It’s not quite picking a fight, but Kay Hagan is certainly trying to put some distance between herself and the President. On Tuesday, they’re going to be at the same venue, speaking at the American Legion’s 96th National Convention in Charlotte. Hagan probably isn’t too thrilled that Obama is showing up. The Tillis campaign is probably hoping to get a picture of the two of them, preferably hugging.
Just 30 minutes after the White House announced Obama’s visit, her office fired off a statement, saying: “The Obama administration has not yet done enough to earn the lasting trust of our veterans and implement real and permanent reforms at the VA.” It’s polite criticism, but it’s criticism nonetheless, and the willingness of Hagan to speak out against the President just before he visits the state illustrates the tough race she’s in.
The latest polls have President Obama’s approval rating in the state hovering around 41%, which is why Hagan is suddenly so eager to prove herself independent of the President and his policies. It’s a tough balancing act: being too critical would probably depress key segments of the Democratic base, especially African Americans and progressives. And in this race, that just can’t be allowed to happen as Hagan has no room for error. But not being critical enough leaves her open to charges that she’s just a rubber stamp for the unpopular administration.
Which is why Hagan’s strategy is all about eviscerating Thom Tillis. In politics, fear tends to be a stronger motivating force than love. And let’s face it – no one is in love with the record of Senator Kay Hagan. If she wins, it will be because she’s seen as the lesser of two evils. Democrats have said as much. But while they don’t love Hagan’s record, they’re highly motivated to vote against Thom Tillis and will walk over hot coals to do so. Hagan needs to get the rest of North Carolina to share the same sentiment.
The problem is, there’s also quite a few people here who will walk over hot coals to vote against a rubber stamp for Obama – no matter who the Republican is on the ballot. Indeed, the danger for Hagan is that voters will just close their ears to any negative messages about Tillis’s record in the General Assembly. They just don’t want to hear it because they’re already made up their minds to support whoever the Republican is, even if it’s a ham sandwich.
Yesterday, Tillis’s campaign responded to Hagan’s statement, saying Hagan was just trying to blame her own failures on Obama (interesting line!) and that her criticism of the administration was “too little, too late.” With Tillis’s numbers improving in the polls, it looks like North Carolinians agree, and millions of dollars worth of television ads with Hagan calling herself a “moderate” won’t change that.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Moderate: As Molly Ivins or Jim Hightower said, “Ain’t nothing in the road but yellow stripes and dead armadillos”, or in this case possums. And just who cares what Kay thinks anyway? Now we got the kiss on the Charlotte with Her Ladyship and Obama doing kissy, with Burrhead in background. Hmmmm. Don’t look like daylight between them, or course Obama may be conferring the “kiss of death”. Who knows. We know not to look for intelligent comments here.
Hagan is a moderate.
So, to summarize: Some people will vote for Tillis no matter what and others will vote for Hagan no matter what.
Duh.
An election is won or lost in the squishy middle. And these days, by the behavior of the Tea Party contingent, which is why they present such an existential crisis to sane Republicans. Here’s why:
* Democrats can count on a solid base of 40-45%. A few progressives may stay home or vote Green Party or something, but not very many.
* Republicans used to have the same 40-45% starting point. But now, they have the Tea Party. A candidate who is insufficiently ideologically pure to satisfy the Tea Party wing will either lose in his primary (Eric Cantor) or lose turnout in the general.
Both Tillis and Hagan need to appeal to the squishy middle, but Tillis must ALSO hang on to the Tea Party voters.