With just under four weeks to go in the election, the political environment is continuing to deteriorate for Republicans. Donald Trump has apparently decided that he’s going to fight the Republican Party as well as Hillary Clinton. He’s bashing Speaker Paul Ryan on twitter and leaving down-ballot Republicans in a terrible position.
Polls show that candidates who disavow him now pay a serious penalty with the base that still supports Trump. However, large portions of the undecided electorate, particularly women, are abandoning him at a remarkable pace. Polls this morning show that he’s trailing Ohio by nine and is tied in Utah. If the trend holds, he’s facing a landslide.
In North Carolina, no high quality public polls have been released since the weekend. However, going into it, Clinton held a small but significant lead, Roy Cooper was up on Pat McCrory, and Deborah Ross was tied with Burr. If North Carolina is following the trends in other states, then Democrats here are poised to have good election cycle.
While much of the electorate’s position is solidifying, external events could still move the needle. Hurricane Matthew is giving Pat McCrory a lot of free airtime and the opportunity to show off his leadership skills. However, PPP’s Tom Jensen, who has probably polled North Carolina and McCrory more than anyone, says that opinions of McCrory are baked in. That’s bad news for the governor.
Also, the mail-in ballot data is still ominous for Republicans in North Carolina. Democratic and Unaffiliated ballots are up by about 10% over 2012, but GOP ballots are down 43%. These are wave numbers if they hold in the same-day early vote and day-of voting.
Nationally, a terrorist attack or threat from somewhere else could shake up the political environment. Trump would need to look presidential for it to help him and, so far, he’s not succeeded in previous crisis situations like Orlando. He’ll need to be reined in if he hopes to recover. As long he makes the election about him, he’s hurting himself and his fellow Republicans.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
The Presidential race is a study in contrasts. The Democratic candidate is organized, prepared and careful. The Republican candidate is confused, inconsistent, unprepared, anti-intellectual and impetuous.
Americans have never witnessed a Republican campaign so devoid of content and policy and so filled with personal attacks.
Reagan stood for something substantive, and he was able to speak to the higher vision that ignited the American imagination. He was an exceptional orator. He had served as Governor of California and President of the Actors Guild. He brought a competent team of advisors to the White House. George H. W. Bush was a career statesman who brought experience in Congress, leadership of the Republican Party, leadership of the CIA and eight years service as Vice President to the table. Even Richard Nixon brought credentials and experience to the job. He had served eight years as vice president, served in the Congress, and his scholarship as a graduate of the Duke University School of Law. George W. Bush was educated at two Ivy League Universities and he was a popular governor in the State of Texas.
Each of these men possessed flaws and they brought baggage to Washington.
The Trump campaign is irresponsible, incompetent, and dishonest. Donald Trump would be impeachable within minutes of taking the oath of office. His conflicts of interest, his pathological dishonesty, his sexual adventures, his self-dealing, his business failures, his bread-line of creditors, his dealing with enemies of the American government and his lack of character make him uniquely unqualified to service as the nation’s 44th president. He is a repugnant empty suit.
I wish someone would write the full, accurate, account about the buzz-word “Benghazi”. No one writes about the attack happening in the AFTERNOON, and that it was the republican congress who cut the Embassy’s budget so far back, they were unable to have more men there for protection. Amazing how many are entrenched in Trump’s lie-filled rhetoric, and are determined not to research for the truth. All of those “non-readers” are gullible Fox “News” watchers. As for “wanting a change” – let’s get real and admit the republican Congress, Senate, and Supreme Court have been running this country for the past 7 years.