House District 35: Rep. Chris Malone (R) vs. Brian Mountcastle (D)
House District 35 is based in northeastern Wake County. It encompasses the towns of Zebulon, Wendell, part of Knightdale, and Wake Forest. Even a decade ago this was a very rural part of the county, but subdivisions have sprout up since then and development is fierce, particularly in Wake Forest. Today, it’s a mix of rural and suburban territory.
Currently, it is occupied by Republican Chris Malone, who prior to his service on the legislature was a member of the Wake County School Board. Malone’s victory here, against a Democrat who had also served on the school board, was incredibly narrow. In the end, Malone won by less than 51%.
The legislature has gotten more unpopular since then, and voters in Wake County pay more attention to what’s going on in the General Assembly than anyone else. So one would be forgiven for thinking that this is a key swing district, with the incumbent facing a tough reelection battle. But that’s not the case. In fact, this district is one of the few in Wake County where Republicans are likely to improve on their margin of victory from 2012.
Why? It has more to do with what happened in 2012 than what’s going on this year. This is actually a pretty strong Republican district by Wake County standards and Malone’s margin of victory two years ago was artificially lowered because of a late-breaking controversy involving the Wake County School Board. Some pundits predicted that Millberg would “steal” this district from Republicans, but that did not materialize. In the end, the district proved to be too conservative, and voters too unwilling to punish Malone, for Millberg to pull off the win. It did, however, make the Malone camp very nervous on Election Night. With the passage of time, voters have moved on and subsequent campaigns for Malone shouldn’t be as difficult.
The Republican candidate, Rep. Chris Malone.
The Democratic candidate, businessman Brian Mountcastle.
Therefore, it’s best not to take too much stock in the misleading election results from 2012. More telling is the Republican registration advantage and a likely enthusiasm gap which will benefit the GOP. That hasn’t stopped Democrats from trying, though. They’ve recruited Brian Mountcastle, a 36-year-old businessman from Knightdale, to challenge Malone. Mountcastle describes himself as “middle of the road” and someone who wants to offer new leadership for Raleigh. In particular, he’s concerned about the GOP’s agenda when it comes to public education. But after some initial buzz, this race has seemingly fallen off the radar. Most observers don’t include it in their lists of the most competitive districts. In part that’s due to Mountcastle’s low money haul – just over $3,000 as of the last reporting quarter. Malone had over $52,000.
Mountcastle is expected to be aided with mailers by the Wake County Democratic Party, through the campaign machine of Democratic Senator Kay Hagan. He’ll need more than that if he wants to win. For his part, Malone isn’t taking any chances, running an aggressive campaign, going door-to-door, and talking to voters. As a former school board member, Malone hopes to convey to voters his understanding of education issues and the GOP’s plan to improve public schools. The teacher pay raise on behalf of the legislature is a key plank of his campaign.
Still, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what’s going to happen in November. Republican wave, huge Democratic backlash at the state legislature, or something in between? We don’t know, and if there is a “blue backlash”, Malone might be particularly vulnerable to it, given his small margin of victory in 2012. Therefore, I’m pegging this at “Leans Republican”, even though I would be very surprised if Malone goes down.
Counties in district: Wake (part)
District Rating: Leans Republican
2012 Result
50.8% Malone (R)
49.2% Millberg (D)
Voter Registration
36.4% Republican
35.0% Democrat
28.3% Unaffiliated
74.5% White
17.1% Black
8.4% Other
Results in Other Elections
2012 President
54.5% Romney
44.4% Obama
2012 Governor
59.2% McCrory
38.4% Dalton
2010 Senate
59.0% Burr
38.7% Marshall
2008 Senate
49.5% Dole
47.6% Hagan
Social Media Support
Chris Malone – 2,299
Brian Mountcastle – 45
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
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