Democrats today are in a better position than Republicans were in June 2010

by | Jun 13, 2018 | 2018 elections, Editor's Blog | 7 comments

The closer we get to November, the more it looks like the election will be a referendum on Donald Trump. Last night in Republican primaries, Trump-type candidates won. In Virginia, Cory Stewart, who lost a primary for governor last year after wrapping himself in the Confederate flag, won the nomination to take on Democratic incumbent US Senator Tim Kaine. In South Carolina, incumbent Republican Congressman and former Governor Mark Sanford lost his bid for re-election to a pro-Trump opponent. Trump even weighed in with an anti-Sanford tweet in the final hours.

As political prognosticator Larry Sabato tweeted, “As if more evidence was needed, the Republican party is now the Trump party almost everywhere.” Conservative writer and commentator Erick Erickson best described what that means when he tweeted, “…[T]he GOP is not really a conservative party that cares about limited government. It is now fully a cult of personality.” The GOP now supports an agenda that rejects free trade, supports dictators over democracy, subverts the rule of law and ignores human rights.  They call it Making America Great Again and 90% of Republicans support it because of courts, regulations and taxes.

On the Democratic side, some of the handwringing and angst of the last few weeks subsided. The Congressional generic ballot, which had gotten inside of five points, is back up to eight points according to the Real Clear Politics average. To put that in perspective, in 2010, the generic ballot midterm following Obama’s election was a dead heat in mid-June. In November, Republicans won in the biggest wave in 70 years.

In Wisconsin, last night, Democrats won another state senate seat in a district Trump carried by 17 points.Democrats will almost certainly do well this year. They need to keep calm and carry on, as the saying goes, and not get hung up on the weekly polling averages.

North Carolina is no exception to this trend. The GOP in North Carolina was Trumpist before Trump. Like conservatives nationally, the ones in North Carolina have overlooked the illiberal policies of the Republican legislators and rationalized that tax cuts and deregulation justify voter suppression, authoritarian interference into local governments, rigging the judiciary  and general disrespect for the rights of minorities.

Like elections past, Democrats in North Carolina are motivated. In 2014, those voters mitigated what was a mini-GOP wave nationally. In 2016, their enthusiasm helped put Roy Cooper in the Governor’s Mansion and elect Josh Stein attorney general. This year, Democrats hope that sustained enthusiasm will be boosted by overall low turnout in a blue moon election and independents’ rejection of Trumpism.

Republicans will try to boost enthusiasm with an amendment to boost voter ID and other amendments that will likely be on the ballot.  That might be a hard sell with the Trump administration now trying to bring back pre-existing conditions that would deny health insurance for millions of people. The generic ballot combined with the outcome of special elections makes the election look difficult for Republicans. Democrats today are in a far better position than Republicans were in 2010 at this point in the election cycle. The lesson should be that a lot can change between now and November.

7 Comments

  1. Rick Gunter

    I probably have said it before, but it needs to be said again: The country is in a crisis and many Americans are suffering from amnesia.

    This election come down to a referendum on Mr. Trump. Every issue of worth is secondary to putting brakes on this fool who occupies the presidency and got there through very suspect means.

    Democrats and bob and weave. But they need to discuss that. You can bet the next rent payment that if the situation was reversed and the president was a Democratic Trump that Republicans would be going after him by the hour. Hannity would be doing meltdowns on the country’s perilous situation.

    The goal has to be be to regain control of at least one chamber of the Congress. To regain total control (both houses) may be a stretch. But game is on and Democrats should make the effort of a lifetime to win every seat on the ballot.

    I still believe Mr. Trump’s fate will be much clearer within a couple of months. That is when Americans are going to be tested as never before in my lifetime, and I turn 74 this coming Monday.

  2. smartysmom

    Excuse me, what has changed???? The same people who elected Trump before are still there, motivated by the same things! I do not understand why you would think the election results would be different??? Especially now that The Donald can claim such a big foreign policy win.

    I still think we are reenacting “The Fall of the Roman Empire” Thus proving that leaving government in the hands of the stupidest, least educated 50% is a “lose-lose” scenario. And I would like to point out that the founding fathers did not want universal suffrage

    • A. D. Reed

      What “foreign policy win”? Trump just gave Kim Jong Un the platform of a world stage with “the leader of the free world,” after 70 years of isolation because of his and his father’s and grandfather’s murderous records. He gave away (without even consulting with S. Korea, our ally of 65 years) the joint military exercises under the excuse they were — in Kim Jong Un’s and Donald Trump’s word — “provocative. He claimed that Kim has ended nuclear testing at one site, because of his intervention — when in reality that site was a mountain that collapsed during its fifth underground test.

      The two-page agreement requires no retrenchment, no elimination of nuclear weapons or technology, no verification, no timelines, not a single specific. Only Trump’s assurance that Kim “is very smart and has a great sense of humor.” (and is a far better deal-maker than the idiot-in-chief).

      What did America get? NOTHING! Bubkas. Crickets. Zilch. Nada. Nada g-d thing.

      This is a foreign policy triumph?

      Democrats have flipped 43 Republican legislative seats this cycle; Republicans have flipped one Democratic seat.

      The difference between two years ago and this year is simple: two years ago the Russians did their best to interfere with the election in key states, James Comey threw the election toward Trump in the final week of the campaign, Democrats were dispirited, and angry, ignorant Republicans were energized and starry-eyed because of a dimwitted TV star. This year Democrats are incredibly energized, and Republican voters — yes, those same ignorant, low-intelligence, greed-in-their-eyes GOP voters, are not turning out in any state in the country in the same numbers they did in 2016. Democrats are doing so in droves.

      Of course, if you want to believe the GOP has a permanent lock on our nation, and therefore plan to sit at home and be cynical, you can help make your own prediction come true. On the other hand, if you love America and love North Carolina, you’ll get off your lazy, cynical downer and work to get out the vote and Make America America Again.

  3. Jay Ligon

    Following the triumph of Trump in November 2016, liberals did the liberal thing. Using touchy-feely language, they tried to understand why blue-collar working people, the poor and the uneducated voted against the Democrats and in favor of a lying, cheating, thieving sexual predator and why they were so angry, so willing to throw bombs at the American body politic. At first blush, it looked like they were voting against their own interests, and they were conned by a predator.

    But the inquiry revealed some things about the Trump Party. Apparently, neo-Nazis and racists don’t like being reminded that they are racists and Nazis. Who knew? And now we know that they can get testy if you remind them that they aren’t well-informed. They will kill you. One of them murdered a young woman in Charlottesville. No word from the White House yet whether the killer was one of the “good” Nazis.

    Apparently, the ignorance that runs through our trailer parks, our unemployment lines, our wrestling exhibitions, and our monster truck rallies cannot be cured by donning a red baseball cap. Again, who knew? The brain housed under the MAGA cap still needs to read a book, take a course in computer technology, or math, English or history or government. Getting all your information from a lying, cheating, thieving, philandering con man exacerbates the problem of ignorance, according to scientists. Most importantly, they should stop watching state-run propaganda on Fox News. As Forest Gump said: “Stupid is a stupid does, Sir.”

    Battered Republicans are in an abusive relationship with a serial abuser. Just as he abuses his wives by savage beating, public humiliation, and cheating, he abuses his supporters using the standard forms of abuse.

    Standard forms of control include Trump’s threats, constant criticism, mind games, manipulation, or threats of physical violence. Malice is the root of his criticism. Chronic shaming wears everyone down, erodes confidence and makes Republicans doubt themselves and their self-worth. Criticism can also be disguised as jokes. When Trump is called out on his most outrageous comments, he claims those comments were jokes, but no one has ever laughed.

    Trump is making the country, the press and his supporters crazy using gaslighting. Gaslighting is the most “crazy-making” of the forms of emotional abuse. Trump denies he said things that were recorded, shown on television and known to the entire world. He lies about his lies. Without video evidence, you would begin to believe that your memory is unreliable, but Republicans do not believe their own lying eyes. They believe the lying liar. And the press always seemed surprized when he does it even for the 3,000th time.

    Trump always makes the conversation about himself and postures himself as the victim even when he is being emotionally abusive calling others names, demeaning and belittling anyone who disagrees with him. We do not engage in high-minded debate now. We are worn out by trash talk and vulgarities.

    His supporters are both victims and perpetrators of his abuse. Many of them want a better life for themselves, and they have invested heavily in the empty promises made by the con man. They then turn on their fellow Americans. Trumpism is what they want to do to others. They want to bring the pain to the non-believers. They want to see suffering at the border, anguish along the wall, torture abroad, and sickness and death in their own neighborhoods as health care plans evaporate.

    In their bargain with the devil, Republicans have given up on everything they ever stood for: Balanced budgets ( no more,) the rule of law (forget it,) ethical government (no way,) free trade (you are kidding,) exporting democratic ideals (nope,) or advocating human rights (no more.)

    Republicans have gotten on their knees to worship an Orange God who sits on a golden toilet. They stand for nothing.

  4. Peter Harkins

    Ah, Thomas.

    Yep, it seems we Dems are close to regaining a majority in the US House, and at least mitigating the super majorities held by our Repub friends here in NC.

    But can we remember to watch our appetites? We seem to differ from cannibals primarily in our preference to chew up our colleagues. 🙂

    Uncle Grumpy

    • Norma Munn

      Dear Uncle Grumpy, yes, Democrats excel at arguing among themselves regardless of the significance of difference in view, policy or whether they are in the majority. It is not an endearing trait. Personally, I decided decades ago that they subscribe the lawyer’s approach, i.e., “a distinction without a difference.”

      Is anyone who has been through this experience before with the Dems willing to take a bet on November’s outcome? My bet is the House, maybe, but probably not. The Senate, no. In NC, some wins, but not enough. On the idiot ID Amendment, I am undecided. I think it depends on turnout, and could surprise me. Any takers?

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