The “Rising American Electorate” offers Democrats an opportunity of immense promise. Over the long-term, young/female/non-white voters may well turn North Carolina dark blue. For the time being, however, Democrats shouldn’t let their RAE excitement get the best of them, or throw the blue-dog baby out with the bath water.
Mobilizing the RAE is far easier said than done. For all the “coalition of the ascendant” rhetoric, RAE voters often live on society’s margins. That position breeds deep cynicism about the utility of political action. Before they begin to vote consistently, they must be convinced that the political system cares about their interests. This is a long-term project, and it can’t just be accomplished by equal-pay speeches and gee-whiz technology.
Older, white voters, meanwhile, turn out at high levels. Moreover, those engaged in “red-state” civic organizations like churches and rotary clubs are even more likely to vote. Although they lean Republican, these voters are still winnable. Democrats won the over-60 vote in 2006, the year NC Dems picked up one Congressional seat and nearly bagged another. So the “declining electorate” remains a cache of potential votes.
Writing off the old in favor of the “rising” is particularly self-defeating “down East.” Eastern North Carolinians seem willing to boot several legislators, out-of-touch Charlotte provincials like Tillis and McCrory, there’s no reason these opportunities can’t persist.
Does this mean Dems shouldn’t target RAE’s? Of course not, they should do so aggressively. But rising voters, except perhaps for college students, are a heavy lift in an era of scarce Democratic resources. It’d be negligent not to try to reclaim some of the traditional base.
Alexander Jones is an original contributor to PoliticsNC.
0 Comments