Hagan = Obama; Can’t Win With Typical Campaign
If Republicans want to beat Kay Hagan, they need to do two things: they need to nominate a somewhat decent candidate, and they need to turn Hagan into Obama. Whether Tillis meets the criteria for being a “decent” candidate isn’t something we know with certainty yet, and won’t know until after the election. But on the second part, there’s evidence from Tuesday night that the Hagan-Obama transformation has already been achieved. It has to do with Hagan’s rather poor primary performance (77%) and in particular her poor performance with conservative Democrats.
Hagan’s performance in the 2014 Democratic primary, by county.
Look at the map. Hagan did well in the I-85 corridor and in areas with lots of transplants. She majorly underperformed in areas of the state with a lot of conservative Democrats. In Columbus County, a conservative Democrat stronghold, she just barely won a majority of the vote. In fact, she did better in the general in 2008 than she did in the primary two nights ago. If Hagan wins in November, she will have to win like Obama did in 2008, and how he almost did in 2012: score huge margins in the urban areas of the state, while trying not to get destroyed in the more rural, white counties. The 2008 map shows Hagan winning a ton of counties in the eastern part of the state. That’s just not going to happen this year, barring something Akinesque from Tillis.
Map of Hagan’s 2008 victory against Elizabeth Dole.
Hagan’s 2008 victory, or at least her margin of victory, was a fluke. A fluke within a fluke, to be more precise. Not only did she run in a strong blue tide, but the campaign of her opponent Elizabeth Dole collapsed after she ran the awful Godless ad. Hagan won by 9 points, in the absence of “Godless” she would have won by even less. Regardless, she would have outperformed Obama either way, thanks to support from conservative Democrats; the kind that supported Republicans for President but voted Democrat everywhere else, except when Jesse Helms was running. Hagan did pretty well with these voters six years ago; she can’t rely on them this year.
The reason? The results from her primary, against two unserious opponents, shows a high level of dissatisfaction among these old-school Democrats. In fact, the results are almost exactly what you’d see if Obama himself was on the ballot. The point is that Hagan no longer has any crossover appeal among those who voted for John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. Why is that bad? Because if Hagan equals Obama, then she’s not winning reelection in 2014. Remember, Obama lost North Carolina in 2012, even with record high black turnout and support from young voters. The Black composition of the electorate certainly won’t be 23% this year, and young voters look like they’re going to sit on their hands once again. And, in no other state is a Democrat more reliant on African Americans and young voters. No incumbent is more susceptible to midterm drop-off than Kay Hagan.
North Carolina: Purplish-Red In Presidential Years. Red In Midterms.
North Carolina can be called a purple state, but only in presidential years, and even then it still has a reddish tint. In midterm years, though, it’s a red state. And while it might not be solidly red, it’s very inelastic. Romney won North Carolina by 2 points. Factor in the midterm dropoff, you’re probably dealing with a 54% Romney electorate. It’s unclear if it’s possible for Hagan to pick off enough of those Romney supporters to win.
Hagan’s situation might even be more dire than those of other vulnerable Democrats in red states like Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, and Mark Begich. Landrieu and Pryor are competitive because they’ve served a long time and voters know them well. Begich has a moderate voting record in a quirky state. All of those vulnerable Democrats have some level of crossover appeal. Kay Hagan has none. So, for all intents and purposes, Hagan is Obama. You might as well scratch off Hagan’s name off the ballot and put in the President’s. Obama lost North Carolina in 2012, remember, with record turnout and engagement from the Democratic base. Now factor in the midterm dropoff and an electorate that’s much whiter, older, and more Republican than 2012. That’s this election in a nutshell.
Hagan’s only shot is to either develop some crossover appeal, or improve on the Obama turnout machine and get even more support from the groups that supported Obama in 2012. The first option is really hard at this point in the game; the second option is pretty much impossible.
Hagan’s Only Shot at Victory: Kill Tillis
Hagan can’t win with a traditional campaign. Her only path to victory is to kill Tillis. Eviscerate Tillis. The GOP got a break when their voters decided not to nominate a Todd Akin and hand him to Hagan on a silver platter. Hagan’s job is to make Tillis into Todd Akin. Make him so utterly unacceptable that the McCain/Romney voters will have to hold their nose and vote for his opponent. That’s how Claire McCaskill won in Missouri in 2012. That’s the only way Hagan can win this year.
What does that mean? It means this election is going to be ugly. Really ugly. Thom Tillis is going to be subject to more attacks than any other candidate for statewide office in modern history. Everything is going to be on the table and no stone will go unturned in the Hagan campaign’s efforts to destroy him. His campaign team had better be prepared. The Helms/Hunt campaign of 1984 will look downright quaint in comparison to what we have in store for us this year.
The good news for Tillis? If the Hagan campaign’s goal is to turn Tillis into Todd Akin, there’s still a lot of work to be done. But when it comes to turning Hagan into Barack Obama, the job is pretty much complete. In electoral terms, Hagan = Obama. And in North Carolina, in a midterm, that’s not a good thing for her – at all.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Hagan can’t win without building a strong Democratic party from the precincts on up.
That’s part of how she (and Obama) won in 2008 – with the remnants of Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy (and Jerry Meek’s 100-county strategy here in NC).
Even though Obama’s DNC infiltrators started to dismantle Dean’s strategy beginning in June 2008, Obama himself admitted the 50-state strategy helped him in 2008.
The Obama-centric DNC strategy didn’t work for Dems in the 2010 midterms. It was a historic butt-kicking. You’d think we’d have learned something from that, but no – there was still no party-building taking place in 2012. The Obama-centric strategy with OFA on the ground beginning in 2011 was not a good plan – Obama lost NC by nearly 100K votes in 2012, and OFA bailed on the state months before because they knew the state was not winnable. Unfortunately, they dragged a lot of other candidates down with them – candidates who counted on riding Obama’s coat-tails.
So if you want to know what sort of campaign will help Kay Hagan win in 2012 – start with party building. Because she REALLY DOES needs that base!
The 50 state strategy WORKED….Obama dropped the ball in 2010 and hasn’t really picked it up since.
Moreover, what conservative democrats who say that their support is needed need to realize is that THEY need the support of progressives, and we’re not going to keep supporting them unless THEY are ALSO willing to support, enhance, maintain and promote progressive policies and candidates. Either we all get a seat at the table or I’m not lifting a finger.
“We need conservative democrats” does NOT mean that you get a filibuster where Max Baccus and the rest of the conservadems run ramshod over progressive policies.
Unfortunately, agreed.