Ever since the inauguration of Donald Trump, progressives have been marching and organizing. At the national level, the movement was kicked off by the Women’s March that drew more people than Trump’s inauguration. On the local level, groups like Indivisible sprung up attracting people to meetings and holding town hall meetings. In North Carolina, it felt like the energy of the Moral Monday groups had spread across the nation.
All of these organizations spurred a sense of momentum heading into the 2018 midterm elections. The feeling has been backed up by polls that show a yawning enthusiasm gap that favors Democrats. Generic ballot questions give Democrats an advantage that could put them in control of the US House.
I’ve been cautious about getting too optimistic about Democrats’ chances. I saw the enthusiasm of the Moral Monday movement tempered at the ballot box. While Democrats in North Carolina performed better than a lot of states, they’ve never been able to overcome the legislature’s veto proof majority, much less take control of one of the chambers. The enthusiasm now feels different.
I’ve spent the last few days in the field, visiting campaigns across the state. At house party programs that usually attract no more than a dozen or so folks, as many as fifty people are coming out to hear candidates speak. And these aren’t activists. They’re business people, teachers and doctors who haven’t been significantly engaged before. They won’t be knocking on doors this fall, but they will be opening their wallets, many for the first time, and supporting Democrats.
These people are moderate voters who are concerned about the direction of our government. They’re scared of Donald Trump but they’re dismayed by the Republicans who refuse to hold him accountable. They don’t agree fully with Democrats on policy but they’ve lost faith in Republican leaders.
If the blue wave comes, it will be driven as much by these moderate voters at the house parties as by the activists at the rallies. The activists can drive out the base, but the moderates will make the middle break hard for Democrats. As I’ve said before, a wave has three components: an energized base on one side, a demoralized base on the other and middle that breaks heavily for side that’s motivated. Unless something changes over the next six months, and it certainly could, the size of the wave in November will be determined by the motivation, or lack thereof, of the Republican base.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Thomas: I have been involved as a consultant or campaign worker in just about every election since 1954 and I can tell you what you sense, saw and heard is accurate. The 2018 election looks to me like a significant political turning point and not just from the public opinion polls and the recent election results. And, to Norma Munn’s point–about the election is so far away from this campaign–this is different and I fully expect momentum to sustain itself or build, not diminish. As to Korea, I expect Trump to get some captives freed and for Trump and the North Korean dictator to declare they have finally ended the war. No denuclearization, but maybe some increased cooperation with South Korea. Pompeo has probably already choreographed these deals. Much hype and little meaningful action.
Encouraging, but as we all know, the 2018 elections are a long way off in political time. Just curious, but what do you think these potentially new Democratic voters will choose if Trump signs a deal with North Korea? At the moment, I would lay slight odds in his favor on getting a deal. (That does not mean I think it will be a good deal, or that NK would keep their word. They never have.)