HD-92: Defying the Odds, Jeter the Favorite for Reelection

by | Oct 24, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Democrats, Features, NC House Races, NC Politics, NCGA | 1 comment

HD-92: Rep. Charles Jeter (R) vs. Robin Bradford (D)

charles jeterThe 92nd House District, based in western Mecklenburg County, borders the Catawba River and extends from the town of Huntersville down to Lake Wylie. In 2012, it was one of the most competitive districts in the state. Republican Charles Jeter and Democrat Robin Bradford exchanged leads several times throughout the night. In the end, Jeter won by 3 points, boosted by a cash advantage and the incredible popularity of gubernatorial Pat McCrory in his home county.

A year later, the political environment had changed drastically. Having total control of the state government, Republicans embarked on a controversial legislative session and implemented a number of new laws, shifting the state to the right. The subsequent backlash was particularly strong in urban areas, of which District 92 is a part. McCrory, who won in a landslide in 2012, suddenly had numbers looking like Bev Perdue’s. Even Republicans in safe districts were beginning to look vulnerable. A Democratic wave looked ready to break in 2014, and with Jeter’s bare 3-point win in 2012, the incumbent Republican seemed like he would be one of the first to get washed away. Not to mention that Jeter is one of only two House Republicans representing a district carried by Barack Obama in 2012 – an indication that, even in a neutral year, this seat should tilt toward a Democrat.

Map of NC House District 92 (colored in black).

Map of NC House District 92 (colored in black).

And yet, despite all that, Jeter looks like the strong favorite for reelection. This is even more incredible when one considers that he’s facing the same foe from his race in 2012, Robin Bradford. After losing by only 3 points in 2012, when the state legislature wasn’t nearly as popular, Bradford should be, at the very least, even odds to take out the challenger. Key word: should. Bradford, while never a particularly strong candidate, is an even weaker candidate this year for a number of reasons. Mostly, it stems from her having to pay a nearly $2,000 fine to the State Board of Elections because her 2012 campaign missed several campaign finance reporting deadlines. Bradford has blamed her treasurer for the missing information, while her former treasurer has accused Bradford of not being honest in providing all of the relevant details necessary to file complete reports. It’s not the kind of story a campaign in a competitive district wants in the news.

Robin Bradford, former Chair of the Mecklenburg Democratic Party, Democratic nominee for NC House District 92 this year and also in 2012

Robin Bradford, former Chair of the Mecklenburg Democratic Party, Democratic nominee for NC House District 92 this year and also in 2012

Bradford’s problems have also harmed her fundraising; as of July her campaign had only $260 cash on hand, compared to Jeter’s $36,375. Jeter can’t rest easy, though: this district is too naturally competitive for any candidate to coast to reelection, and Bradford will make it at least somewhat close, even though for all intents and purposes she’ll just be a name on the ballot with a (D) next to it. Jeter is up with ads showcasing his work on public education, on the environment, and on transportation, and the Republican touts the number of bills he’s sponsored. Bradford hasn’t been able to respond, meaning that Jeter has essentially controlled the entire message of the campaign. Bradford’s platform is the standard platform for all Democrats running at the legislative level in NC this year: Republicans are doing damage to the education system and are pushing a right-wing agenda out of touch with the state’s citizens. But with her campaign lacking money, that message is going unheard.

To win, Bradford is going to need strong African American turnout and a huge get-out-the-vote campaign from the top of the ticket. She’s going to need the “legislative backlash” theory to come to fruition. There’s still a very slight possibility of that happening, so I’m putting this at “Likely Republican”. The bottom line is that Jeter shouldn’t be favored to win here at all, but by facing a weak candidate with no money he’s been able to completely control the message and convince the Republican-wary voters of District 92 that while they may not like the legislature, their legislator Jeter is doing a good job and deserves reelection. With no one saying anything to the contrary, voters are very likely to grant it to him.

Jeter, 41, is a business executive who has started six companies. Currently, he is President of Intermodal FCL Inc., a trucking and logistics company. Before his election to the House, he served three terms as a Huntersville Town Commissioner. He is married and has three children.

Bradford, 51 is a Democratic activist who served as Chair of the Mecklenburg County Democratic Party until her resignation earlier this summer. Before her losing campaign for State House in 2012, she was a candidate for the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Board of Education in School District 1. She has worked on campaigns for almost 40 years, since 1978. She is married with two children.

Counties in district: Mecklenburg (part)

District Rating: Likely Republican

2012 Result
51.40% Jeter (R)
48.60% Bradford (D)

Voter Registration
37.5% Democratic
34.0% Republican
28.4% Unaffiliated

69.7% White
21.4% Black
8.9% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
52.6% Obama
46.4% Romney

2012 Governor
58.0% McCrory
40.2% Dalton

2010 Senate
54.1% Burr
44.0% Marshall

2008 Senate
53.7% Hagan
43.0% Dole

Social Media Support
Rep. Charles Jeter – 2,294
Robin Bradford – 337

1 Comment

  1. Tom

    Puzzled by suggestion that Gov. McCrory was incredibly popular in his home county. He carried it by less than one per cent of the vote (he lost the city of Charlotte where he had been mayor by a large vote – indeed he failed to carry a single major city in the state) and actually lost the county in his earlier try for the governorship – by less than 400 votes but he did lose it. Perhaps incredible is a relative term.

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