December is always a slow news month in the world of NC politics. That’s OK. We need a break from talking about 2016 anyway. So instead, here’s a post with some observations on voter registration statistics. We’re going to look at updated voter registration data from last Saturday and compare it to data from November 6, 2012.
On 11/6/12, registered voters in NC were 71.12% white. Now, 70.53%, a loss of 0.59%. At this rate, 2016 will see whites as below 70% of registered voters for the first time ever.
89 of 100 counties saw whites decrease as share of registered voters. Perhaps the exceptions, where whites actually gained, are most interesting: Hyde (+0.68%), Camden (+0.58%), Swain (+0.44%), Pender (+0.35%), Caswell (+0.32%), Martin (+0.29%), Jones (+0.25%), Northampton (+0.05%), Chowan (+0.05%), Bladen (+0.04%), and Perquimans (+0.03%). All of these are mostly rural counties in the eastern part of the state. I’d say the reason for most of the gains is that blacks are moving away rather than whites actually growing in terms of population.
The counties where whites lost the most as a share of registered voters: Anson (-1.78%), Mecklenburg (-1.63%), Scotland (-1.62%), Nash (-1.39%), Cabarrus (-1.39%), Guilford (-1.27%), and Orange (-1.24%). Mecklenburg is by far the most important of those counties and the loss of white voters is not good news for the county GOP.
Whites maintain their strongest leader in voter registration in Mitchell, where they’re 98.15% of registered voters. Their percentage is smallest in Robeson, where they’re only 31.62% of registered voters.
The ‘whitest’ county won by Hagan was Buncombe – 88.46% white by registration. That’s an indication that there are a lot of liberal whites in that county, which is no surprise considering it contains Asheville.
The most non-white county won by Tillis was Nash – 57.18% white by registration, an indication of racially polarized voting.
Men are also losing share as a percentage of the electorate. In 2012, 45.12% male – now, 45.02%. Graham is the manliest county, at 48% registered male, still not a majority. Anson is the most womanly county, at 59.47% female. Other counties where women dominate: Scotland, Durham, Hertford, Bertie, Robeson.
Now by party. On 11/06/12, voters in NC were registered this way:
43.17% Democratic
30.86% Republican
Two years later, the numbers look like this:
41.67% Democratic
30.37% Republican
Thus, the gap between the parties decreased by 1.01%, to the advantage of the Republicans. The GOP made their biggest gains in Tyrrell, Camden, Jones, Currituck, and Hyde counties. Democrats actually improved in Madison, Mecklenburg, Mitchell, Henderson, Avery, and Halifax counties.
The largest growth came in unaffiliated voters. In 2012, 25.67%. Now, 27.57%. The largest growth in unaffiliated voters came in Madison, where they used to be 26.75% of registered voters. Now they’re 30.22%. Unaffiliateds dominate in four counties: Currituck, Watauga, Transylvania, and Dare. In Currituck, they’re 39.90% of registered voters.
The most Democratic county by registration was Northampton – 76.30% Democratic. The most Democratic-heavy county that went for Tillis? Tyrrell County, 63.99% registered Democratic yet Tillis carried it by less than 2 points. Hyde County is even more Democratic (64.29%) and went for Romney in 2012 but Hagan in 2014. There are a lot of conservative Democrats in those places.
The most Republican-heavy county won by Hagan? Forsyth. But it’s only 31% Republican. Democrats are 43%. So in no county do Republicans lead in voter registration where Hagan won. The most Republican-heavy county, period, was Mitchell, where the GOP has 62.29% of registered voters.
That’s it for now. The trends of the past continue: both parties are losing their share of registered voters but Democrats faster than the GOP, and voters unaffiliated with either party are surging. The electorate is getting more non-white and urban counties less friendly to Republicans. But if any of these trends change we’ll get our first hints by looking at the numbers here.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
WITH THE NUBER OF REGISTERED DEMOCRATS OUT NUMBERING THE REGISTERED REPUBLICANS BY A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER WHY DO WE HAVE A REPUBLICAN DOMINATED STATE GOVERNMENT? DO THE REPUBLICANS HAVE A WAY TO RIG THE ELECTIONS? DO THE REPUBLICANS CHEAT? DO DEMOCRATS LIE ABOUT HAVING VOTED OR WHO THEY VOTED FOR? ARE REPUBLICANS REGISTERING AS DEMOCRATS?
THE ONE THING THAT IS CLEAR TO ME, IS THAT THERE IS A MAJOR ROTTEN FISHY SMELL RISING OVER THE POLTICS IN NORTH CAROLINA.
I think alot of it is rural people who registered as Democrats years (and even decades ago) but have been voting more and more Republican over the years, and haven’t bothered updating their registration…These trends are especially noticable in the eastern part of the state.
If the 50,000 people that were turned away at the polls, having their rights as an American taken away (do they still have to pay taxes since they have NO voice in government) had been allowed their right to vote, Kay Hagan would have been elected. Another example of Republican theft, you can’t trust a thief.
What 50K turned away? I worked Asheville Precinct 10 where no one was turned away.
One difficulty in what is a good report: how much of the change was because of periodic purging rather than increased or decreased registration by one group or the other. If Democrats have been on books longer, they will tend to decrease their numbers as a result of purging; not because of a move one way or the other. Several prominent Republicans switched to unaffiliated during this fall. Was there any general move in that direction from either party? Many have been surprised that there has not be a significant uptick in GOP registration because of the advantage during a GOP administration of “proving you are one of us.” Have many accomplished the same thing by not registering as Republican but switching from Democrat to Unaffiliated??????