Governor’s Re-election Won’t Be That Easy

by | Mar 22, 2016 | 2016 Elections, Campaigns, NC Politics, NCGov, Politics, Presidential race | 19 comments

Three hours after John Davis released his optimistic column on Governor McCrory’s re-election chances, based mostly on the successful passage of the $2 billion bond issue on March 15, I wrote John to let him know that I agreed that he had made a powerful argument in McCrory’s favor. Like Thomas Mills, I often agree with Davis’ analyses of what makes North Carolina’s politics and government tick. But, I find that there is another more potent variable operating against the Governor’s re-election that may cancel out the accolades the McCrory campaign team makes on his new “education” accomplishment—the passage of the bond issue.

Parenthetically, in several published op-eds. I publicly opposed the bond issue—not because of the needed bond building projects—but because I thought that it was a clever, political strategic move by the Governor and the GOP leaders of the State Legislature to pass the buck. They got elected by claiming that they opposed more government spending and taxation. Yet, in this one gigantic bond issue they have made the state liable for an enormous amount of spending while falsely claiming we really won’t have to pay for it. So, now the Governor and the Republican Legislature, can have it both ways and will in the future argue: “Hey, we didn’t increase spending and taxes…you, the voters did!”

Looking long-term, and past the short-term gains from the bond issue, I believed that a defeat for McCrory and some GOP anti-education legislators in November, would help the University and Community College Systems more than one bond issue. Besides, what was the hurry? If we can wait a year for a new U.S. Supreme Court Justice, couldn’t we wait until a newly elected governor calls for a bond referendum in 2017?

O.K., we fell for the scam and are stuck with it. But the consequences down the road are coming in a few weeks. Note that the Republican leadership in the State Legislature recently announced that they plan to cut money to operate North Carolina’s colleges and universities THIS year. Yet, just days ago, UNC President Spelling (Bless her Republican heart), said she was going to ask the legislature for an increase in spending of about the same amount the GOP says it wants to cut! (Another story, N’est-ce pas?) Also note that there has been no commitment by the Republican Governor and Legislature to actually fund future operations (e.g., faculty, staff, maintenance and other costs) for those new buildings and projects in the $2 billion bond issue.

Back to John Davis’ thesis that McCrory should win re-election based on the progress McCrory claims he has made in education, job growth, reducing unemployment and other perceived achievements of the past three years. Maybe that makes sense to some at first glance, EXCEPT that Donald Trump (or less likely, but equally unelectable, Ted Cruz) will head the ballot as the official party leader of North Carolina Republicans. Of course, Democrats running for President, U.S. Senator, Governor, Council of State and even Congressional offices, if they are smart, will not let McCrory disassociate himself from The Donald. Don’t you even foresee Democratic candidates for State Legislature, County Commission, perhaps even School Boards, doing the same? What a gift to the Democratic party.

Running independently of Trump will be a neat trick for McCrory and many Republican candidates. You should start to catalogue the reasons given by GOP candidates for their running away from Trump—it will be a fascinating and immensely amusing exercise. Watch them squirm…political contortions not seen in this state since, oh, let’s say, George McGovern was the Democratic Presidential candidate? I know because we had to do just that in Michigan GOP Governor George Romney’s 1964 re-election campaign with Republican presidential candidate, Barry Goldwater, heading the ticket. Another story, but let’s just say it was tough. Because now you will have to teach Republican voters how to split their tickets, knowing at the same time that more than 50% voted straight Republican in the last presidential election. Added to this is a new, first-time, Republican law that forces North Carolina voters into mandatory ticket-splitting for every single office on the long ballot, and that should worry McCrory’s strategists more than anything else. No one knows how that will turn out.

Can’t you see the anti-Trump tv and print ads now?  Will any GOP candidates even use their partisan identification, as Republicans, in their advertising or on the ballot? Will Trump be any better perceived by the voters seven long, angst -filled months from now? Isn’t he already under water on job and approval ratings? How will McCrory get Trump to avoid campaigning in North Carolina—a battleground state (shades of Obama/Hagan in 2012)? Will Governor McCrory endorse Trump or even be seen with him? Indeed, haven’t we seen this play before in Act IV, as the villain dies?

It is enough to give an old political consultant a headache, and the election is still seven months away.  So, if you thought this presidential campaign was entertaining and unique so far, stand by, for it will only get more fascinating and frustrating.

19 Comments

  1. Ebrun

    I realize terms like “pork barrel spending” and “long-term capital improvement projects” are hard for those who are intellectually challenged to comprehend. But hang in there, D.g., exposure to new concepts will enhance your limited knowledge in the long run.

    And I really get a chuckle when you and your cohorts ascribe some sinister aura to those who challenge your left wing orthodoxy. “Beijin (sic) spin doctor?” Really? That sort of juvenile description wouldn’t make good copy for a cheap SciFi novel.

    But I’ll give you a hint. The handle ‘Ebrun’ was assigned to me by my ISP when I first obtained an email account over 15 years ago. And that ISP is a North Carolina company which no connections to China. But keep speculating about it. I am anxious to see what you and Walt come up with next. LOL

    • Ebrun

      C’mon D.g., all those nasty personal insults just because I made reference to “pork barrel spending” and”long-term capital improvements projects?” I should have realized by now that basic concepts of public finance and other standard tenets of political science are obviously beyond your educational level.

  2. Ebrun

    Give it up, D.g. Sorry I had to yank your chain, but you’re in over your head. Critical thinking is obviously not your strong suit.

  3. Ebrun

    D.g., You sure spend a lot computer type attempting to rebut my “useless” words. If nothing else, your feeble rebuttals show you are the stereotype knee jerk ideologue with little intellectual acuity.

  4. William B Edison

    I opposed the bond issue. This should have been handled by the legislature and added to the budget. The way it was handled it looks like those in the majority in Raleigh did not increase taxes, but they did with the bonds. Because they FAILED to do their job the people that voted for the bonds voted their own tax increase. Just another tax to go along with the HUNDREDS of new TAXES our republican legislators have gave us. A few (tax on car repair, on plumbing, movie tickets).

    • Ebrun

      There is no empirical evidence to suggest that bond financing inevitably leads to a tax increase. In fact, just the opposite is likely to occur. Bond issues for long-term capital improvement projects is the preferred way to finance capital projects by state and local governments, and by spreading out the costs over the life of the projects, can help avoid near-term tax increases. This is especially relevant in today’s low interest rate environment.

      That said, I also opposed the bond issue, not because of the method of financing, but because of the projects to be financed. Much too much pork barrel spending on brick and mortar projects for the UNC system, which will receive the bulk of the bond funds. No funding at all for long-term transportation improvements.

      UNC supporters and the UNC communities across the state were big backers of the bond issue. They were able to persuade a legislature loaded with UNC system graduates to authorize the bond referendum. Conservative politicians can become enamored with proposed spending when it’s earmarked for their alma maters.

      • Ebrun

        D.g., I am sure you can cite some research to back up your claim that bond issues lead to tax increases, can’t you? I didn’t notice any links in your post supporting your claim

        With regard to your claim that bond issues are how governments fund things like buildings, roads, etc, of course they do. Those are the long-term “capital improvement projects” I referred to. You can bone up on that by reviewing the basic tenets of Public Finance 101.

  5. A. D. Reed

    I, too, opposed the bond issue, for three reasons: one, I didn’t want McCrory to put that feather in his cap (and call it macaroni); second, the focus on erecting campus buildings while paying no attention to essential infrastructure like the roads and bridges that are now about 45th in the nation in quality, or to maintaining anything in the “long” term, i.e., more than the terms of office of current officials; finally, the fact that bond sales benefit one group of individuals–the already wealthy and the banks that underwrite them–at the expense of everyone else. When everyone pays progressive tax rates for new roads, the cost is shared and so is the benefit. When, instead, the wealthy enjoy massive tax cuts and then profit by bond investments (tax-free), they’re the only ones who benefit–and despite the governor’s pablum, the principal and interest DO have to be repaid in the future, most likely by taxes levied on yet more services used by the poor and working class.

  6. TY Thompson

    If McCrory has a hard time getting re-elected, the very first reason is because he is locked in a death struggle through his proxies, the NCGOP Central Committee, and the base of his Party for control. Battle lines are now being formed between grassroots supporters of the NCGOP Chairman and Vice Chairwoman on one side and the Gov and legislative leaders on the other. Break out the popcorn, this will be fun to watch over the summer.

  7. walter DE VRIES

    Have you ever wondered who “Ebrun” is? Perhaps, you don’t really care. But, he (can’t be a she) seems to have a full-time job pulling cliches straight from the GOP talking points computer for almost daily insertion into PoliticsNC. He never has deviated from the right wing party line. Yet, every good commentator, should fall off the ideological bandwagon once in a while, right?.
    So, I googled “Ebrun” whose headquarters is Beijin, Guangdong, China, and he has four (4) members, one (1) contributor and no (0) followers. Seems about right, doesn’t it?
    Oh, “Ebrun,” according to the Urban Dictionary, “cannot be defined.”
    Just thought you might like to know. Peace.

    • Mr David B Scott

      IMHO, no one should be able to comment on any serious website without using their names, not some moniker. If a person is not willing to divulge his identity, he should not be considered valid. “Anonymous”/Ebrun is a name one can adopt when they want to take cheap shots and don’t want to own their words or thoughts.

      • Ebrun

        David, Suggesting I want to remain anonymous to take cheap shots is a “cheap shot.”

    • Ebrun

      I am flattered that you took the time to search for my identify, Walt. And while you may think you’re clever, you’re way off base. I am a resident of NC and have been since the mid 70s. Worked a while for the federal government, the State of NC and for a non profit in RTP. Never been to China. But I do believe I attended some meetings where you present back in the late 70s, maybe the early 80s. Remember when Bill Bennett was at Chapel Hill?

      But of course, pondering my identify is a convenient diversion to avoid a substantive response to my GOP-inspired “cliches.” And when a conservative dares to challenge left-wing conventional wisdom on this blog, it does seem to rattle the liberals who are predominate here.

      So keep us up to speed on your latest liberal fantasies, Walt, and I’ll respond whenever I think you’ve engaged in biased political spin.

  8. Mr David B Scott

    This is an excellent summary of the many quandaries facing the GOP in NC. Both the bond issue and the “education” lottery are blatant examples of financial tricks to make our citizens think they’re getting something for nothing. If the NCGA would do the just thing, they would raise taxes so ALL our citizens could share in the price of doing the state’s business. Instead, they use a game of chance peddled to the poor or use a bond issue that most don’t understand. If taxation is now a cardinal sin, why doesn’t the ruling party just close up shop and go home—-everyman for himself. Our national infrastructure is now rated 16th in the world and heading south. Is it not time we finally admit: THESE PEOPLE CANNOT GOVERN.

    • Ebrun

      David, you seem to be suggesting that the GOP is responsible for the NC Education Lottery. The Lottery was signed into law in 2005 by DEMOCRAT Governor Mike Easley. And the lottery bill passed the NC Senate on a tie breaking vote from DEMOCRAT Lt. Governor Bev Purdue. Wise up before you post!

      • Mr David B Scott

        Mr. Ebrun, I am well aware of that sad fact. That still does not make it moral or the sensible and sustainable way of supporting education. Why has the Common Good become so toxic in this political environment——–so toxic that we are willing to compromise our morality?

      • Charles Hogan

        but the Republicans are the ones that voted this year to stop lottery funds from going it anything other that maintenance . It no longer funds “Education”. There starve the beast tactic at work

        • Ebrun

          Maintenance of what? Legislation citation?

  9. Ebrun

    Straight ticket voting has always benefited the Democrat Party. And you suggest now that GOP voters are not savvy enough to wade through the ballot and vote Republican for most every office? That’s just anti-Republican fantasy. The absence of straight ticket voting could well save the GOP candidates down ballot even if Trump fails to carry NC. Democrats are much more likely to vote only for the Presidential ticket, or get confused about their down ballot votes.

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