The Elon Poll regularly takes a look at the North Carolina political scene. Their latest survey, released yesterday, is great news for Democrats. In particular, it’s great news for Roy Cooper, who has a 6-point lead on Governor Pat McCrory.
But before going any further, I just want to mention one thing that stuck out to me – when voters are asked to describe themselves ideologically, about 34% call themselves liberals. That’s a little high so this might be overstating Democratic support. But even taking that into consideration, it’s still a good poll for Team Blue.
President Race
The latest PPP poll found both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz trailing Hillary Clinton in the general election by small margins (and Trump actually doing better). Elon finds much more of a gap, with Cruz the better general election candidate. Trump loses to Clinton by 7 while Cruz leads her by 3. This supports the conventional wisdom that Cruz at least gives Republicans a fighting chance at victory while Trump is a non-starter. But things could change.
Governor Race
Cooper leads by 6. This is his best result in any poll since McCrory/Cooper polling began. Why is Cooper doing so well? I have one guess, and it involves the fallout over HB 2. The question is whether or not this is just a temporary lull for McCrory or the start of a race that Cooper is going to dominate through November – not a good question for Team McCrory to be facing.
Cooper is winning because he’s doing well among pretty much every subgroup. He wins 89% of Democrats, which in North Carolina is a sign of unity among that party. He’s winning independents by 3 and is taking 11% of Republicans. A Democrat with greater cross-party appeal than his Republican opponent in North Carolina is almost always going to win.
Senate Race
Senator Richard Burr leads former legislator Deborah Ross by 4. PPP found Burr leading Ross by 5, so the polls are in agreement here. Unsurprisingly, Burr shouldn’t be nearly as affected by HB 2 as McCrory, but it could still affect him negatively.
Bathrooms
About the Virginia case from yesterday: I imagine that if anything, it helps McCrory. The more focus there is on bathrooms and the more this is seen as a national issue rather than NC Republicans just going crazy, the better for the governor.
Now, some interesting numbers from the poll. Only 38% say that cities should be allowed to enact policies allowing transgender individuals to use the bathroom that they feel best matches their gender identity. 49% say that the state should not allow cities to make those policies. Of course, HB 2 goes a lot further than that and it’s the economic impact that is hurting McCrory more than anything, not because he’s out-of-step with voters on this issue. But it’s more evidence that repealing the Charlotte ordinance is something that voters support.
45% of independents, 76% of Republicans, and even 30% of Democrats say the state should ban cities from transgender bathroom ordinances. What does that mean? If McCrory can somehow make this a referendum on bathrooms, he wins. If it’s about the economic impact of HB 2, Cooper is going to win. I don’t think anyone expected this race to become a referendum on the transgender movement but that might be what we get in November.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Cosmic Janitor–I agree that Burr can’t claim to be a “stellar” Senator: based on my experience, he’s more of a “stealth” Senator, at least so far as those of us who aren’t in a position to attend high-dollar Republican fund-raisers are concerned–I assume he actually shows up for those. Otherwise, he’s AWOL in terms of interacting with his constituents.
You may be a republican John, but other than that you are probably a decent, upstanding fellow – so please continue to keep us progressives abreast of the right-wing take on things. As far as this article is concerned, I have three thoughts to exclaim: 1). Hopefully HB2 will be the undoing of the NCGA authoritarian republican extremists. 2). Go Debra Ross, you will make a stellar Senator – which isn’t a claim Burr can make. 3). Donald Trump is going to be the next POTUS and hopefully that will be the end of Killary Clinton and her neo-con republican backers – politics certainly makes strange bedfellows.
Strange that this Elon Poll only asked a question about the bathroom-use provision of HB2.
As the article notes, it found that 49% of those polled approved of the state prohibiting cities from enacting a bathroom-use ordinance like Charlotte’s, while 39% disapproved of the state’s action.
But the poll didn’t ask any questions about overall approval/disapproval of HB2, including its provisions that ban municipalities from enacting minimum wage levels, and that disallow state residents from taking workplace discrimination complaints to state courts.
Truly a missed opportunity. Why? Because a post-HB2 SurveyUSA poll (Apr 9-11) found that, while 56% of NC’ers supported the bathroom provision, support for the overall HB2 law only pegged out at 39%, while 50% of respondents opposed it.
But while the Elon poll didn’t add much perspective about how NC’ers are feeling about HB2 in its totality, one might use the McCrory-Cooper race numbers of recent Elon and SurveyUSA polls to draw some some conclusions.
In a March pre-HB2 poll, SurveyUSA found that McCrory led Cooper by 47-45. But in its April poll a month later, that one found Cooper leading McCrory, 47-43. What might have happened to account for that significant 6-point swing? HB2 seems the likely suspect.
And, in its pre-primary poll (Feb), Elon found Cooper held only a slight lead over McCrory, 42-40, well within the poll margin of error (a virtual tie). But in this latest post-HB2 Elon poll, Cooper had extended his lead over McCrory, 48-42. It also found that McCrory’s approval rating had tanked to its lowest levels in two years. The likely reason for these trends? Take a guess.
Please stop sending all your lies about NC Politics – you make me sick! UNSUBSCRIBE or do what ever is necessary to stop sending me you stupid interpretation of the facts you care to gleam & put into you idiotic sentences.