There’s already speculation that Kay Hagan might run against Richard Burr in 2016. I think it’s more coming from pundits and Democratic operatives than from Hagan herself. Nevertheless, it’s an interesting proposition.
My first question is, why would she want to go through what she just went through? That was a long and grueling campaign. There’s no indication that one in 2016 would be any easier. However, some people are gluttons for punishment and if they are willing to serve, more power to them.
If Hagan decides to run, she will be the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. She almost beat Thom Tillis in a year that was horrible for Democrats nationally. She showed that she can run a disciplined campaign and can raise a boatload of money. She also has an organization so she won’t need to build an infrastructure from scratch.
In addition, she starts with high name recognition. Her negatives might be high now, but they will come down quickly as the impact of the negative ads subside. She’ll also benefit from the inevitable buyers’ remorse that occurs after almost every election. The first sign of gridlock and folks will be blaming Thom Tillis.
The folks on the left will complain that she didn’t run on Obama’s record and demand a more liberal voice. That’s not who gets elected in North Carolina. We get either business friendly moderates in the model of Jim Hunt or Pat McCrory (remember that guy in the campaign commercials back in 2012?) or raging populists like Jesse Helms or John Edwards. Right now, I don’t see any populists on the horizon in North Carolina for 2016.
On the down side, Hagan will start with the same baggage she had in the campaign. She voted with Obama 96% of the time (or whatever percentage the ad makers use). By 2016, voters are likely to be ready to see the end of the Obama presidency. They were ready to see Bill Clinton and George Bush go after their two terms. Hagan might be seen as part of the exiting president’s legacy instead of part of the future. The hoopla over the ISIS meeting will fade away and the questions over stimulus funds probably will, too, but she still won’t have major accomplishments under her belt.
Burr is a strong candidate. He’s relatively undefined but’s also not very controversial. He can raise a lot of money and will certainly put together a strong campaign. He will be a formidable candidate for anybody. However, if his party controls both houses of Congress and can’t get anything done, he can be held responsible for being part of the dysfunction in Washington. For all we know, the political environment in 2016 might be as bad for Republicans as 2014 was for Democrats.
Kay Hagan is not a dynamic candidate but she’s not a polarizing figure, either. She acquitted herself fairly well during the campaign and she won’t have the learning curve that other senate candidates face. If she decides to run, she begins the race with clear advantages though an anti-Hagan Democrat could certainly emerge. Still, she’s got a political life if she wants one.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
“Democrats need to win the Burr seat” “She’s a bridge builder and that’s what Washington needs…”
I always appreciate locals making statements with no supporting evidence.
Democrats “need” the seat? Why? .Hagan built bridges? Really…
I say its time for a fresh face like Jeff Jackson from Chapel Hill. I only speak for myself and millions who are sick and tired of career politicians.
Heck, your vaunted former Senator took job at Harvard!
As for North Carolina folk electing certain types (populists or conservative or moderates) to office?
Try something radical, elect someone who cares and works hard to do what’s right.
If Hagan couldn’t articulate the ACA effectively she should be gone.
Then again most people there think the ACA is MUCH more well conceived than Obamacare!
Too funny! Y’all deserve Thom Tillis and Pat McCrory.
She’s a bridge builder and that’s what Washington needs.”
I’m all for it. She’s a bridge builder and that’s what Washington needs. I think voters were so fed up that many stayed home and basically said, “I don’t care.” If this had been a Presidential year, Hagan would have won. It’s not the candidate, it’s the message. Hagan is a Clinton Democrat and those are very popular. But somehow we have forgotten how to engage the voter. It’s not enough to register them. We have to engage them once they’ve signed on.
Democrats need to win the Burr seat. . No two ways about. What ever that takes let’s do it.
It is really a question of how many folks turn out to vote. Hagen pulled some good numbers in polling, but lost the election. An election where the turn out was the lowest in recent history. If one could reason from good poll figures and low turn out to losing to a less then acceptable candidate like Tillis then she should not run. However, moving the former lawnmower salesmen down the road is important. If democrats can find a truly inspired and rational candidate to accomplish this, then do it.
A now-former senator who just lost to a horrible GOP candidate is the frontrunner to beat Burr. Is this the best we can do?!
You mean Moderate Hagan who just voted for the XL Pipeline? Frankly moderate Kay needs to go on and move to her place in Florida And as choices go I am convinced now Hagan was not much better than Tillis.
With friends like Hagan, who needs enemies.
The current attorney general would be a great senator from NC, however, as things stands he is looking at being governor. This not a bad thing, at least North Carolina will have a governor who dose not owe his sole to Duke and the Koch Boys. What surprises me is most voters do not see the influence of “dark money” the by product of Citizens United, to be a threat to government integrity. The ability of wealthy individuals to buy a politician is a serious threat.
I just don’t see it happening…
Tillis accepted tons of money from the Koch Boys, and if they don’t expect something in return, I would be highly surprised. I am sure Tillis made some promises.
No thanks. Hagan lost. She want win a rerun. Got to be someone else if not Democrats are in truly deep trouble.
Her constituent service stank on ice (and to be fair, so does Burr’s) and she wasn’t all that there for veterans like she claims. People of all stripes, Republicans included, detest Tillis but I think they were using one bum to throw out another. Not sure she’s the bum you want to use to throw out the third bum, Burr, in 2016.
I believe Hagen is by far more qualified to be be a US Senator then Tillis or Burr. If she is able to pull this off, it would be good thing for North Carolina. Hagen did not run away from Obama, as was the case with some democrats. Why should she, Obama care has provided millions health insurance, cut back on medical costs in several areas. Even more, if North Carolina republicans had not blocked the Medicaid expansion and state exchanges. However, the republican lies seemed to appeal to voters more then the facts. This coupled with low turn out cost Hagen the election. Hopefully in a presidential year, the voter turn out will be improved.