Goolsby’s Retirement Leaves Competitive Open Seat in SD-09

by | Jun 16, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Senate Races, NCGA

Senate District 9: Michael Lee (R) vs. Elizabeth Redenbaugh (D)

The 9th Senate district is probably one of the nicest-looking General Assembly districts that isn’t composed entirely of whole counties. That’s because it contains all of New Hanover County, save one precinct in downtown Wilmington (but even there, legislative Republicans tried to pad their advantage – the precinct they removed is the most Democratic in the county).

So, analyzing the 9th district starts with an analysis of New Hanover County, which contains the coastal city of Wilmington. Despite being less diverse than the state as a whole, New Hanover and the 9th district is pretty much a microcosm of North Carolina. Mitt Romney won here in 2012 by 5 points, slightly more than his margin statewide. As a slightly Republican-leaning bellwether, Thom Tillis needs New Hanover if he wants to defeat Kay Hagan in November.

Goolsby Retirement

The district has tended to be occupied by some prominent NC politicians. This was Republican Patrick Ballantine’s seeat before he stepped down to run for governor in 2004, losing to Mike Easley. Then his law partner, Woody White, was appointed to fill out his term, he ran for reelection but was defeated by Julia Boseman, who was openly lesbian. (White lost a GOP primary for Congress a little more than a month ago to David Rouzer.) Boseman retired in 2010 and the current occupant, Thom Goolsby, ran for it.

goolsby

Goolsby is an outspoken member of the conservative caucus. His support for ultrasounds for women seeking abortions earned him a tougher-than-expected race in 2012, when he went up against Deb Butler. An ad where she appeared with a vaginal wand generated national attention, but Goolsby managed to prevail. A couple months later he courted controversy when he referred to Moral Monday as ‘Moron Monday’ in an editorial, and polls showed him facing a potentially tough race in 2014. Goolsby ultimately decided not to run. He may yet reappear on the political scene as a candidate for Attorney General or for Congress (Goolsby lives in downtown Wilmington, which is in the 3rd congressional district, currently occupied by Walter Jones).

Midterm Turnout Gives Lee Slight Advantage

The GOP could be better off with a fresh face here. Given that New Hanover leans slightly to the right and this is a midterm election year, Republicans should be favored. But Democrats can never be counted out here, as evidenced by Julia Boseman’s tenure. And Team Blue has a strong candidate in Elizabeth Redenbaugh, who is a woman and has service on the Board of Education, both electoral assets in North Carolina. Redenbaugh has more individual donors than any other candidate for North Carolina Senate, and has outraised her Republican opponent, Michael Lee, so far. The big issues in this race? Teacher pay and film incentives.

Helping Lee is the midterm environment. In midterm years, New Hanover’s liberal voters tend to disappear, and the electorate becomes older and more Republican, with the beachfront crowd playing a bigger role. While the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections were pretty close here, in 2010 Richard Burr won the 9th, 60%-38%. The national groups pouring money into the Senate race will probably boost Democratic turnout, but one wonders if that will be enough. Redenbaugh’s task is to convince enough conservative-leaning moderates than the General Assembly needs to be reigned in. If the electorate isn’t prohibitively Republican, then she has a good chance of doing so. For now, though, I’m pegging this race as ‘Tilts GOP’.

Redenbaugh, by the way, is quite an interesting candidate. She’s a Republican-turned-Democrat who is very outspoken about her Christian faith. If NC Democrats have a good night on November 6th, you’re going to see her in the State Senate.

Counties in district: New Hanover

District Rating: This district is Tilt Republican. At this stage, the race might as well be a coin flip, but the odds very slightly favor one party over the other. Races in the Tilt category are likely to be competitive through Election Day.

2012 Result
Thom Goolsby – 54%
Deb Butler – 46%

Voter Registration
34.3% Democrat
33.7% Republican
31.5% Unaffiliated

82.8% White
12.0% Black
5.2% Other

Results in Other Elections         

2012 President
53.0% Romney
45.8% Obama

2012 Governor
57.4% McCrory
39.5% Dalton

2010 Senate
59.7% Burr
38.0% Marshall

2008 Senate
52.5% Hagan
43.4% Dole

Social Media Support
Elizabeth Redenbaugh – 329
Michael Lee – 7

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