The latest poll from PPP – wherein they find HB 2 “deeply unpopular” – actually looks to me to be pretty good news for Governor Pat McCrory. At the very least, it’s not bad news. The important thing is that PPP failed to replicate the Elon poll which found Roy Cooper ahead by 6 points. Despite all the fallout over HB 2, the governor trails Cooper by just 1 point.
And as for that “deeply unpopular” HB 2, the actual numbers say something different. 36% support the new law, 45% are opposed. One can say that HB 2 is deeply unpopular, but looking at it another way: opposition to the law doesn’t even muster a majority, despite the media outrage over the past couple of weeks.
I would also guess that, like polling the gay marriage question, there are quite a few “undecided” voters who really do support HB 2 but don’t want to admit it, even to an automated pollster. Put all that together and I think you’ll find HB 2 splits the state right down the middle – maybe a few more are opposed than not, and a whole lot of people really not caring one way or another.
Of course, the breakdown over HB 2 really isn’t what’s relevant. What is relevant is how voters feel about the economic impact of the law, and unsurprisingly the verdict is that it’s done damage to the state’s economy and the state’s brand. If the gubernatorial election is a referendum on HB 2, that’s a fight the governor and his team probably want to have. If it’s a referendum on the economic impact, then Roy Cooper is probably the next governor.
So we have Cooper ahead by 1, despite McCrory’s approval rating being at 40/49 and HB 2’s numbers being 36/45. What that means is that we have a fair number of people who both disapprove of Governor McCrory and of HB 2 but are voting for McCrory anyway. He’ll need to keep this disapproving bloc in his corner if he wants to win a second term. Right now, he’s still got them. Because we’ve been hearing nonstop about HB 2 over the past month, that’s pretty good news for him.
This is not to say that HB 2 was a good idea politically, or that McCrory is favored for reelection. Maybe if not for HB 2, McCrory would be ahead by 4 or 5 points and we’d be talking about how Cooper is now the definitive underdog. It’s just to say that despite all the bad headlines, McCrory is still hanging in there – for now.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Another long harangue, D.g.? It shouldn’t take you so many words to make so little sense.
The report on state revenue collections comes from the NCGA’s professional FISCAL research staff. These are the accountants, economists and financial analysts whose job is to monitor the actual data and issue fiscal reports on the status of the state’s financial resources. They are not making these trends up for some partisan purpose. If they did, they would soon be proven wrong.
I know these trends don’t support your partisan ideology. You can look for all the “facts and figures” you want, but you won’t find a more credible source on such matters.
Oh wow, now you’re playing amateur phycologist. If you could charge by the word, you could make a lot of money even when you make so little sense. LOL
From Bloomberg.com, March 31, 2016
“North Carolina’s relative economic success may help explain McCrory’s surprise that voters have been attracted by Trump’s fiery rhetoric. The Tar Heel state is the nation’s ninth-largest with a population of more than 10 million, overtaking Michigan and New Jersey since 2000.”
“Its economic health has improved faster than any other state’s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on employment, personal income, home prices, mortgage delinquency, tax revenue and the value of corporate equity. It ranked second behind Oregon during the first three quarters of 2015. That’s up from 13th place since the fourth quarter of 2013 and 19th since the end of 2012.”
“While the North Carolina’s 5.5 percent unemployment rate remains above the national average of 4.9 percent, it’s now less than half of the record-high 11.3 percent reached in the first quarter of 2010, in the aftermath of the worst recession since the Great Depression. The drop in joblessness over the past six years is a clear signal that North Carolina’s economic performance began to improve before McCrory took office in 2013.”
Wages, Stocks
“Still, wage growth is accelerating, and shares from companies headquartered in the state have gained 49 percent since 2013, outperforming the Russell 3000 Index.”
D.g., It must be comforting to you to ignore any objective information that doesn’t fit into your preconceived doctrinaire notions of the way things oughta be . The following statement on NC’s economic progress, dated March 31, 2016, is from Bloomberg.com, a respected nonpartisan business web site:
North Carolina’s “economic health has improved faster than any other state’s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on employment, personal income, home prices, mortgage delinquency, tax revenue and the value of corporate equity. ”
But hey, why not ignore your lying eyes if that makes you feel better.
More good news on NC’s economic success from that right wing operation, WRAL.
http://www.wral.com/north-carolina-revenue-collections-continue-upward-climb/15688144/
You’re the one who selectively ignores information that doesn’t fit you world view, D.g., You must have skipped over the very first sentence in WRAL’s news release. Higher than expected CORPORATE tax collections are why state revenues are beating projections. Not individual income tax collections, which were about as expected. Not sales tax collections which were less than projected.
I realize you’re not real swift when it comes to understanding economics, but this one should be easy even for a liberal to comprehend. There is one major reason corporate tax collections are booming even though corporate tax rates have been slashed by the GOP– business is booming in NC due to lower taxes and a friendly pro business stance from state government.
I suspect you really don’t follow the logic of all of this as you obviously misunderstood the initial news release. But maybe some of your fellow Democrats will come to the realization that claiming a poor state economy under GOP leadership is a big, transparent lie that the public is just not gonna buy.
OMG, you’re threatening me with personal insults? LOL! If I’d had been intimidated by your personal insults, I would have withdraw from this blog months ago.
BTW, the state tax standard deduction has been more than doubled giving all average middle class and below tax payers a substantial tax break without advantaging only those who could meet special conditions for deductions. The claim that “average residents” are paying more is a big, partisan lie.
And the fact that corporate tax collections are exceeding projections is not an assumption. It is the result of analysis of tax returns by the NCGA’s professional (and nonpartisan) fiscal research that staff. They are just doing their job by advising the General Assembly of how much revenue will become available and the reasons for any increase or decrease.
First, NC unemployment rate is not a “little higher;” only 13 states have a higher unemployment rate.
That stock “but there are so many people coming here” response is tedious and inane. It ignores the fact that, while the state’s population and in-migration is growing, too many of those people are WITHOUT jobs—and without any innovative state jobs programs and with very limited unemployment assistance to help them get on their feet.
One would think that a unique and fired-up “Carolina Comeback” should have fueled enough jobs so that NC’s unemployment rate might be less than the rate in neighboring VA (or in TX, or FL, or TN, or PA, or NY, or MD, for that matter). But it isn’t. There has been no extraordinary NC economic comeback coming out of the recession. Rather, it’s been of the pedestrian variety—better than some states, worse than others.
Again, one can ignore basic economic principles, but one can’t refute them. You just can’t reconcile your claim that although NC’ s population is expanding through net in migration, there are few jobs available here. Reality may be tedious to you, but it is patiently obvious to those who understand economic concepts.
NC employment growth and personal income growth have outpaced the national average since 2013. These trends attract people seeking jobs and higher incomes, thus the continuing net immigration from other states and areas. The unemployment rate is a secondary indicator and, in this instance, actually supports the fact that the state is experiencing steady economic growth. Unemployed people from other states move here to find employment. States experiencing net out migration often see their unemployment rate reduced. States with net in migration often have an above average unemployment rate. Econ 101.
D.G., once again you are having difficulty comprehending basic economic concepts. Since 2013, when the GOP took over NC state government, personal income GROWTH has outpaced the national average and is in the top ten among the states. This data comes not from NC sources, but from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. No one is claiming personal income is higher in NC than in many other states, only that we are experiencing faster economic growth under GOP leadership.
Personal income in NC has never been higher or equal to personal income in most of the NE or west coast states, but the cost of living here is considerably less. Personal income took a big hit in all states from the 09-10 recession. The important indicator now is how well states are recovering from the effects of the recession. Since 2013, the federal data show NC is doing quite well.
I know that’s not the message Democrats want to spin in this election year. So you and other liberals can try to ignore economic trends, but try as you might, you can’t refute them.
And you and your regressive friends can try to ignore the fact that the GOP-led NCGA has been in fiscal and programmatic control of state matters since 2011, not just since 2013. Try as you might, and unless you are naive and ignorant enough to believe that McCrory’s proposed budgets have had any impact at all on final annual state budgets, you can’t refute it.
Your use of 2013 as your baseline date is pure partisan cherry-picking.
Five years of GOP state budgeting and program fiscal control and NC is not much above being an also-ran among the states on most economic indices.
Actually, the state has done pretty well economically since 2011 despite the impacts of the recession. Remember the NCGA repealed the “temporary” state sales tax increase despite Governor Perdue’s veto. 2013 is a relevant time frame because Democrats are harshly critical of Governor McCrory and that is the time frame since he has held the office.
LOL. Ebrun. Your trolling tactics/tendencies are predictable and unrelenting.
So, you go from speaking about NC’s economy since 2013 in rosiest terms, from “fastest growing economy,” to “ranked near the top among US states in employment and personal income,” and to how it “outpaced the national average.”
But when braced about not using 2011 as the baseline, the best you can manage is a vague and qualified “Actually, the state has done pretty well economically since 2011 despite the impacts of the recession”? Where are all your rose-colored stats and claims?
They are nowhere, because NC’s economy since 2011 under GOP rule has been one big “meh.” It’s easy to see. Nothing special. No formal jobs efforts. Piddling expansion incentive program. Limited unemployment assistance to help folks between jobs. No expansion of Medicaid (which most studies show could have generated billions annually in economic impact). Recent big bad hits due to HB2 fallout. A Carolina Crawlback. It’s Econ 401. Way beyond your grade level.
Oh, now I get where you’re coming from, A.L. You judge how well a state’s economy is doing by how many public assistance (i.e., welfare) programs the state provides. Or is it how much public money the state spends on entitlements (i.e., hand outs)? Or is it how much the state subsidizes national and international corporations (i.e., corporate welfare) to locate here? But reduced taxes on all state citizens is of no import, right?
Sorry, but this is nothing that is taught in a legitimate economics course. You seem to be confusing the principles of market economics with Welfare Socialism.
No, you are blind. I judge a state’s economy by whether it has enough jobs available via the private sector (NC doesn’t), whether it is attracting big businesses into the state (NC isn’t; in fact it’s driving them away). And I judge state leaders on economic matters by whether they are trying to help develop the human resourses needed by free enterprise (NC’s aren’t), and not just cutting taxes and keeping their fingers crossed (which is what the GOP does here in NC). The NCGOP does nothing except count on a growing population. The results are the Carolina Crawlback.
http://cprnc.org/n-c-creating-jobs-30-faster-than-national-average/
Great. An 8 month old article, based on 9-month old data and from a biased source. Give up, will you?
And, please, do conveniently keep ignoring the hit to the state’s economy since HB2.
Guess you didn’t notice the quote from Bloomberg.com. a respected, nonpartisan business web site, that I posted for D.g.
From Bloomberg.com, March 31, 2016
“North Carolina’s relative economic success may help explain McCrory’s surprise that voters have been attracted by Trump’s fiery rhetoric. The Tar Heel state is the nation’s ninth-largest with a population of more than 10 million, overtaking Michigan and New Jersey since 2000.”
“Its economic health has improved faster than any other state’s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on employment, personal income, home prices, mortgage delinquency, tax revenue and the value of corporate equity. It ranked second behind Oregon during the first three quarters of 2015. That’s up from 13th place since the fourth quarter of 2013 and 19th since the end of 2012.”
https://www.carolinajournal.com/opinion-article/nc-sees-income-gains/
http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2016/03/08/by-gdp-n-c-had-fastest-growing-large-economy-in.html
http://wraltechwire.com/north-carolina-2016-economic-forecast-projects-111-000-new-jobs-stable-growth/15163775/
Forecast (not fact) was made over a year old (Dec 2015). But do keep on trying to paint the NC comeback as something it is not,,,,,,
Dec 2015 was over a year ago? Not on my calendar. But no need to believe your lying eyes. Just pretend these positive NC economic trends don’t exist.
My error on the dating.
But your error on interpreting a forecast from a wonk as factual “positive NC economic trends.”
But take heart. You will likely learn about the difference between predictions and proof in your first couple of years in college……
Self delusion is ok if it makes you feel better. Don’t worry about all those positive trends, just keep believin’ you’re right and the stats are all wrong.
http://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article77287702.htm
But, please, do go on about how great the Carolina Comeback is.
And feel free to dismiss this because it wasn’t fashioned by the NCGA fiscal staff, or by one of your business-focused rags.
And try not to snicker too much in teenaged glee because it addresses the middle-class decline in our state’s metro-areas — ya know, those dens of iniquity that GOP’ers have waged war of since 2011.
And, lastly, don’t bother blaming it on previous state administrations, or the Dems, or Obama — unless, of course, you want to again evidence your warped sense of reality.
Enjoy!
You’re link to the N&O is phony. Seems their web site can’t find it.
Just add an “l” (as in html) to the end. Unless you are afraid……
So Pew looked at NC incomes from 1999 to 2014. Let’s see now, Democrats ran the state for 11 of those years, Republicans for 3 (or 2 if you count the governorship.) So what was your point?
http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2016/05/10/ceos-give-north-carolina-high-marks-for-business.html?utm_source=Blog+Daily+-+Combined&utm_campaign=4ba6cafecc-
First, Who cares what CEO’s—1%’ers, sinfully overpaid—think.
Second, NC stays in its position form last year, while SC moves from 10th to 7th.
Lastly, the survey was taken BEFORE HB2 and its fall-out, and BEFORE over 200 major corporations expressed concern/dissatisfaction with that law.
So we should care about what 200 corporations think of HB2, but no one should care that 500 corporate CEOs think NC is a great place to do business? Another liberal double standard.
Maybe because those surveys are filled out and submitted by individual CEO’s (or the lower-rung person that the task is delegated to)? In contrast, corporate statements/stances on such controversial legislative matters like HB2 —that can affect sales and market share positively or negatively—are matters that their entire upper admin and/or board of directors have input on? Ya think?
Hardly a double standard on my part; rather the mixing of apples and oranges on you part.
But I understand your confusion. It’s how teenage trolls roll……
NC is one of the fastest growing states in terms of population and has had the fastest growing economy since the first quarter of 2013 when Governor McCrory was sworn-in. Even the News and Observer’s political fact checkers rate these claims as “True.”
From NC Politifact, Raleigh News and Observer, April 28, 2016.
“McCrory is right that North Carolina has “one of the fastest growing populations.”
“As for the economy, North Carolina did have the fastest-growing GDP in the country between the first quarter of 2013, when McCrory took office, and the third quarter of 2015. The pace has slowed recently, but that doesn’t change the truth of the statement.
“We rate this claim as True.”
D.g., Why no citations and hyperlinks to those “several publications that have ranked NC as being in the lower half of the growth spectrum?” A cynic might question your partisanship or even your veracity.
But no matter what left wing sources you refer too, I’ll trust the federal government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis statistics as BEA has a stellar reputation for nonpartisan statistical collection and analysis.
Dg: He only likes U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited when they can be construed to portray NC as an amazing economic engine.
And, from past posts/discourse here, it’s clear that he hates that NC unemployment rate figure.
Since 2013, NC has ranked near the top among U.S. states in employment, personal income and population growth. Probably never occurs to liberals to ask why people keep coming here. It’s for economic opportunity. The creation of new jobs here brings new people here seeking better jobs and higher incomes.
The influx of new residents will keep the state’s unemployment rate a little above the national average. As unemployed workers move here from other states, the unemployment rate in those states losing working age population declines.
Those who are economically illiterate can ignore basic economic principles, but they can’t refute them.
The Good Ol’ Party has done a better job than the Democrats in spinning HB2. The GOP keeps making it about keeping our po’ lil’ children safe in bathrooms, when it’s really a bill out preventing anti-discrimination ordinances and about keeping local control firm in the centralized hand of the GA.
I generally agree with Mr. Wynne’s analysis, although I’m not happy about it.
However, and it’s a big HOWEVER, I don’t think the economic fallout from HB2 has all come home to roost yet. Just a day or two ago it was announced that a big, 500-person convention set for the Omni Grove Park Inn in Asheville has canceled due to the bill. That’s not peanuts for the Grove Park Inn or for Asheville, and there will be many more to come.
If Roy Cooper is as smart as I think he is, he’ll keep the issue focused squarely on the economic fallout and on the damage to the state’s hard-won and very expensively gained national brand as a middle-of-the-road progressive Southern state.
We spend millions every month on tourism and business development promotion, and Buck Newton and Pat McCrory undo that in one day.
You can’t assert there are “voters who really do support HB2 but don’t want to admit it” and not acknowledge that others among the 9 percent undecided might privately oppose HB2 — and expect your claim to have any credibility.
But note that there’s 11% undivided in the poll, and undivideds usually break 2:1 or better against the incumbent. I’ve said since 2013 that Roy Cooper would beat McCrory without breaking a sweat, and I maintain that’s still the case. For an incumbent to be behind at this stage is bad news, and to be behind and 9 points underwater is a death knell. HB2 gifted the governorship to the Dems.
Do you think voters are going to start liking McCrory again for some reason? He’s been spineless, dishonest, and incompetent. He looks weak and out of his depth. Until he becomes someone else, voters know him and don’t particularly like him. That isn’t going to change.
Has anyone tracked the performance of the Elon poll over time? It always seems to track to the left a bit. McCrory hoped for a bump with with the bathroom bill. When it morphed into the bathroom plus bill, that ended. At best it will be a wash for him.
The wording and logical contortions you always go through, Mr. Wynne, to conjure up good omens for GOP’ers and bad omens for Dems never ceases to amaze. Undulate. Twist. Gyrate. Spin. Rinse. Repeat.
IMO, if the steady stream of HB2-related condemnations, cancellations, withdrawals of business investment, and tabulations of lost convention/tourist trade continues for the next 6 months, I believe Cooper will win a tight race, and the GOP will not gain any seats (and maybe lose a few) in the GA.
But, if major shoes fall along the way (like the NBA cancelling Charlotte’s All-Star Game; or major corporations actually leaving the state (or evidence coming to light that companies looking for location sites are dismissing NC from consideration) due to HB2; or state/municipal revenues and employment declines are linked to HB2’s adverse impact on tourism and convention trade), then McCrory will be ousted by a large margin, and the GOP super-majority could disappear.