The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia moved the US Senate race in North Carolina to “Lean Democrat” from “Toss-up.” The move reflects the polling that has consistently shown former Governor Roy Cooper to hold a statistically significant lead over Trump toady Michael Whatley. It also highlights the poor political environment Republicans face.

A Whatley spokesman responded to the move, saying, “Every cycle dating back for more than a decade, national ‘experts’ and national journalists try to prop up Democrat Senators in NC, and every year those Democrats lose on Election Day.”

That’s some serious cope. I can’t remember any of the national prognosticators rating a US Senate race in North Carolina as lean anybody. Polling has been too favorable to Democrats, but only by a point or two. Cooper has held leads outside the margin of error since the race began.

In addition, this year is the first time since 2002 that a midterm US Senate race in North Carolina has taken place with a Republican in the White House. That alone should give people pause, but with a president as unpopular as Trump, the GOP should be absolutely terrified. Midterms are almost always a referendum on the president’s administration and Trump is underwater by 15 points according to the latest Carolina Journal poll.

Whatley has also turned out to be a very poor candidate. He might do well with insiders in the GOP, but he lacks the political skills to be a top-tier candidate. Instead of reading the environment he faces, he’s merely parroting everything Trump says. He needs to put some daylight between himself and Trump but instead keeps wrapping himself around the president.

The contrast between Cooper and Whatley is stark and the Cooper team has been exploiting the differences. While Whatley is defending Trump and making everything about politics, Cooper is the unofficial leader of the Caniacs as the Carolina Hurricanes vie for the Stanley Cup. He’s like the Tom Jensen of hockey. He’s bringing people together around a shared passion instead of dividing them with a demented president’s ramblings.

Democrats may not have won a Senate race since Kay Hagan won in 2008, but they also haven’t had a candidate like Cooper in a year like this one. Cooper is the most experienced statewide candidate since Jim Hunt. The political environment keeps getting worse for Republicans as inflation and wars dominate the national conversation while Trump sleeps through various meetings.

The move to “Lean Democrat” is warranted. The prognosticators won’t make it “Likely Democrat” because you never know what happens in politics, but by the fall, most will believe it’s Cooper’s race to lose. I’m betting Republicans never come into the state for Whatley with a significant spend. Instead, they will be protecting incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine and trying to hold Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and maybe Nebraska as the year gets worse for them.

Go, Coop! Go, Canes!

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We’re now a little over two weeks until the 250th anniversary of our nation’s birth and the celebration seems muted. Instead of the fanfare and year-long lead-up to the 200th anniversary, this year seems like just another Fourth of July. It makes me sad for our country and wistful for the country of my youth.

In 1976, I was thirteen years old. The country spent a year preparing for the Bicentennial. Red, white, and blue was everywhere. Elton John’s song “Philadelphia Freedom” blared from speakers at almost every event. People painted cars, houses, and anything else they could find in the image of the American flag. We had coins specially minted to mark the occasion and commemorative license plates.

On television, Schoolhouse Rock gave us a year of civics lessons. They taught us about how a bill becomes law. They introduced the original “No Kings” episode. And they celebrated the Melting Pot that makes our country great.

In Wadesboro, where I grew up, many men grew beards. I’m not sure what that signified since most of the Founding Fathers were clean-shaven, but it was a thing. People also painted every fire hydrant in town to look like a person. Some were made to look like Revolutionary-era soldiers and others were firefighters, policemen, soldiers, or sailors. Again, I’m not exactly sure of the connection to the signing of the Declaration of Independence, but they were interesting.

The Bicentennial celebration came on the heels of a remarkably contentious time in the country and people were looking for a way to come together. The Civil Rights Movement had moved our country forward and after a decade of violence and assassinations, the country accepted a new social structure that included African Americans. The Vietnam War was over. Nixon and Watergate were gone from the political stage. The year 1976 seemed to be about redemption and remembering what our country was about, even if the scars of the 1960s and early 1970s would stay with us longer than anyone imagined. It felt like a time of hope and renewal.

There’s been no lead-up to the 250th celebration. Instead, there’s been acrimony. Donald Trump has made our country angry and he’s made the celebration about him. He’s giving some sort of speech that only his cult following will watch. Those on the left side of the spectrum will find it offensive. Those on the right will pretend that he’s brilliant. We no longer have a unified picture of our country to celebrate.

The 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence won’t get the recognition it deserves. Lincoln considered the Declaration the foundational document of our country, more significant than the Constitution. The Declaration didn’t just separate us from England: it laid out a vision of a new kind of country. As Lincoln said at Gettysburg, “Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.”

And maybe that’s why we aren’t celebrating our 250th Independence Day the way we should. Trump and MAGA don’t agree with Lincoln’s expansive vision of America. They believe in a narrow place and want to protect a certain way of life for a particular people — those who look and believe like them. It’s a belittling view of a country that has offered so much to so many.

Lincoln concluded his speech by saying, “…[T]his nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom — and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.” That’s the battle we have in front of us today — to protect democracy from despots. The stakes are so high. I hope we can celebrate again.

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Michael Whatley clearly doesn’t follow hockey. That’s not a sin and it shouldn’t be a political liability, but Whatley and his campaign turned it into one. Whatley tried to be something he isn’t and that’s what people hate about politicians.

Whatley’s campaign made a stupid error when they posted an AI image of generic hockey players in Carolina Hurricanes uniforms. They were begging for scrutiny and they got appropriately ridiculed. Then Whatley couldn’t name any players on the team when asked his favorites.

Paige Maston of the News & Observer got it right. Whatley’s problem is not about hockey or any other sport. It’s about, as Maston says, “relatability and authenticity.” Instead of looking like part of the growing Hurricane fan base, Whatley looks like a phony trying to score political points.

In the bigger picture, the episode shows the difference between two campaigns. Former Governor Roy Cooper has long been known as a Hurricanes fan. This season, he’s leaned into it. His campaign posted videos and photos of Cooper decked out in Hurricanes garb wandering through the parking lot of the Lenovo Center mingling with fans before games. It’s almost like they set Whatley up and he took the bait.

Cooper’s team didn’t even have to push the narrative. Hurricanes fans and social media did the work for them. Whatley’s campaign and their allies on social media spent two days trying to convince people that it wasn’t a big deal. The incident may be forgotten by October, but the campaign lost those days trying to fix an unforced error.

Whatley is still a largely undefined candidate. As Maston points out, “For some people, this Hurricanes fiasco could have been their first introduction, and it doesn’t exactly make a good impression.”

Whatley has turned out to be a hapless candidate running against a seasoned politician. He doesn’t seem to understand the political environment or campaigns in general. At a time when Republicans are trying to put a little daylight between themselves and a deeply unpopular president, Whatley is doubling down on his support for Donald Trump. Most recently, he embraced Trump’s slush fund at the same time Congressional Republicans were rejecting it.

He’s defining himself as a rubber stamp for Trump who is largely disconnected from average North Carolinians. Whatley has never really been a leader and has no practical experience. He’s a political operative and insider whose career has hinged on his relationships, not his accomplishments. That’s not a great résumé at a time when voters are angry at the political establishment.

Few people will remember the Hurricanes incident when the campaign heats up this fall, but it shows what type of campaign Whatley is running and what type of candidate he is. He’s chasing public opinion instead of leading it. His campaign is trying to be opportunistic but is too incompetent to find the right opportunity. He’s done little to define himself while wrapping himself around a flailing and unpopular president. Team Whatley will have to make significant adjustments to be competitive this fall.

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State Auditor Dave Boliek wants you to believe that he’s a fiscal hawk, holding agencies and municipalities financially responsible. He’s really a partisan hack who filled the state board of elections with GOP operatives instead of election professionals. Now, he is using his office to pressure local boards of elections to make voting more difficult for young people.

According to Republican members of the Jackson County Board of Elections, Boliek’s office pressured them to vote to remove an early voting site from Western Carolina University. Republicans control the board with a three-two majority. One GOP member, Jay Pavey, said, “I’ve been told that if I don’t vote a particular way, that they will do whatever they have to do to remove me from the board.” Jackson County Board Chair Bill Thompson admitted that he was told to eliminate the student voting site by Boliek’s office. Another member, Wes Hanemeyer, resigned saying, “If third parties feel they can demand that I take a completely illogical path, that means they are convinced they have control.”

Tellingly, the North Carolina Republican Party applauded Boliek, not the members of the Jackson County GOP.

Republicans gained control of the state board of elections after the legislature voted to strip the agency from the governor’s office and give it to the Auditor. They tried that before but the Supreme Court stopped them. The new court with a GOP majority, led by Chief Justice Paul Newby, an unabashed partisan, reversed the ruling and allowed the transfer. Ever since, Boliek has packed the SBOE with partisan operatives instead of election professionals.

Dave Boliek wants you to think he’s a serious guy. He’s got the credentials and résumé of a public servant, but those are deceiving. He switched parties after the GOP had abandoned its conservative principles and embraced the authoritarianism and corruption of Trump. In other words, power and the possibility of wealth appealed to Boliek, not limited government or free markets.

Boliek could have shown his independence by appointing a state board of elections made up of good government advocates and run by election professionals. Instead, he appointed hard-core partisans to the board and political operatives to run the agency. He’s weaponized the state board of elections, making it a tool of the GOP rather than the nonpartisan agency it’s supposed to be.

Board Chair Francis De Luca was president of the Civitas Institute and participated in independent expenditure operations to defeat Democrats. The liaison to the county boards of elections is Dallas Woodhouse, a former chair of the NC GOP and Republican operative for more than 25 years. The executive director is Sam Hayes, who served as legal counsel for GOP House Speakers Tim Moore and Destin Hall. I had some hopes for Hayes, but those are fading.

I don’t have any illusions about Boliek. He’s an anti-democratic opportunist driven by petty resentment, some deep-seated insecurity, or some combination of both. He’s 58 years old and looks 75. Something’s been eating at him to age him that fast.

Boliek looks grandfatherly and can run in the right social circles. I’m sure he’s pleasant, friendly, and professional, but there’s nothing really there except self-interest. His whole history is one of opportunism with few core values.

Boliek wanted to be appointed to the state Senate as a Democrat to succeed retiring Senator Tony Rand, but the appointment went to Margaret Dickson instead. Not long after that, he started supporting Republicans after they gerrymandered themselves into power after 2011. He switched parties in 2023 while Trump was running for re-election. We can only imagine what promises he got. He and the modern GOP deserve each other.

Republicans in North Carolina chafe at charges that they are anti-democratic or authoritarian, but their actions prove the accusations. They’ve used extreme gerrymandering to rig districts to keep themselves in power. They’ve implemented voter suppression laws to limit access to the ballot box. Now, they are weaponizing the state board of elections to bully counties into making voting more difficult for people they believe are more likely to vote for Democrats.

Dave Boliek could have proven himself to be an independent. Instead, he’s proven himself to be a hack. North Carolinians deserve to know who he is.

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Roy Cooper released his first campaign ad this week. It’s a traditional ad without the flash of a lot of today’s introductory videos. He talks about growing up on a farm imbued with the values of his parents, a schoolteacher and small-time lawyer and part-time farmer. He’ll go after “insurance companies ripping you off, to make sure you can retire with dignity, and build an economy that finally values working people.” His target audience seems to be older, rural voters native to North Carolina.

It’s a nostalgia ad, connecting Cooper to the voters Democrats need to reach — people who grew up here and stayed close to home. It recalls a time when life was “easier,” when church and high school football were staples. It’s a paean to the small town and rural communities that dominated North Carolina throughout the 20th century. He’s appealing to the people who have been electing Republicans by validating both the threat to their lifestyle and the belief they can have it again.

Five months before the election, Cooper has consolidated his base and is going after the voters who used to routinely vote for Democrats, but haven’t in a while. The ad is straight out of the 1990s or early 2000s, and yet not out of date. We used to see a version of that ad regularly. They say, “I’m one of you” when “you” were mostly native North Carolinians.

Today, much of the Democratic base is more likely to have been to brunch or a soccer match than to church or Friday night lights. Cooper is going after GOP-leaning voters at a time when they are getting left behind by Republicans. He might not be able to win rural counties, but he can cut the margins by peeling off people who feel let down by Trump and the GOP Congress who promised an end to wars and lower prices.

Cooper’s ad indicates that some people in rural America may be tiring of GOP promises that never deliver. In recent years, Republican ads have focused on cultural issues and threats from outsiders. They’ve been full of tough-talking politicians warning about liberals coming for their guns and immigrants bringing crime to small towns. They’ve been designed to sow fear and division. In reality, we have more guns than ever and most of the immigrants, whether here legally or illegally, are law-abiding and keeping local economies afloat.

Cooper’s ad shifts the problem from liberal politicians to ones who would let insurance companies gouge people and make working and aging more difficult. His villain is specific, not vague. He’s targeting insurance companies, not oligarchs. He’s speaking a language people understand that sounds less ideological and more practical.

We’ve been hearing for the past year or so that progressives and Democrats want fighters. They want people who will take on Trump and oligarchs. What Cooper understands is that the people who will determine the election just want a better life. They might not know who the tech billionaires are, but they know Cigna or Blue Cross or UnitedHealthcare get too much of their money while offering too little coverage. And they know that politicians aren’t doing enough to balance that out.

Governor Josh Stein called the legislature’s push to cap the personal income tax at 3.5% a scam. He’s right and I think he understates what Republicans are doing. They’ve been on a quest to shift the burden of funding government onto the poorest North Carolinians and onto county and local governments. So far, they’ve been remarkably successful with too little pushback.

When they took control of state government, Republicans eliminated the Earned Income Tax Credit — a $150–$500 annual break offered to nearly one million struggling North Carolinians — and used the savings to cut taxes for the state’s highest earners and largest corporations. We are the only state in the country to have ever eliminated an EITC.

By increasing the sales tax and reducing the income tax, Republicans have successfully reduced the share the wealthiest pay in taxes while increasing the share that the poorest pay. Since 2010, the top 1% has seen their tax burden drop by 1% while the poorest 20% have seen their burden increase by 0.6%. In real terms, Republicans raised taxes on poor people to pay for tax cuts for rich people.

Republicans want to lock in these gains for the wealthiest North Carolinians by passing a constitutional amendment to cap the income tax rate at 3.5%. As Stein correctly notes, the move would force an increase in the sales tax if the state needs more revenue, further increasing inequality by shifting more burden onto lower income families.

The move is part of a coordinated effort to prevent governments from funding needed services. At the same time they are trying to cap the income tax at a ridiculously low rate, they are also trying to limit counties’ and municipalities’ abilities to increase property taxes. So as the legislature increasingly passes costs to local governments, they are hamstringing local officials’ ability to pay for services. Those services will eventually go away — a win for Republicans and a loss for the people who need the help.

We’ve seen this scenario play out in schools. As the legislature reduced funding for schools, county governments either made up the lost revenue through local tax dollars or boards of education cut services. Republicans came into power screaming that our public schools were broken and then proceeded to break them. After fifteen years of controlling budgets, they still claim our public schools are broken as they offer tax breaks in the form of vouchers to some of our wealthiest citizens.

Republicans are going to ask more from the poorest citizens and less of the wealthiest. As government needs more revenue, they will raise it from regressive sales taxes, shifting the burden onto the shoulders of working families. They will never ask the people who have benefited most from our form of government and our economic system to pay more. They will always look for ways to let them pay less, even if it costs the rest of us.

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It’s like Republicans believed their own spin. For two years leading up to the 2024 election, they bashed the economy, calling it one of the worst in history. In fact, it was chugging along but struggling with disturbingly high inflation. By the time of the election, though, inflation was largely tamed. Republicans got to take advantage of the malaise that high prices put over an electorate that wanted lower prices.

They could have easily taken control of Congress and the White House, done nothing, and taken credit for a humming economy and lower inflation. Instead, they chose tariffs, restructuring government, and uncertainty, leaving people in worse financial shape than when they took power. It was a self-inflicted wound born of a delusion that a healing economy needed fixing.

When Joe Biden left office, the unemployment rate was 4%. More people were employed than before the pandemic. GDP grew by 2.8% in 2024. Biden brought down inflation from 9% to under 3% without causing a recession. Gas prices were about $3.15 when he left the White House. The United States had weathered the post-pandemic era better than almost every other western country.

Still, people were grumbling about high prices and consumer confidence was down. They chose Trump largely because of their angst about the economy and an influx of migrants. They wanted the pre-pandemic economy that Biden had largely delivered but that had not yet taken hold in the public consciousness.

After the election, Republicans didn’t need to do anything but let the painful cures Biden and the Federal Reserve imposed on the country and economy take effect. With a few symbolic measures, they could have declared victory, claiming that inflation was falling, the economy was growing, and gas prices were dropping. They could have focused on the border and claimed they were fulfilling their campaign promises. They could have been conservatives.

Instead, they decided to hand the country over to Trump and abandon their oversight role. They let him spike inflation with a crazy tariff regime. They watched passively as Elon Musk and DOGE caused massive uncertainty with a chaotic restructuring of government. They refused to restrain foreign policy as Trump and his warmongers started a war with Iran that drove gas prices to more than $4.50 a gallon. Today, they own an economy that’s growing anemically, a job market that’s deteriorating, and an electorate that blames them for an overall malaise in the country.

And they did it all to appease a grifter who is looting the government. It’s probably the dumbest, most incompetent administration in modern history and Republicans have nobody to blame but themselves. They spent so many years lying to their base that they started believing their own spin. They abandoned conservative values for populist ones proposed by their would-be dictator who perpetually contradicts himself while enriching his cronies.

When the party desperately needed a truth-teller, nobody stood up. Our Senator, Thom Tillis, thinks he’s filling that role, but he’s a few years too late. If he really wanted to make a difference, he would have been saying what he’s saying today in the middle of a re-election campaign. Instead, he’s saying it on his way to political oblivion.

I suspect the 2026 midterm will be to Republicans what the 2010 midterm was to Democrats. They are about to get wiped out. They either misread the electorate or mistook their MAGA base for the general public.

Regardless, the middle is not demanding massive change. They are demanding a return to stability. They want some kind of certainty and a belief that their children still have a bright future and opportunities. They don’t really believe that right now.

The lesson for Democrats is that people want stability, not change. In the past 18 years, we’ve gone from the Great Recession to overhauling our health care system to the pandemic to inflation, all while watching a surge of immigrants alter the demographic makeup of the country. The change people want is stability — a healthy economy, available jobs, pay that keeps up with inflation, affordable housing, and a safety net that ensures people who worked hard and played by the rules don’t die in poverty. They also want time for the new immigrants to assimilate like every other group that has come here. We’re closer to all of those goals than either side will admit. We can achieve them with tweaks, not burning down the house.

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The two campaigns for US Senate in North Carolina couldn’t be more different. Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is wandering around the parking lot of the Lenovo Center decked out in Carolina Hurricanes garb, crashing tailgate parties, and breaking down the Canes’ chances of winning the Stanley Cup with fellow fans. Former RNC Chair Michael Whatley is endorsing Donald Trump’s $1.8 billion slush fund for perpetrators of January 6 with GOP conspiracy theorists and making sure that the anchor of Trump’s approval ratings is firmly attached to his leg.

Cooper’s love of the Hurricanes is well known. He’s been a fan since the team moved to Raleigh and was frequently sighted at games while he was governor. He’s been on radio and podcasts discussing the team and breaking down games. He got lucky to be running when the Canes have one of the best teams in the NHL and may be heading to the Stanley Cup Finals. (Canes won last night in overtime and hold a 2-1 advantage in the semifinals). People across much of the state are paying attention to both the Hurricanes and Cooper.

After years of hyper-politicization, people are ready for a break. Cooper is giving it to them, even if inadvertently. He’s setting aside politics and embracing hockey, something that has no party lines but, more importantly, is the type of distraction we all need. He’s talking sports, not policy. He’s both humanizing himself and showing there’s more to life than politics.

In contrast, Whatley can’t let politics go. In particular, he can’t let go of Donald Trump. I guess he’s calculating that somehow the president’s approval ratings are going to turn around and he’ll ride that popularity to victory. It doesn’t make much sense to me, but here we are.

Whatley is putting himself on the wrong side of issue after issue. His support for the J-6 slush fund puts him in direct contrast with sitting Senator Thom Tillis. Tillis called the fund “beyond the pale” and said, “There’s not one positive thing that could be spun out of this between now and November. This is bad policy, it’s bad timing and it’s bad politics.”

Whatley’s embrace of the slush fund should make people question both his political acumen and his motives. The GOP Senate leadership is pushing back because they consider the measure politically toxic, putting their majority at even more risk. Either Whatley sees it differently or he’s more concerned with staying in Trump’s good graces than doing what is right. So far, he’s shown no independence about anything. He just toes the MAGA party line.

Cooper not only leads Whatley in every poll, but he’s running laps around him on the campaign trail. He’s making himself more accessible and less political. Whatley, in contrast, looks like he’s running in a MAGA primary, alienating moderate voters to secure the votes of the most extreme GOP primary voters, even though they have nowhere else to go. Cooper is working to connect with voters while Whatley is betting his campaign on the popularity of Trump.

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Republicans will tell you they oppose direct democracy. They don’t want people to be able to put initiatives and referendums on the ballot that would be binding and become law. They say they don’t want North Carolina to become California or Massachusetts and yet they keep putting constitutional amendments on the ballot that would be more binding than most initiatives. They’re abusing their power.

Republicans understand that they are slowly becoming a minority party in North Carolina so they’re trying to lock in their power through constitutional amendments. They not only oppose direct democracy. They are undermining representative democracy.

They’ve introduced measures to restrict the governor’s power because they know winning statewide elections will likely become more difficult for them in the future. They are at it again this year, trying to strip the governor of his right to appoint members to the state board of education. And because they know they will likely lose their veto-proof majorities, they’re also trying to limit the legislature’s ability to raise taxes and hamstring local government by limiting their ability to increase property taxes.

Constitutional amendments have been part of North Carolina governance for decades, but Republicans changed the nature of them. Democrats usually put up amendments that had to do with the structure of government. Most were boring and technical, though a few, like giving the governor the veto and allowing governors two terms, were more controversial, though not obviously partisan.

Republicans have changed the game, putting highly partisan and ideological measures to a binding vote. They’ve tried to strip power from the governor, limit access to the ballot box, and discriminate against minorities. They are taking advantage of their artificial super-majorities created by gerrymandering to try to motivate their base to go to the polls and lock in measures that sound good but are often harmful.

They also cluster these amendments in groups. They put six amendments on the ballot back in 2018 and it looks like they will have at least that many this year. Republicans seem to like to put them on the ballot in midterm years when their base might otherwise not show up.

I’ll vote against all of them on principle. Democrats should do the same. They are another example of Republicans abusing their power with artificial majorities that don’t reflect the will of the people. Just say no to constitutional amendments.

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Senate Republicans continue to pay the price for their cowardice in the face of Donald Trump’s corruption. Yesterday, the would-be dictator endorsed scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in his run-off against incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Cornyn’s Republican colleagues are shocked, disappointed, and outraged. I can’t stop laughing.

Cornyn debased himself over and over again trying to get into Trump’s good graces after he was lukewarm about Trump’s re-election campaign in 2024. Paxton, on the other hand, never wavered in his support. Paxton and Trump are cut from the same cloth. Both men are unscrupulous philanderers who see government service as an opportunity to get rich on the taxpayer’s dime. And both have survived impeachments. Trump went with the guy he knows would never hold him accountable instead of the guy who might find his damaged but functioning moral compass if he got re-elected.

The endorsement clearly took Cornyn by surprise. Just a day earlier, as he cast his vote on the first day of early voting, Cornyn told the press that he believed the president would stay neutral. He figured his embarrassing ass-kissing — photos of himself reading The Art of the Deal, trying to name an interstate after Trump — would keep Trump neutral or on his side. Instead, Trump recognized the obvious. Trump values loyalty over anything else.

Trump is on a roll purging the GOP of anyone with a shred of integrity while watching his victims debase themselves by sacrificing their principles to stay in his good graces. Senator Bill Cassidy spent the past year or so on his knees but Trump endorsed his primary opponent anyway, ending Cassidy’s Senate career. Cornyn is likely next, though he could still pull out a win next Tuesday.

Trump’s real genius is exposing the whole Republican Party. He’s shown that the GOP is a party devoid of values. Loyalty to Trump is the only thing that matters.

Former Tennessee Governor and Senator Lamar Alexander blasted the Senate for failing to hold Trump accountable. He says that Trump should have been convicted for his role in January 6. He also laments what has happened in Trump’s second term, saying in his memoir, “To me, the most disappointing difference between the first and second Trump terms was not what Trump did, but what the Senate majority did not do. Republican senators rarely checked abuse of presidential authority.”

Senators like Thom Tillis and Cassidy, freed from the pressure of re-election, are suddenly feeling their oats. They are taking stands against Trump’s abuses. Tillis has used his power to block unfit nominees and yesterday, in the first significant vote since he lost his primary, Cassidy voted to restrict Trump’s war powers, likely ending the Iran War.

Tillis has been using his noncompliance to highlight his independence, showing up on talk shows and podcasts to explain his newfound moral clarity. In reality, Tillis and Cassidy — and probably Cornyn if he loses — reveal their moral ambiguity. They folded to Trump when it mattered, on votes like RFK, Jr. and Pete Hegseth, and only found their courage when the stakes were gone. If your values and principles are that transactional and tied to your own political future, you don’t have many strong convictions. Trump has exposed them, too.

Trump will continue to whittle down the GOP, ending the careers of people who still maintain a shred of moral character. Congressman Thomas Massie lost his primary because he insisted on releasing the Epstein files. Cassidy lost because he voted to convict Trump of trying to overthrow the government. Cornyn will probably lose because he was slow to endorse Trump two years ago. Tillis had to drop out because he couldn’t convince people he was something he was not — a MAGA guy with an independent streak. And Republicans will continue to choose Trump over character as the president remakes the party in his image — corrupt, amoral, and racist.

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Carolina Forward is out with a poll this morning that should make Democrats in North Carolina happy. Josh Stein is popular, the generic ballot favors Democrats, and Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley outside of the margin of error. There’s not much to complain about.

Trump’s approval ratings are driving most of these sentiments. He’s underwater by 12 points with a majority, 55%, disapproving of the job he’s doing. For reference, a Spectrum poll in 2018, Trump’s first midterm, had him underwater by seven points with 50% disapproving in April that year, while a Civitas poll had him with a 51% approval rating in May. This year, his unfavorable rating should have Republicans nervous.

Both the Congressional and legislative ballots show Democrats with a narrow advantage of five points or so. I’m not sure that’s enough to flip either legislative chamber, but it’s certainly enough to give Democrats the power to sustain Stein’s veto. It may be enough to carry Democratic US House Representative Don Davis to re-election in NC-01 and even flip NC-11, giving Jamie Ager an edge over Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards.

Josh Stein is still riding high. He’s done a great job as governor, understanding both his strengths and limitations. He’s used his experience and relationships to keep rancor with the Republicans in the legislature relatively low while pushing back when he needs to. His approval rating is 51% with 35% disapproving. He even has a 23% approval rating among Republicans. That may all change when and if he runs for re-election in two years, but it’s a strong place to start.

Cooper leads Whatley by seven points, 49-42. Cooper is bumping up against 50% early in the race and Whatley has not been able to do much to cut into his stubbornly consistent lead. I’ve watched a few Republicans speculate that Cooper has a ceiling of 49%. That’s some serious wishful thinking, but it gives me a chuckle to watch them rationalize.

In what is arguably the most important race of the cycle, Democratic Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls has an edge on her challenger, Republican Senator Sarah Stevens, by four points. That’s certainly not enough of a lead to be comfortable, but Earls has consistently held a narrow lead over Stevens across polls. Democrats need to hold the seat if they want to take control of the Supreme Court anytime soon. They need to be able to play by the new rules that Newby has established that ignore precedent and allow the court to act like a quasi-legislative body.

The poll has little downside for Democrats mainly because independent voters are abandoning the GOP. It might only last this election cycle, but right now those folks disapprove of Trump by 34 points, approve of Stein by 21, favor Democrats on generic ballots by two to one, support Cooper over Whatley by 23, and Earls over Stevens by 17. If gas prices keep going up, expect the cycle to get worse for Republicans.

For comparison, Trump is underwater by about 26 points nationally according to the latest CBS/YouGov poll. North Carolina is considerably more conservative than the country as a whole. If Democrats in the state want to keep the advantage they have today, their policies going forward need to reflect that reality. They should stick to kitchen table issues that have broad appeal instead of engaging Republicans in divisive culture wars with narrow constituencies.

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Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy came in third in the Republican primary. He lost his seat for the sin of voting to impeach Donald Trump. He tried to redeem himself by compromising his values to curry favor with Trump, but it didn’t work. The Trump machine humiliated him anyway.

Our Senator, Thom Tillis, took a different approach. He voted against impeachment. At the time, he was still trying to convince MAGA, and Trump, that he was one of them. He would occasionally do what was right and then strike a MAGA pose, debasing himself to please Trump. He didn’t fool anybody and was left despised by both Republicans and Democrats, dropping his re-election bid more than a year before the election.

Since he ended his campaign, Tillis has enjoyed a revival as the one Republican who will stand up to the Trump administration, using his influence to block bad nominees and speaking truth about the incompetence of cabinet members. He’s on cable news, podcasts, and local news shows with interviews that highlight his independence. He sounds tough and demanding, using harsh language to chastise people like Kristi Noem, Pete Hegseth, and Kash Patel. Democrats and moderates cheer his candor.

I applaud Tillis for finally finding his voice. He’s using his power to curb the worst instincts of the Trump administration, but he’s hardly tough. I find it hard to trust a man who pretended to be something he wasn’t for so long. I suspect he would play whatever role best suits him and, right now, being the Republican contrarian gets him the most attention. I don’t know if he feels liberated or if he just likes the attention. I do know his new persona is the only thing keeping him relevant as he heads toward the door.

Maybe Bill Cassidy will join Tillis in doing what is right now that he’s a lame duck senator. Like Tillis, he capitulated to MAGA trying to stay relevant. He knew that RFK, Jr. should never have been confirmed, but he voted for him anyway. He so wanted to continue serving that he sold out his values in an effort to make up for his sin of crossing Trump after January 6. Abandoning deeply held principles to curry favor is an all-or-nothing proposition in Trump world. MAGA demands unconditional surrender.

Regardless of what they do going forward, Cassidy and Tillis will never be heroes. They are cowards who knew what was right and then did what was wrong. They knew that Hegseth, Noem, Bondi, and Patel should never be near power, but they put their political ambitions before the country. Cassidy at least tried to hold Trump accountable, but Tillis abdicated that role.

He’s just stopping bad stuff from happening after giving grifters, con artists, opportunists, and sycophants free rein over our government. Neither Tillis nor Cassidy seems willing to take on the massive corruption going on as Trump and company profit from their positions. That’s not patriotic or responsible governance.

Tillis wants to go out in a blaze of glory, basking in the attention of doing what is right for the country after years of doing what was right for his political career. Maybe Cassidy will join him. The two of them could prevent more corruption and shine a light on Trump’s plundering the government with no-bid contracts and foreign policy deals that benefit his family and cronies more than the country. I’m skeptical they will.

Both Tillis and Cassidy had chances to be real heroes and show courage. They could have led a wing of the GOP that stood by conservative values and governance and stood up to the populism that has usurped their party. Instead, they tried to be all things to all people. Tillis waited until he had nothing to lose to show his true colors. Maybe Cassidy will too, but that’s not courage. That’s an attempt to stay relevant for one last moment before history forgets them and they are better known for what they did wrong than what they did right.

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I’m having a bit of difficulty writing these days. I wake up in the morning and my eye is a mess because of a growth around my optic nerve. I have trouble looking at a computer screen for more than a few minutes, so I can’t get my words down and I’m distracted by my eye. The medicine I take resolves the problem within a few hours, but leaves me fidgety and unfocused and I have a hard time holding a coherent line of thought.

I say this because I’m writing less than usual and wanted to let readers know why. I’m starting new treatments that will likely fix the problem. Until then, I’ll write when I can and may drop pieces like this one that reflect my unfocused thoughts. I’m not going away. I will just write less frequently until I find a new normal. That said, here goes.

Democrats should leave John Fetterman alone. He’s contrarian but he’s not a Republican. He still votes with Democrats the vast majority of the time. He wouldn’t if he were a Republican. He will likely be gone after his first term. Ignore him instead of pushing him to make bad votes just to spite his critics.

All of these gerrymandering wars will have unintended consequences. I’m not sure what they will be, but I feel pretty certain that not everything will work out the way the people drawing the maps hope. Gerrymandering is a strategy for short-term gain that might have long-term consequences, especially in the midst of a political realignment that is still not sorted out yet.

The corruption in the Trump administration is astounding and the Republican Party is complicit. They have an obligation to the American people to provide oversight of the executive branch, not look the other way. Unfortunately, I don’t think the American public cares. Selling pardons and profiting from foreign governments should be more than just unseemly. It should be illegal and probably is, but if Democrats demand accountability, the GOP claims the accusations are political despite clear evidence of wrongdoing.

The weaponization of the Department of Justice to go after journalists is as disturbing as anything happening right now. Since the GOP has abandoned its oversight role of the executive branch, the media is the watchdog. Threatening and arresting journalists is a direct assault on the First Amendment.

We’re in a dangerous place where one party condones corruption and abuse of power. The elimination of democracy via gerrymandering puts the country further at risk. The Founding Fathers designed a complex government to prevent concentrations of power and we have people systematically dismantling those checks and balances one by one. We are in precarious times.

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Representative Chuck Edwards is in trouble. The House Ethics Committee is investigating him for inappropriate behavior with staff. Edwards tried to wave it off as political, but an Axios story lays out serious accusations that could threaten his re-election.

According to the Axios story, Edwards singled out two 20-something aides for attention. He bought both of them gifts like jewelry and purses. He wrote one staffer a letter that sounds like a profession of affection that’s more than just appreciation or admiration. “I only wish I could explain the joy and meaning to me for the time we spent together at the office — but especially away from it,” he told her.

None of the accusations is enough to send him packing from Congress. Members with credible accusations of abuse and multiple affairs seem pretty secure in their place, especially Republicans. With their narrow majority, the GOP-controlled House can’t afford even temporary vacancies, so don’t expect to see Edwards going anywhere — at least not yet.

The election is another matter. He seems to be facing an increasingly perfect storm. The district he represents is the one in North Carolina that may be trending slightly more blue overall. The GOP counties surrounding Buncombe, where most of the Democrats live, are shifting ever so slightly to the left every election cycle. Trump’s response to Helene may make that shift even more distinct.

The political environment nationally is tanking. Trump’s war in Iran is driving up gas prices and most people remember his pledge to stay out of wars. He not only broke his promise, but the consequences are hurting the pocketbooks of people who voted for him because of high prices. Between tariffs and the war, Republicans have made life more expensive. Incumbents like Edwards will have to eventually separate themselves from the president if people continue to feel the economic pinch.

Edwards is also turning out to be an unlikable fellow. He’s already been accused of hitting a man with a clipboard at a Rotary Club event. No charges were filed, but the incident made Edwards seem thin-skinned and prickly. Combined with his misguided attempts at affection for staffers about 40 years younger than him, Edwards looks kind of pathetic — not what you want in your Member of Congress.

While Edwards is struggling to make himself look effective and somewhat likable, he faces an opponent who fits the district. Jamie Ager is putting together the type of campaign that can take advantage of the political situation. He’s a farmer with deep roots in the district and a political pedigree. His brother serves in the legislature and his father did, too. His grandfather represented western North Carolina in Congress in the 1980s and early 1990s.

While Edwards carries a sour demeanor, Ager is attracting large crowds. He’s becoming a bit of a celebrity candidate in western North Carolina because of his down-home values and common-sense approach. He’s creating the type of campaign people want to join and building excitement among the base. He’s out-raised Edwards so far in the race and has the money to win.

And Ager is getting noticed. The DCCC put him on their red-to-blue list and indicated that they are prepared to put money into the race. That type of attention attracts the resources necessary to flip a seat.

Storm clouds are brewing in western North Carolina. There’s a dark one over Chuck Edwards and the wind is quickly shifting behind Jamie Ager, blowing him toward the finish line. There are still six months to go, but the conditions are shaping up for a perfect storm.

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Back in 2014, North Carolina had a Republican primary for US Senate that seemed to illustrate the divisions playing out within the party. Then-House Speaker Thom Tillis was the establishment candidate. Tea Party darling Greg Brannon was a libertarian-leaning physician. Mega-church pastor Mark Harris emerged as the choice of social conservatives. Tillis won the primary handily, in part, because neither of the other two candidates could put together the money. He went on to defeat incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan in a barn-burner.

While those three factions seemed to dominate the party at the time, two years later Donald Trump would upend all three. Over the next four years, the GOP morphed into the party of Trump with most traditional conservatives either abandoning their principles or their party. Today, it’s a largely populist party with an authoritarian streak.

Tillis is now ending his career mostly because the old-line GOP establishment is out of favor, though Tillis has also proven inept at navigating the Republican transformation. Greg Brannon is forgotten and the Tea Party that billed itself as a small government, more libertarian faction has no place in MAGA. Mark Harris, though, has fit right in and is now a Congressman after his third try, including one in which he was a central figure in the most notorious election fraud scandal in modern times.

A similar situation is playing out in the Michigan Senate primary. Three factions of the Democratic Party are vying for the party’s nomination, though the seat is open and the state leans Democratic instead of Republican. Haley Stevens is a four-term Congresswoman who has the backing of the Democratic establishment. Mallory McMorrow is a state senator who has leveraged a viral video moment into a statewide campaign. Abdul El-Sayed represents the Democratic Socialist wing of the party and has the support of Bernie Sanders.

Stevens is appealing to the traditional Democratic base that’s older, more African American, and more working class. They are the most reliable voters, showing up regularly in both primaries and general elections. Right now, she seems to hold a very narrow lead, but who knows?

McMorrow, a first-term state senator at the time, blasted Republicans for accusing her of being a “groomer” back in 2022. The speech put her on the national radar and raised her millions of dollars. She’s used that leverage to launch her Senate campaign and has stayed in the hunt. She seems to be smart and likable but mostly performative.

This week, McMorrow has gotten some bad press for deleting old tweets from when she first moved to Michigan from California. She apparently was happy in the state at first and bashed the Midwest while pining for her old home state. I’m not sure that social media posts from a decade ago hurt candidates anymore, but we’ll see. McMorrow represents a younger, more social media-savvy electorate and seems to be striking a middle ground between Stevens and El-Sayed.

El-Sayed has embraced Democratic Socialism and made his opposition to the war in Gaza and support for abolishing ICE and implementing Medicare for All key components of his campaign. He’s supported by younger progressives and much of Michigan’s large Muslim community. He’s courted controversy by campaigning with leftist influencer Hasan Piker.

The primary seems a microcosm of the divisions within the Democratic Party today, much like the NC GOP primary in 2014 seemed to represent the larger battle within their party. Back then, Trump rearranged the party establishment that seemed dominant at the time but is largely nonexistent within the party today. He built MAGA from the cultural conservatives and disaffected working-class voters, many of whom supported Harris but some of whom were refugees from the old Democratic New Deal coalition.

Democrats appear due for a similar reorganization. The Democratic Socialists seem to be the ascendant faction within the party, with Mamdani, Platner, and El-Sayed creating the most enthusiasm. But back in 2014, the Tea Party still felt like the future and they turned out to be more vocal than sustainable. Today, many of them are staunch anti-Trumpers.

It’s worth paying attention to Michigan to watch where the energy goes. Democrats are deeply divided just like Republicans were in 2014. Trump emerged to unite them. It will be interesting to see what brings Democrats together — or tears them further apart.

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Back in 2004, I had a strange illness that caused me to run a high fever and have night sweats. It went on for days. My doctor was determined to get to the bottom of it and ran test after test, looking for any clues.

One of the tests revealed that a specific antibody called immunoglobulin M was elevated. The only thing that causes a spike like that is non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, a group of cancers that originate in the lymphatic system. A bone marrow biopsy identified my specific cancer as Waldenström’s Macroglobulinemia, or WM for short. Ironically, it had nothing to do with my fever or night sweats. They just stumbled upon it.

I was able to get diagnosed, in part, because I had health insurance. I was self-employed but could afford a policy that covered most of the tests. However, in those days before the Affordable Care Act, I was unable to afford decent insurance again because I now had a pre-existing condition.

For the next decade, I lived with a bare-bones insurance policy that covered little, was prohibitively expensive, but protected me from losing my house if I happened to get sick. Fortunately, my cancer was slow growing and I remained asymptomatic. My doctors just monitored the protein level with regular blood tests.

When Congress passed the Affordable Care Act, I was finally able to get insurance that offered more than just minimal services. While I pay more than most people who have insurance through their employers, my Obamacare policy is still affordable and offers decent coverage for most services. Unfortunately, I’m now entering a stage where my needs are not normal.

Since the beginning of the year, I’ve been dealing with a series of ailments that are related to the cancer. I’m also going to assume a fairly massive amount of debt every year, probably for the rest of my life, unless something happens with our health care system or they find a cure for my cancer. It’s rattling to go to the doctor, sign in at the kiosk, and have the screen read, “You owe $1,832 for this visit. Do you want to pay now?” Of course I don’t, so it goes on my ledger that I will see in MyChart in a month or so.

I met my deductible long ago, but the bills keep piling up because there’s a difference between what the hospital charges and what the insurance company is willing to pay. That gap is my responsibility. So far, I’ve had two MRIs, a CT scan, a bone marrow biopsy, and a lumbar puncture, formerly known as a spinal tap. Besides my deductible, I owe an additional $1,800 already and the bone marrow biopsy and lumbar puncture aren’t included in that figure.

I haven’t even started treatments yet and the drugs they use aren’t very common, so I suspect they won’t be cheap, either. I have an out-of-pocket cap of $10,600, but that’s not an expense I was counting on. I’m sure I’ll manage it, but I’ll likely be carrying substantial medical debt for a long time. Between my insurance premium and out-of-pocket expenses, health care will probably become my largest single expense.

I don’t like to write too much about my personal life, especially something like this, but I suspect I’m going to get my panties in a wad over our health care system in the coming months and years. For the people who want to end the Affordable Care Act, I take it personally. Without it, I couldn’t afford care or I would have to lose my house and all my assets before I could receive it.

The Affordable Care Act as passed dealt mainly with the number of people who lacked health insurance, reducing it from more than 16% of the population to about 8%. That’s a great start, but it didn’t deal with rising costs, though it did slow the rate of increase. The next step is to reduce costs to the people who need care.

The United States is the richest country in the world and it’s not even close. We also have among the most expensive health care in the world with among the worst outcomes, and that’s not even close, either. The Affordable Care Act was the first phase in dealing with our health care problem by expanding access to care. Now, it’s time to improve the system overall by making care both more affordable and better.

We’re about to have a trillionaire in the country and conservatives are complaining that too many people are getting Medicaid. Please. They are arguing that we need to go back to the system that priced almost one in five Americans out of the market while receiving care inferior to the rest of the world. Cutting taxes and reducing regulations isn’t going to fix this problem no matter what Republicans tell themselves.

Instead, we need to try what’s working elsewhere. The system might need to be uniquely American, but it also needs to provide services without forcing bankruptcy or leaving people to die.

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Representative Brendan Jones, the GOP Majority Leader, is a hateful man. He’s the type of person who should never get power and yet has it today. Republicans in the legislature have offered up the Chapel Hill Carrboro City Schools as a punching bag for Jones and a bunch of his intellectually challenged colleagues. I guess they need to keep them busy and out of other mischief.

Jones has been dragging CHCC Superintendent Rodney Trice in front of his committee to yell at him for any number of things, but especially about books in the libraries. The legislator from Columbus County cites the Parents Bill of Rights as a reason to ban books from Chapel Hill schools. It’s a performative act for the angry ignorant mob that makes up his base. Jones hopes he can make them mad enough to go to the polls in November. Hate’s a big motivator.

He should really watch what just happened in Virginia. Republicans here and in Texas and Missouri heeded Donald Trump’s call for mid-decade redistricting to squeeze out a few more GOP Congressional districts. At the time, Republicans were excited about the prospect, believing they were offsetting gains Democrats would make in the midterm election. Instead, it looks like Democrats will gain about four seats because of a miscalculation.

As a resident of Carrboro, I can think of few things that will motivate Democrats to go to the polls more than bigoted legislators from far-off counties banning books in the public schools that attract people to live here. That increase in voters might not threaten Jones and his Neanderthals, but Michael Whatley will almost certainly pay a price and the broader GOP will, too, if history is any indication.

North Carolina today is a macrocosm of Mecklenburg County and RTP in the 1990s. Back then, new residents were moving into the area at a rapid pace, many from northern states with high taxes and strict regulations. They arrived voting Republican because they blamed Democrats in the states they left for what they considered burdensome taxes and restrictions. Throughout the 1990s, Raleigh and Charlotte were dominated by Republican leaders who benefited from the newcomers.

It didn’t last long. While those coming here might have wanted a little more freedom, they had little in common with the Republicans who would impose their version of morality and embraced thinly veiled racist attitudes. Within a decade, Republicans had lost control of the fastest growing regions of the state. They blew their advantage by embracing reactionary populists with a mean streak. Today, Republicans have almost no representation in the counties that drive most of North Carolina’s growth and income.

Brendan Jones and his compatriots are having a similar effect on the state as a whole. North Carolina is one of the fastest growing states in the nation. Those newcomers today are landing in exurban counties that have been reliably Republican. Like those who arrived in RTP and Mecklenburg in the 1990s, many are fleeing states they consider heavy-handed. Within a few years, they realize how little they have in common with book-banners and bigots. The effects are already clear in counties like Johnston and Cabarrus where Republican margins shrink visibly every election cycle.

Democrats should make Brendan Jones a poster boy. He’s already got the looks of a stereotypical good ol’ boy — porcine and with the rare ability to make an expensive suit look cheap. Stick one of his asinine quotes under his photo and let everybody in suburban and exurban North Carolina know that he’s what Republicans consider a leader of the state. Not many will follow.

Mean, dumb, and ethically challenged may play well in the poorest parts of the state, but it doesn’t work with the people who are shaping it now. Democrats should make Jones and his colleagues the wedge issue. Not many people with any level of education or common sense want to be led by people who ban books and spout bigotry.

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Virginia passed a constitutional amendment yesterday to allow the legislature to gerrymander the state to give Democrats a likely 10-1 Congressional delegation. Nothing is giving me more pleasure than watching Republicans cry about it being unfair. I’ve been listening to them defend egregious gerrymanders since 2011. Payback is hell.

The response from Republicans is what happens when you spend years lying to yourself and denying accountability. To hear them tell it, Democrats have made an unprecedented move to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives with an egregious gerrymander. It’s like nothing came before it.

Donald Trump started the Gerrymander Wars of 2026 when he demanded more GOP seats in states like Texas and North Carolina. Republicans got shocked and offended when Democrats retaliated. Nobody but the GOP thought mid-decade redistricting was a good idea. So cry more, MAGA.

I don’t like extreme gerrymandering, but I also don’t believe Democrats should unilaterally disarm. If Republicans are going to end competition and rig every district in states where they have the power to do so, Democrats should too. Last night, the GOP got a taste of its own medicine — and possibly more pain to come.

For almost two decades, progressives pushed a project to try to rectify gerrymandering with nonpartisan redistricting efforts. Several states, including some Republican-leaning ones, bought in, but the idea never caught on. Republicans countered with an initiative of their own — Project REDMAP, a push for extreme gerrymandering in states the GOP won in 2010.

Instead of moving toward more competition, Republicans’ success in redistricting has sharply reduced the number of competitive Congressional districts. In 2006, there were about 60 competitive races across the country. This year, at the same point in the redistricting cycle, there are fewer than 35. That’s not very democratic.

North Carolina has been at the center of the storm. Republicans made the case that partisan gerrymandering was fine when former Representative David Lewis infamously said, “I propose that we draw the maps to give a partisan advantage to 10 Republicans and three Democrats because I do not believe it’s possible to draw a map with 11 Republicans and two Democrats.” Republicans sued to keep their rigged maps and won at the Supreme Court. That ruling resulted in partisans rushing to press their advantage. Last night, we saw the result.

I suspect Democrats are going to win back the House regardless of whether the Virginia maps hold or not, but I’m just glad to see Democrats fighting back. Trump and the Republicans have launched a concerted and sustained assault on institutions that protect democracy. They’ve changed rules to do it and Democrats need to play by those rules until they can overhaul the game instead of trying to play by rules that are now obsolete.

Again, cry more. It makes me happy.

Thomas’s rule: In a Democratic wave election, don’t nominate candidates who make waves.

Late primaries in Maine and Michigan might determine whether Democrats control the US Senate or not. In Michigan, a three-way primary is shaping up to be a barnburner between a traditional pro-labor Democrat, a young progressive state senator, and an activist Muslim doctor with the support of Bernie Sanders. In Maine, Democrats are almost certainly going to nominate a first-time populist candidate with a long history of controversial actions and statements.

Democrats need to hold all of their Senate seats, including the one in Michigan, and flip four GOP states to win control. North Carolina is at the center of the battle where the Cook Political Report just shifted the race to “leans D,” favoring former Governor Roy Cooper over Trump stooge Michael Whatley. Other potential flips include Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Nebraska, where an independent candidate is giving the incumbent Republican a run for his money. Texas and Florida are even on the radar screen, but Maine should be the race where Democrats have the best chance.

The Maine primary is between Graham Platner and Governor Janet Mills. It’s a disappointing choice. Mills is a relatively unpopular governor who would be 78 years old when sworn in. It won’t matter, though, because Platner is leading her by massive margins. Maine had better choices but has left itself with two extremes — extremely old or extremely left-wing.

For his part, Platner seems to be a guy who likes applause and will say whatever is necessary to get it. He’s been all over the map, making outrageous, often offensive statements on the internet for the past fifteen years. He’s apologized for his rhetoric and the Nazi death’s head tattoo on his chest. I wouldn’t let a Republican get away with it, so I can’t really forgive Platner, either.

Platner has blamed women for sexual assault, saying they should not get drunk and sleep with people they don’t like. He’s called rural people racist and stupid. He said all police officers were bastards. And in 2021 he called himself a full-blown Communist. All of this baggage will come up in the general election when low-information voters who haven’t heard it yet will determine the outcome.

He’s staked himself out on the left side of the political spectrum in a state that is notoriously independent and moderate. While Platner will face Republican Senator Susan Collins, the state’s other senator is independent Angus King. Maine has a lot of traditionally conservative voters and no history of progressive governance, at least in the modern sense. We’ll see if they’ve been hiding.

Collins seems to go into every election cycle in trouble and yet comes out on top. She’s positioned herself as a moderate even though she reliably votes with Trump. Mainers might not like her, but I’m skeptical they will trade out a senator who sounds like a moderate for one who sounds like Bernie Sanders. Sanders lost the Democratic primary in 2020 to Joe Biden. We’ll find out if there’s really a silent progressive majority out there.

In Michigan, Congresswoman Haley Stevens started the race as the front-runner with the support of the state’s political establishment. State Senator Mallory McMorrow made a name for herself in the state Senate with a viral speech in 2022 that pushed back hard against Republicans accusing Democrats of standing with sex abusers. She’s built a strong campaign, wooing younger voters and progressive women. A public health doctor named Abdul El-Sayed has embraced the most progressive agenda and made opposition to Israel a centerpiece of his campaign, or at least that’s the way it looks from here.

If El-Sayed wins the nomination, I think Democrats will lose the state. Michigan still has a lot of blue-collar workers and rural voters who don’t trust the party. They’ve voted for Trump in two of the last three elections. El-Sayed may be able to win the nomination with thirty-something percent of Democratic primary voters but his ceiling will be very low.

Both Stevens and McMorrow would come across as more traditional Democrats in a general election, benefiting from the favorable political environment. Neither has intentionally courted controversy like El-Sayed, who has campaigned with Hasan Piker, the left-wing podcaster who said America deserved 9/11 and has said that he prefers Hamas to Israel. In states like Michigan, swing voters still matter and they generally aren’t very ideological.

I’m more bullish on Ohio and Alaska. Former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown is a real left-leaning populist with a solid track record. He’s outperforming his Republican opponent, incumbent John Husted. Brown has double the cash on hand that Husted has and outraised him by more than 3-1 in the first quarter. Ohio has taken a beating under Trump.

In Alaska, former Congresswoman Mary Peltola is also putting together a strong campaign against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. She raised more than four times as much as Sullivan in her March report. She’s already won a statewide race for Alaska’s single Congressional seat and this time she’s got a favorable political environment to help her.

If Platner loses while Cooper, Brown, and Peltola win, Democrats will need to find a seat in considerably tougher states. Texas, Iowa, Florida, and Nebraska are next on the list. If Democrats lose Michigan, they will need to pick up two of those states, making a majority look very difficult.

Texas state Representative James Talarico seems to be a unique talent and if he faces ethically challenged Attorney General Ken Paxton, the race will certainly be on the national radar. Still, Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat in decades and Paxton won his current position despite a corruption trial with salacious allegations. It’s still a pretty red state. Iowa, Florida, and Nebraska are really tough.

The situation reminds me of Republicans in 2010. Despite the huge GOP wave, Democrats held the Senate. Republicans nominated a series of unelectable candidates in states they should have won. Remember Congressman Todd Akin who said women couldn’t get pregnant in a “legitimate rape?” Or Christine O’Donnell who ran an ad declaring “I’m not a witch?” Good times.

Waves only go so far and candidates matter. Swing voters matter in states where elections are determined by less than five percent. They will matter more in a wave election where low-information voters are prepared to vote against the White House in large numbers unless they are distracted by controversial candidates who make them think otherwise. I fear that Platner and El-Sayed are those types of candidates.

Here’s my bias about elections and the electorate. Not that much changes. Midterms are a referendum on whoever is in the White House. Six or seven months out from a campaign, voters will say a lot of things that will change. As the general election gets closer, they will come home. Progressives and liberals will vote for the Democrat. Conservatives will vote for the Republicans. Moderates and swing voters will choose the least risky candidate because they don’t really trust change, no matter how much they might want it.

So in Maine, they know more about Susan Collins than Graham Platner. They’ve been frustrated with her for years and, at this point in the election cycle, really want something different. By October, they might not like her any more than they do now, but they know who she is. They will just be starting to learn about Platner and his careening record. Whether they believe it all or not, Collins in comparison is the safer choice — the devil they know.

In Michigan, it’s simpler. McMorrow and Stevens threaten to split the traditional liberal vote while El-Sayed is trying to consolidate the most progressive voters. His ceiling is low and he will likely not survive a general election. McMorrow or Stevens would probably win on the strength of the wave, not a controversial campaign.

See my rule at the top.

I was barely aware of the Eric Swalwell scandal before he was gone. That’s how Democrats deal with abusers. It’s not how Republicans deal with them. The parties are not the same.

I never liked Eric Swalwell. He seemed like an internet creation looking for clicks more than a serious political leader. In other words, he looked like a Republican. Now we know he behaved like one, too.

Republicans are trying to claim that Swalwell’s behavior was an open secret in Washington. If that’s true, why didn’t they do something about it? They’ve got a whole army of conspiracy theorists and fake news reporters making unfounded allegations every day. Why didn’t they know about Swalwell? Were they too busy making up stuff to pay attention to the open secret? Or are they just too incompetent to chase real scandals instead of imaginary ones? Or maybe it wasn’t as open as they’re now claiming. I’m going with number three.

But give Swalwell a little credit. He brought down one Republican Congressman that the GOP has been protecting for months. Rep. Tony Gonzales admitted to an affair with an aide who committed suicide. Before her death, he demanded she send him nude photos of herself. Republicans were willing to put their House majority before any sense of morality. Not until Swalwell resigned, when they added to their majority by a seat, did they force Gonzales out. Shameful.

Of course, they’re still protecting Florida Congressman Cory Mills (no relation, but if he were, I wouldn’t coddle him like Republicans are). Mills has been accused of assaulting one girlfriend and threatening to release nude photos of another after she dumped him. I’m not sure what his wife says about all this, but Republicans in Congress seem fine with it. They don’t even mind that Mills seems to have been profiting off of federal contracts.

Really, none of this should be any surprise. The GOP has rallied around a con man and reality TV star who is plundering the government, selling pardons, and who has a long history of dubious sexual relations, including credible accusations of abuse. The party has abandoned any pretense of morality and they’ve largely taken the evangelical community with them.

The Republican Party is now made up of the people who lie to their supporters, the ones who lie to themselves, and the aggressively ignorant. Winning is their only core value and they’ve set up an alternative reality that allows them to live with themselves. Personal responsibility and public accountability have been casualties of their electoral success.

The liars are people like Thom Tillis and most of the Republican establishment. They know what’s right and do what’s wrong. Erick Erickson, for instance, often goes on Twitter or his podcast and speaks the truth, but stops short of any accountability. Tillis and Erickson will put what’s good for the Republican Party ahead of what’s good for the country every single time.

The people who lie to themselves are basically in denial. I saw a Republican Congressman say he didn’t hold Donald Trump responsible for his actions because he believes the accusations against the president are false. Trump has been found liable for sexual assault and spent much of the 1980s and 1990s making outrageous claims that would have prevented most other politicians from getting elected to anything. He bragged about illicit affairs, said that no age was too young for sex, palled around with Jeffrey Epstein, and paid off a porn star to prevent her from talking about their tryst. People who don’t believe the evidence in front of them, much of it in Trump’s own words, are in deep denial. They are both pathetic and dangerous.

Closely related to the people in denial are the aggressively ignorant. They are mostly rank-and-file MAGA. They lack critical thinking skills and are easily manipulated by the right-wing media ecosystem. They seek out confirmation bias and are not open to opinions or facts that contradict their reality. They are willingly manipulated by the liars and the deniers to vote against their self-interest or for things they supposedly oppose.

These people make up about 35%-40% of the population, far too much for a healthy society. They’ve allowed people devoid of morals to proliferate in government because winning is the central unifying principle of the party. My hope for open dialogue and debate is essentially gone because one side so routinely says one thing and does another that the trust necessary for a healthy democracy has been destroyed — and Republicans destroyed it.