North Carolina will have elections for General Assembly again this year. The federal court ordered the legislature to redraw unconstitutional districts by March 3, 2017 and hold elections by the end of the year. Democrats are celebrating the chance to break the GOP veto-proof majorities again while Republicans are claiming judicial overreach that denies the will of the voters and undermines the state constitution.
Democrats are probably a bit too optimistic. The GOP redrew Congressional Districts this past March that preserved their 10-3 advantage and left very little competition. Besides, Democrats haven’t shown much ability to motivate people in low turnout years recently, and 2017 will surely have remarkably low turnout.
However, the GOP has no one to blame but themselves for the debacle. They used extreme gerrymandering that left the state with very few competitive districts and made a mockery of the intent of the Voting Rights Act. They watered down African-American influence by packing them into bizarrely shaped districts in an effort to strengthen their hold power. They gave themselves veto-proof majorities in both houses despite governing a state that is relatively evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.
Republicans claim they’ve done nothing that Democrats didn’t do. That’s not true. From 1994 forward, in districts drawn by Democrats, the legislature was up for grabs in virtually every election cycle until the Republican redistricting of 2011. Before taking control of the General Assembly in 2010, Republicans won the House in 1994 and 1996, and shared power for several years after that. Democrats professionalized their legislative operations before Republicans did which helped them maintain power. Still, there were far more competitive races under Democratically-drawn districts than under the GOP-drawn districts. Consequently, the state had a far more moderate government than it has today.
Republicans have undermined democracy throughout their tenure. They’ve used extreme gerrymandering to reduce competition and they’ve used voter suppression laws to limit access to the polls. They’ve extended their reach to manipulate local governments to make them less democratic and autonomous. Their tenure has been marked by authoritarian policies that reduce competition at the ballot box and limits the influence of the minority party. The GOP has been bad for democracy. Allowing them to draw new districts won’t change that.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Reading the national news, it appears that democracy is going out of style in the western world, especially among young and middle age people. Historically, (taking a very long view, not just 5 years back as the term is typically used now), our country is at the same point that previous republics have been taken over by supreme rulers? Will any of this matter? Have we seen our last election? Will very many care? Emperor Trump anyone?
I think this is the point at which we all have to remember that Hillary Clinton actually had the most votes. I agree that there is reason for serious concern, and unless all of us who feel this way decide to actually do something on a day to day basis for the next few years, we may well see the outcome you suggest. I worry about the damage already done in this state, which has certainly made many people feel it is useless to vote and perhaps even risky to acknowledge liberal views. I think the HB2 backlash probably made many feel more comfortable with have a liberal view, but the Trump vote in this state fed the fear.
As for next year, the judge’s decision will most likely go to a Supreme Court with at least one Trump appointee, so don’t count on it or the WI decision being upheld. Regardless, the GOP will still pack the districts in some way and continue with their undemocratic ways. Democratic turnout (and some better candidates) might turn the tide. I won’t hold my breath.
To me, the reason for particular optimism about less gerrymandered districts is the WI case striking down cracking and packing districts by using evidence presented with an efficiency gap model that quantifies how party-based gerrymandering dilutes the voting power of the minority party. This case will likely go to SCOTUS, which is just a Kennedy swing vote away from striking down partisan gerrymandering and he has expressed concern about free association discrimination. The efficiency gap model provides this missing piece: a way to measure discrimination by party affiliation and therefore prove it. I’ve tried to link below to a WaPo story on this case.
The silver lining for Dems would be more likely realized in the 2020 elections. A big turnout combined with less egregiously gerrymanded districts, plus continued in-state migration would be at work then. I see no way to turn around the GOP supermajority in the next 2 years…..
That’s good conventional wisdom. But with a great ground game, a unified message, a qualified slate of candidates and enthusiastic leadership at the top we could increase our turnout and take back the Senate in a year. Even if we don’t succeed entirely, we can change the mix, and the exercise can only be good for the party.
Hugh Franklin, You are quite right. Win or not we have to try! As Julia Volfson wrote so well in a Dec. 5th letter to the editor, (New Yorker): “The lesson I learned from Russia where I come from is that when something goes wrong, people merely “hope” . . . This is the last thing you should do! Dictatorships are built on the control of information and the passivity if its citizens. . . instead look for effective and straightforward ways to engage with the political process en masse.”
Please join with Aylett Colston and “Everyone’sNC.org.” Help us do exactly what you say should be done!!! GG Barefoot