A couple weeks ago I detailed a State Senate seat which has a good chance of being a rare GOP pickup. Today, we’re going to be looking at another seat, this time in the State House, which could also potentially help the GOP pad its margins in the General Assembly. But these seats are the exceptions in a year where Republicans are largely playing defense.
House District 2 is located in the Piedmont, north of the Research Triangle and on the Virginia border. Part of Granville County and all of Person County comprises the district. Although Democrats have a huge edge in voter registration, Mitt Romney easily carried the district and it is a competitive seat. Its present occupant is W.A. ‘Winkie’ Wilkins, a Democrat.
The district was created as a result of the 2011 redistricting, double-bunking Wilkins with Jim Crawford, one of the most conservative Democrats in the State House. Wilkins, the more liberal of the two, easily defeated Crawford in the primary and went on to be reelected in 2012. But this term will be his last, as Wilkins announced his retirement earlier this year.
Despite the overwhelming lead for Democrats in terms of voter registration, Wilkins’ victory here in 2012 was largely personal, thanks to a 2-1 margin of victory in his home county of Person, while at the same time the county’s voters backed Mitt Romney for president and Pat McCrory for governor. Wilkins, while more of a liberal, is a relic of a time when conservative, white rural voters were strongly Democratic at the local level. In an open seat situation, HD-2 voters are more likely to fall into the “new normal” paradigm of rural voters backing conservative Republicans, making this perhaps the best pickup opportunity for the GOP in either chamber of the General Assembly.
The candidates this year are Democrat Ray Jeffers, a Person County Commissioner, and Republican businessman Larry Yarborough. As of the last reporting period, Yarborough had $13,620 cash on hand while Jeffers had only $1,046. The financial disparity suggests that despite the unpopularity of the GOP legislature, voters in HD-02 are willing to replace their longtime Democrat incumbent with a solid conservative Republican.
Jeffers will need a substantial backlash against the General Assembly and will have to prove to be an exceptional campaigner in order to win in November. In the end, conservative white Democrats will probably back the Republican Yarborough, another House seat in a rural, historically Democratic area of NC lost because of the perceived liberalism of that party. But because of the uncertainty as to how voters will react to the legislature at the polls, this gets a rating of only Leans Republican. Democrats will need to greatly exceed expectations in order to retain this seat in one of the few “Blue Dog” territories where they are still strong.
Counties in district: Granville (part), Person
District Rating: Leans Republican
2012 Result
56.7% Wilkins (D)
43.3% Karan (R)
Voter Registration
60.5% Democrat
21.8% Republican
17.6% Unaffiliated
74.8% White
23.4% Black
1.8% Other
Results in Other Elections
2012 President
53.8% Romney
45.4% Obama
2012 Governor
57.2% McCrory
39.4% Dalton
2010 Senate
54.4% Burr
43.3% Marshall
2008 Senate
51.0% Hagan
46.1% Dole
Social Media Support
Commissioner Ray Jeffers (D) – 1,029
Larry Yarborough (R) – 462
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Sorry John but I have to disagree with you on this one. I’m quite familiar with this district, and its not republican leaning at all. While Commissioner Jeffers may not win by quite Winkie’s margins hes still a comfortable lock for the seat.
Hey Matt, thanks for the input. These rural, old-time Democrat seats are hard to gauge, at least for me. I’d be surprised if Jeffers is a ‘lock’ as you say but I might want to revisit this one later because you could be right. Feel free to chime in with more info on this race if you have any, a lot of these House races have their own quirks.
I also know this district well, and I’d have to say you’re both paradoxically right and wrong. Wilkins had an overwhelming resource advantage in 2012 and the hometown advantage against a less well financed Republican candidate from Granville. You’re both right to note that HD2 historically goes Democrat at the local race level. But even with his avalanche of mailers throughout the district, Wilkins got less than 48% of the vote in Granville. One reason for that is that southern Granville’s population is booming and a lot of conservative voters are moving in. There are quite a few new arrivals since the 2012 election and it practically guarantees that HD2 will go Republican this decade if it doesn’t in 2014.
But John, you didn’t point out that Yarborough is also from Person County and is a former commissioner which means both candidates have roughly equal name recognition in Person County. Between that and the fact that the Republican candidate has the overwhelming fundraising advantage this time, I’d call this race a pure tossup.