Gravis Marketing: Hagan Leads

by | Jul 31, 2014 | Features, Poll Analysis, Polling, US Senate

Another poll, another Hagan lead. This time from Gravis Marketing. This is the conservative-leaning pollster’s first foray into the North Carolina Senate race. Even though most people think Gravis has a Republican bent, all the latest polls from them I looked at seemed to conform with other surveys, so the result looks spot-on. Here’s what Gravis polled on:

Senate race
Hagan – 44%
Tillis – 41%
Undecided – 15%

A ton of undecided. And note that Sean Haugh is not included, even though I think polls should give respondents the option to choose from an “other” option. This means even in a two-way race, Hagan is ahead. And this is a likely voters poll, also.

2016 Governor
Cooper – 46%
McCrory – 44%
Undecided – 10%

Bad news for McCrory. It’s not good for any governor to be trailing in a head-to-head at this point in time. Cooper is unknown throughout the state. This, interestingly, is the reverse of what Democratic pollster PPP found in their last poll, where McCrory led Cooper by 2. Luckily for McCrory, he has another two years to get his approval rating rightside up.

Obama Approval
41% Approve
52% Disapprove

This is about as low as Obama can get in this state. If the race is a referendum on Obama, then surely Hagan should be toast. That she’s leading at this point indicates that voters probably have other things on their mind than national issues.

2016 President
Hillary Clinton – 45%
Rand Paul – 43%
Undecided – 11%

Rand Paul – 44%
Elizabeth Warren – 35%
Undecided – 21%

There’s a huge electability gap between Clinton and Warren. If the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, then NC will probably be a toss-up once again. Anyone else and NC probably goes red, simply because the other Democrats don’t look very strong. Fortunately for Democrats, most pundits think a Hillary Clinton 2016 nomination is a certainty.

Averaging the Polls
U.S. Senate
Hagan – 43%
Tillis – 39%
Haugh – 6%

2016 Governor
Cooper – 44%
McCrory – 44%

2016 President
Hillary Clinton – 45.5%
Rand Paul – 43.0%

We didn’t need this poll to tell us where things stood in the U.S. Senate race. Hagan is up by a couple points, with or without Haugh, thanks probably to another tumultuous legislative session. With the General Assembly adjourning after giving teachers a raise, the month of August means a fresh start for Tillis and the opportunity to get his campaign back on track. Get ready, this is going to be an ugly, expensive contest. And it’s about to begin … for real.

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