After the events of last night, an abundance of caution should be exercised in declaring certain races safe for one party or candidate. Nonetheless, there are no foreseeable circumstances that would make Senate Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 competitive.

SD-08, based in the southeastern part of the state, is not likely to be competitive either, though an upset is more probable here than in those aforementioned districts. The reason is because the seat is currently occupied by Sen. Bill Rabon (R-Southport), whose colorful comments concerning a puppy mill bill may have undermined his standing with constituents. While an upset is far from likely, we’re keeping this race on our radar, just in case.

District Layout
The 8th district consists of the counties around New Hanover County (Wilmington) – Bladen, Pender, and Brunswick. There is also a single, strongly Democratic precinct from New Hanover County located in the district, in downtown Wilmington. The district as a whole skews conservative, but Democrats perform stronger in state-level and local races. Most voters are located in fast-growing Brunswick County, an affluent coastal county which is also Sen. Rabon’s home. Pender has similar characteristics, but is only half as large, and like Brunswick was once an impoverished, mostly agricultural area before it saw an influx of wealthy retirees.

Democrats do best in Bladen, a rural county which is more typical of what this district used to look like. There is a high black population and local Democrats are very strong. But Bladen is also the smallest county here and is drowned out by the fast-growing coastal portions of the district.

All in all, while the 8th has a strong Blue Dog tradition, the Blue Dogs are voting Republican more than ever, and newcomers to the district tend to be conservative. Demographic changes here should prove very favorable to GOP candidates over time. The Blue Dog tradition might yet be strong enough to take down Sen. Rabon this year, but time is running out.

Vet vs. Vet

When Rabon derided the House for their version of the puppy mill bill, he described members of that chamber with an epithet which is sometimes used as a synonym for “cats”, an action that can only be considered appropriate in the context of his occupation as a veterinarian. Uniquely, both Sen. Rabon and his Democratic challenger, are in the business of treating animals. Democrat Ernie Ward is actually a decent candidate; he’s a well-respected commentator on animal-related issues and has been featured on CNN and Animal Planet. In fact, Ward was actually present at the recorded meeting which brought so much unfavorable press on Sen. Rabon.

By all accounts, Dr. Ward is running a spirited campaign. But in the end, this district is just too Republican, and the midterm environment too unfavorable, for a Democrat to prevail here, even against an incumbent who has gotten his share of negative attention recently. Put simply, the controversy surrounding Rabon is not a career-ending one, or anything close to it. And this district has shown a willingness to reelect incumbents who have landed in a lot worse trouble, a lot worse. Rabon’s huge campaign war chest, over $147,000 according to the latest reports, will also be more than enough to derail any challenge. The incumbent should win in November by at least 10 points, probably more.

Counties in district: Bladen, Brunswick, New Hanover (part), Pender

District Rating: This district is Likely Republican. A rating of ‘Likely’ indicates that while one party has a strong advantage, under certain circumstances a competitive race could develop. In general, about 20% of races initially ranked as ‘Likely’ go on to be competitive.

2012 Result
Bill Rabon – 60%
Danny Hefner – 40%

Voter Registration
Democrat – 41.2%
Republican – 31.7%
Unaffiliated – 26.9%

White – 77.8%
Black – 18.7%
Other – 3.5%

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
57.0% Romney
42.2% Obama

2012 Governor
60.0% McCrory
38.1% Dalton

2010 Senate
59.5% Burr
38.5% Marshall

2008 Senate
51.4% Hagan
44.5% Dole

Social Media Support
Sen. Bill Rabon – 2,488
Dr. Ernie Ward – 904

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.