There’s another poll that shows the Democratic advantage is holding in North Carolina. The Survey USA poll done for Spectrum News shows Democrats have an edge in the generic ballots for both Congress and legislature. It also shows that Trump is unpopular in the state while Roy Cooper has honeymoon-like approval numbers.
In the poll, the Democratic advantage in legislative races is most stark. Forty-four percent of the people say they would vote for a Democrat if the election were held tomorrow. Thirty-seven percent prefer a Republican. Independents choose a Democrat by a fourteen point margin.
Those numbers look like the makings of a wave. Other polls have shown an enthusiasm gap that heavily favors Democrats. If the middle breaks for Democrats by double digits, and the GOP has even a slightly depressed turnout, Democrats will have a big night in November. There’s a long way to go and a whole legislative session to change those numbers, though.
In the Congressional ballot, Democrats have a much more narrow margin. Voters favor them by only three points, 44% to 41%. Still, the independents prefer a Democrat by nine points and the poll also shows a significant gender gap. Women prefer a Democrat by an eight point margin while men prefer a Republican by two. That’s a ten point gap. Women seem to be motivated this cycle.
Trump is still unpopular in the state with 50% of the people disapproving of his job performance, 43% approving. Republicans are sticking with their man with 82% approving. Independents, though, disapprove by 50% to 40%, again numbers that bode ill for the GOP in November.
Cooper, in contrast, enjoys a favorability rating of 49% approve to 26% disapprove. A majority of independents approve and even almost a third of Republicans do. Cooper certainly isn’t suffering from his battles with GOP legislature and will help Democrats in the fall.
If Republicans want to help Democrats even more, they should continue to work on rigging elections and denying people the right to vote for judges. Voters are clearly dissatisfied with a party that keeps playing politics while ignoring more pressing needs like underfunded schools. Republicans can go into the short session, pass a bunch of constitutional amendment designed to motivate their base and further alienate the independents they need to win.
While GOP crows about the strong economy, too few North Carolinians are enjoying the benefits of it. Wages are still low, even if unemployment is, too. Most people aren’t feeling the benefits of the much heralded tax cuts from the federal or state government so the GOP doesn’t have much to run on.
Democrats, for their part, need to stop talking about impeaching the president. If the election becomes too much about Trump’s survival, Trumpkins who might sit out the election could get motivated. Democrats should go into the election hammering the GOP for exploding the debt and deficit to pay for tax cuts that haven’t trickled down yet and probably never will.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
We all know the old saying, the Democrats never miss an opportunity to screw up an opportunity. If they continue to talk about impeachment they will indeed continue that trend.
Democrats, please listen to what Mr. Mills has to say in this article.
I still believe that Democrats need to stress the fact that the GOP thoroughly has sold out the poor-and middlle-classes. The GOP continues to shaft ordinary American by stripping them of Medicare, Medicaid, and the overall social safety net, including Social Security. The run against the latter is coming. Just watch!
Still, if I were a congressional candidate, I would talk about the danger posed by the incumbent president. A politician, after all, has a role to educate. I would tell my potential constituents why Mr. Trump must go and why the Democratic Party should be placed in charge of government again.
As a voter, it really is enough for me that the Congress should be controlled by rational men and women, not ideologues of the far right or left. The president should appeal to our best angels, not to our fears and demons.
I am not big on catchy political phrases. I simply want some decency in high and low offices. I want a president in whom I can trust, not wone guilty of telling 3,001 lies.
While I am not sure what will be the best platform for Democrats, I agree that a rational president (or any elected official, for that matter) whose conduct encourages the best in all of us is desirable. Very, very tired of the chaos and daily ugly tweets.
As for the poll, yes, it is encouraging, but we should keep in mind that research shows that to win in a seriously gerrymandered state, the candidates need to overcome a 7% plus in the voting just from the impact of gerrymandering. Not easy.
You nailed it. For those skeptics, who read PoliticsNC, the empirical evidence (special elections and polls) has not changed now for months. You can argue that the election is still far off and that some extraordinary event may change these trends. But for national and state Republicans that is whistling past the graveyard. Furthermore, polling research tells us that these opinions are strongly held which means they are not very susceptible to capricious change.
Campaign consultant, Thomas Mills, just gave North Carolina Democrats a winning strategy–and there was no charge for it. Gasp.