Right now, 2018 is shaping up to be a good year for Democrats and a bad one for Republicans. In Congress, the GOP has failed to fulfill their signature campaign promise of repealing Obamacare. Donald Trump garners bad press every day and then amplifies it through his twitter feed. The western world is looking to leaders besides the United States for the first time since World War II. And yesterday a poll came out saying the generic House ballot gives Democrats a 14-point advantage. Those are wave numbers.
So what could change the trajectory of an election that’s still 15 months away? Well, a lot of things could. The Democrats could screw up. The Republicans could get their act together. The economy could continue to improve for a majority of Americans. We could have another terrorist attack. And Donald Trump could stop tweeting. Just kidding.
Democrats, for their part, should continue to focus on the economy and less on Russia and Trump. If the wing of the party that believes 2018 should be a referendum on impeaching Trump wins out, we’ll probably see a backlash against overreach like Republicans hell bent on impeaching Bill Clinton saw 20 years ago. If Robert Mueller and his investigation find evidence of collusion or other wrong doing, then Democrats should let the process play out. Cheering for failure is not a good look.
They could also make protecting the rights of minorities the signature issue of the party in 2018, ignoring the needs of people of all stripes who have been left behind in the global economy. The party is having an argument on whether to focus on white working class voters, many of whom voted for Trump, or motivating minority voters, many of whom sat out the last election. It’s the wrong argument. The minority voters who sat out 2016 did so for the same reason that white voters who supported Obama in 2012 switched to Trump in 2016. They both don’t believe Washington is doing anything for them. It’s not an either-or situation. It’s both–and the economic argument crosses racial lines.
Republicans, for their part, could suddenly find unity and pass some serious legislation. After the failure of Obamacare repeal, they’ve turned to tax reform. That’s probably like moving from the hornet’s nest to the wasp’s nest. The last time we had a significant overhaul of the tax system was in 1986 and it was both contentious and bi-partisan. Taking on such a controversial problem is likely to divide people more than unite them, even if they successfully push it through (see the Affordable Care Act, 2010).
A terrorist attack could throw the election cycle into turmoil. Voters tend to favor Republicans more on national security issues and a large-scale attack could spur nationalism that drives people toward Trump and his anti-immigrant policies. Fear could significantly change the political landscape in the country.
Democrats need to focus on economic issues that provide broad, shared prosperity. Much of the middle class has seen its income stagnate since Reaganomics shifted the tax burden from the wealthy to the middle class and rewarded people who make money from investments more than people who make money from wages. Those policies affected people of all colors and nationalities and that’s who Democrats need in their coalition. The greatest threat to what should be a very successful election cycle for Democrats is a party that looks to divide the country by color, gender, sexuality, nationality, or disability instead of a party that offers a broad unifying message that unites people who just want a little economic security and hope for the future.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, etc. “have suffered defined loses traceable to the fossil fuel industry?” C’mon D.G., voters in those states are not about to buy such alarmist propaganda from the radical left. But let’s hope the Dems keep pushing such nonsense. Higher gasoline prices, imported foreign oil and unemployment in the U.S. energy sector should convince them to support the Democrats, right?
The economic argument can cut across race, ethnicity,, gender and geography, but only if it is also tied to fairness. Pay inequality is a significant factor for many poor or lower income households, especially those headed by a woman or a person of color. There is no rational reason why the connection of these issues cannot be part of a serious approach by the Democrats. And,lest anyone forget, medical costs are still out of sight, particularly drugs, and it remains a critical economic issue and for many a matter of. how long they live.
As for ignoring the Russian issue, personally I put interfering with our election top of my list, but that is definitely not the case for most people. It is something they do not feel they can “fix” and I believe they see little difference between Russian interference and excess money in the election. Or if they grasp gerrymandering, they ask what’s the difference between Russia and those who rig the elections that way? They are not entirely wrong.
Of course the Dems will screw it up. Nothing I hear out of the national Dem apparatus gives me any hope at all. I work with local Dems on the county level because of their energy and dedication. The national party has misread the lesson of the election and is now throwing a major constituency under the bus in an effort to chase those 80k male voters who swung the election towards Trump. If Dems decide they can be squishy on a woman’s right of agency over her own body, then my wallet will clang shut and I will abandon them even on the local level. You thought the pussy hats were bad….
Thomas…Thomas…be of good cheer. Do not fall into the trap of premature pessimism. Remember that song from “Hee Haw?”
“Gloom, despair, agony on me,
Deep, dark, depression,
Excessive misery.
If it weren’t for bad luck.,
I’d have no luck at all.
Gloom despair, agony on me.”
The issues of July, 2017 will be the issues of November, 2018: TRUMP (his possible resignation–not impeachment), the failure of the GOP congress, health care and a “better deal.”
Have a good weekend and peace.
I agree with Walt on this.
Also, we Democrats, as Americans and not just as partisans, must continue to hammer away at the Trump/Russia mess. If somehow this emphasis alienates some voters, so be it. If it costs us the 2018 elections, we will deal with it. Our country and democracy are at stake.
If Hillary Clinton were president and was surrounded by all these allegations, all these Russians, and all this smoke, the Republicans already would be in the process of impeaching her. One reason the GOP has moved so far ahead of Democrats is their brass in moving aggressively against their opponents even when the facts are against them. Well, the facts are not against patriotic Americans and Democrats must dig it regardless of the electoral costs.
Yes the Democrats could screw it up. We are experts are screwing up elections so don’t think we can’t do it. I can say this if the party does not make significant gains this in 2018 then look for heads to roll, in many places. The party will get a completely new look. what that will be I am not sure. It could be anywhere from Bernie Sanders socialism to George W Bush neocon ism and anywhere in between. 2018 is kinda the line in the sand year, having said that I am not sure the party will not find a way to mess it up.
If voters still see the GOP as better on national security than the Democrats, then the country is doomed. It was the GOP that gave us Trump and his legions and ties to Russia. For crying out loud, what’s it going to take to show people that the Republican Party has reversed field on this issue by nominating and electing a temperamentally unfit person to serve as president. This so-called president of the United States is an ongoing national emergeny. The sooner everyone learns this, which they won’t, the better off the country will be. This much I am certain of: The Trump presidency will not end well. It cannot end well regardless of the outcome of the Mueller probe. It is doomed, and to an extent so is our country, because of Donald Trump. Until he leaves office or is removed from office, the country is in a continuing national emergency.
Job, jobs, jobs. It’s the economy, Stupid!
Finally, Thomas Mills and “mainstream” Democrats are beginning to catch on. Democrats can’t win if they just continue to say “We’re not Trump, so vote for us.” They have to speak to the economic and social issues that concern working class and middle class Americans: Universal healthcare, a living minimum wage, free public college tuition, climate change and taking on the fossil fuel industry, the big banks, the pharmaceutical industry- you know the things that Bernie Sanders has been talking about for the past 40 years and you all resisted as “unrealistic” during the 2016 Presidential primary process. Finally. Welcome to reality, Thomas. Better late than never.
I agree completely with the previous comments. However, there is an additional factor that will make it difficult for Democrats even if they stay on message–so many election races from Congress through state legislatures through local offices are now gerrymanders so thoroughly that a challenger must win overwhelmingly to defeat a Rethuglican incumbent.
I never underestimate the ability of Democrats to lose an election.
So let’s hope they go for it. Especially speaking about “…climate change and taking on the fossil fuel industry….” That should convince those working class Americans to support the Democratic Party, particularly in states like Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, North Dakota, Alaska, West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky and Pennsylvania. LOL