Democrats Looking Strong in Wake

by | May 15, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Democrats, Features, NCGOP | 8 comments

In the second-largest county in the state, there are dark clouds on the horizon for the GOP. Despite a midterm turnout that should favor Republicans, they’re on track to lose control of the Wake County Board of Commissioners. Republicans right now have four out of seven seats on the Commission, and all four of their incumbents are up for reelection. To maintain control of the Board, they can’t afford to lose a single seat.

But if the latest financial reports are any indication, they’re on track to lose all four of them. Despite having the advantage of incumbency, all four Republican commissioners trailed their Democratic challengers. In November, despite a GOP tide, we could see Democrats with all 7 seats, mirroring the situation on the county’s School Board, where there are 8 Democrats and 1 RINO. This, in a county where Mitt Romney still won about 45% of the vote.

What’s going on in Wake? With a map that should favor Republicans, the School Board situation is unacceptable. But the situation with the Commissioners is a bit more understandable. While the Commissioners technically are elected to represent certain districts, they’re actually elected at-large. In a 55-44 Obama county, that should naturally yield a strong Democratic advantage, and possibly a situation where they control all seven seats.

The only thing going for Republicans is that they’re running in a midterm year (the three Democratic incumbents are all elected in presidential years). Unfortunately, Wake is trending Democratic – slowly, but surely. Consider: in 2006, in a terrible Republican year, the four GOP candidates running for the Board of Commissioners averaged 51.89% of the vote. In 2010, a great Republican year, the GOP averaged 52.09% of the vote. That year, Republicans took back the Board by winning all four of the seats on the ballot, but they were all pretty close victories, and unless the environment is as good for the GOP as it was in 2010, Democrats are favored in Wake.

Remember, Republicans need a clean sweep to maintain control. Democrats only need to take back one, and they have recruited a very strong crop of candidates to do so. In part, the fundraising disparity reflects the belief that Democrats will indeed take back the Board.

What can Republicans do about this? It’s clear that continuing to have Commissioners elected at-large is an untenable situation for the GOP. It’s getting to the point where Republicans simply can’t win countywide in Wake, even in a midterm year. There’s a way around this: change to the district method of electing Commissioners, which could be argued from a good-government perspective. Different communities have different interests, and they deserve someone who will represent them and only them.

Also, no at-large seats. That would likely result in Democrats getting elected. Instead, draw a map with three strong urban Democratic seats and four Republican-leaning seats in the suburbs. Next, have the three Democratic seats on the ballot in presidential years, with the suburban seats voted on in midterm years. If they really want to make things interesting, they can hold the elections in May instead of November. Fortunately for Republicans, the General Assembly has the power to swoop in and do just that. They’ve already done something similar in Guilford County. Pretty soon, Wake County could be getting the same treatment.

8 Comments

  1. larry

    Ahhhhh a Republican idea….when you do not like the outcome, change the rules. Rather than approach a loss by rule change why not look at what your policies are, what you stand for do they reflect the community? .In Wake County you can bet the majority do not buy into the GOP policies… or brand not matter how you try to gerry rig the rules.

  2. Mick

    And you actually said “Fortunately, the General Assembly has the power to swoop in and do just that.” Arrgggh…..

    With all due respect, John, why should anything be done at all? If Wake is trending Democratic, so be it. How can having the NCGA interlope in and change things around so that their ilk might hold onto some power longer be more fair or more representative for citizens? Whatever happened to the GOP belief in elections, smaller government and local decision-making?

    I know—and still abhor— what the NCGA did with its super-majority in badly gerrymandering congressional and General Assembly districts, just to hold onto seats in the face of growing progressivism in the state. Their abuse of redistricting via the convoluted gerrymander exceeded anything the Dems had done before.

    I say “no” to your notion. I’m for having 7 Dems take their rightful, elected place on the Board, if that’s what voters decide. If the Dems screw up, they’ll be voted out. That’s how democracy works. And take heart! Maybe there will come a time when the GOP stops taking its marching orders from external and internal extremists, and voters, even in Democrat-leaning counties, will actually find many GOP candidates to be thoughtful, innovative, caring, and viable alternative choices. I did say “maybe,” mind you……

  3. Paleo Tek

    NCGA did something very similar in Buncombe County, which is considerably less blue than Wake. They turned 1 at-large chair and 6 at large seats into 1 at-large chair, two very blue urban districts, and 4 barely red outlying districts. Buncombe Dems broke the gerrymander in a presidential year on one of the outlying seats by a whopping 17 votes, keeping Buncombe Blue. But twas a closely run thing, and that incumbent is now up for election in an off year.

    Needless to say, this didn’t win NCGA much love from the middle, but who plays to the middle anymore?

  4. Alex Jones

    I don’t mean to be rude, but isn’t this called “rigging elections”? In effect, you are arguing for changing the electoral process to guarantee results contrary to the majority’s will. That may be fair to an unpopular party establishment, but it is offensive to the voters and to the very concept of democratic legitimacy. Those who are elected should not change the rules by which those who elected them must play. Of course, some Republicans–I am not accusing you of this–have reverted to 18th-century anti-democracy arguments, so such procedural abuses may appeal to them.

    • Paleo Tek

      Alex, you’re right, this is offensive to the concept of legitimacy. In his latest, David & Goliath, Malcolm Gladwell explains three requisites for government authority to be perceived as legitimate: it must be predictable, it must be fair, and people need to feel that have a voice. The NC GOP is failing miserably on two of those, and I’m not sure how predictable they are, either.

      • Thomas Ricks

        Quite predictable. They are always pro oligarchy, pro anti whatever Obama is, and pro control of your life as long except Guns and Taxes.

    • John Wynne

      Of course I don’t endorse gerrymandering, having the vote held in May, etc. This is just an exercise in what the General Assembly could do, if they wanted to. I do think there’s some merit to the idea of having at least some of the Commissioners elected by district instead of all of them at-large, but that’s the only change that can be supported on good government grounds. The rest would be purely political and like you said, would be subversive to democratic legitimacy.

      • Thomas Ricks

        Why do only Western States get referrendums for when their legislatures go Rogue?

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