Former Congressman and quarterback Heath Shuler emerged as a potential US Senate candidate to challenge Richard Burr yesterday. Shuler represented the 11th Congressional District in western North Carolina until GOP gerrymandering made the district virtually impossible for Democrats. The news seemed more like a trial balloon than any sort of announcement.
Shuler is an interesting possibility. To win, he would have to expand his formula for winning the 11th District to the whole state. When Shuler first ran in 2006, Democrats had been frustrated that Republican Charles Taylor had held the seat for 16 years in what many analysts considered a swing district.
Back then, the Eleventh District contained all of liberal Asheville and all of the more conservative counties west of there. Democrats had little luck with candidates based out of Asheville. They were just too liberal for most of the more rural counties.
Shuler, though, was from tiny Swain County and a local hero who had been a Heisman finalist at the University of Tennessee. In addition to star power, he brought conservative values to the race. An evangelical Christian, he was pro-life and pro-gun, cultural values that played well in the district.
Liberal voters in Asheville were never happy with Shuler but their alternative was an even more conservative Charles Taylor. Shuler won in the 2006 wave and held onto the seat until redistricting split Asheville in 2012, killing his liberal base.
The theory behind a Shuler for Senate candidacy would be similar to his Congressional strategy. Shuler would pick up conservative independents in rural and suburban areas. Liberals in the Triangle and along the I-85 corridor as well as Asheville, would reluctantly support him over Richard Burr. It could work but the equation is not quite the same.
First, the rules have changed. When he was running for Congress, the state had straight party voting. Republicans eliminated that. Democrats not happy with Shuler could easily leave his slot blank. And a lot of Democrats won’t be happy. His pro-life stance will anger a lot of women, especially in the Triangle. His record on gay rights could also alienate gay voters and their supporters, though he may have evolved on the issue like a lot of Democrats. Shuler would also need to make inroads into the African-American community since he’s from the least diverse region of the state.
A lot of the money for campaigns comes from ideological donors in urban areas. Deep-pocketed donors in more liberal parts of the state might have supported him in a congressional district where they saw no other choice but they’re not guaranteed to support a statewide campaign, especially before a primary.
And he will almost certainly face a primary challenge, even if it’s not well funded. His pro-life, anti-gay marriage views will draw somebody into the race. Even a second-tier candidate who is pro-choice and pro-equality could hurt Shuler’s fundraising in-state before the primary next May.
Finally, Shuler has been a lobbyist for Duke Energy. It not only hurts his support with environmentalists, it muddies the water for Democrats and allied groups who routinely bash Pat McCrory for being in the pocket of his former employer. For Duke, though, it would be a huge win, if only to take the power giant out of the crosshairs of political ads.
For Democrats looking for a progressive champion to challenge Burr, a Shuler candidacy would be lacking. However, the former Congressman could divide and conquer conservative independents who aren’t especially enamored of Burr. A victory would depend on big numbers from urban liberals and African-Americans, though. For that, he would need the coattails of either Hillary Clinton or Roy Cooper, neither of which is guaranteed.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
None of the candidate put before me have inspired me. As a college student I spend 10 hours a week registering voters and encouraging my friends to vote and for what? Main Street Democrats/Blue Dog Dems like Heath Shuler? I don’t think so. It is extremely difficult for a woman to beat a male incumbent, that is political fact. Elaine Marshall and Grimmes are some recent examples. We need a real Democrat because the Supreme Court is controlled by Republicans. We need a REAL Democrat to run for this seat and win.
Talk of Duane Hall, Heath Shuler and Deborah Ross gives me painful gas, it’s absolutely terrible. There is talk of Dan Blue and Chris Rey and I honestly believe Rey would be the most formidable. Will NCDP and DSCC support him? Time will tell but I for one will not sweat or donate time, money and effort for Hall, Shuler or Ross when I could help NC House candidates in Guilford, Mecklenburg and Wake county as well as Roy Cooper and Linda Coleman.
These elections are so much bigger than the US Senate, Democrats must ensure we control the Council of State here in North Carolina which includes Governor (Roy Cooper), Lt. Governor (Londa Coleman), Secretary of Treasury (Janet Cowell), State Auditor (Beth Wood), Insurance Commissioner (Wayne Goodwin), Attorney General (Josh Stein), Supertintendent of Public Instruction (June Atkinson), Secretary of State (Elaine Marshall), and we need formidable candidates to match Cherie Berry and Steve Troxler.
Lol back to US Senate:
I honestly believe we need a candidate who can literally and figuratively bring out the masses and rally the Democratic base and her emerging membership: Latinos, African-Americans, educators and LGBT. Heath cannot be trusted to deal with decriminalization, the Secondary Education Act, rewriting The Civil Rights Act, or a Supreme Court nominee. #Rey2016 #RunReyRun
How about life-long Democrat, superior court justice, president of two prestigious universities and a wonderful person–Tom Ross.
No, no, and hell no!
I’d rather have a “Republican-lite” Shuler than a “rank and file” Republican Burr… even conservative Democrats are farther to the left than moderate Republicans…
I am late to this discussion, but based on life long experience, I would not vote for him. He would not be a reliable Democrat in the US Senate, so taking back the Senate (if even possible) would end up being an empty, temporary victory. And, he might be there a long time. As for supporting appropriate Supreme Court candidates, I suspect that is a pipe dream. In this state, there must be someone better, and if not, I have to ask where has the Democrat Party been for the past few years? They can’t blame all of this on gerrymandering. Every candidate does not have to come from already elected public officials. Keep looking and please step back and look outside the usual line up.
I’m with the ladies on this. Just Say No to more Duke lobbyists. We have enough in the governor’s mansion.
No more Blue Dogs…and certainly no more Duke employees….NO, NO, NO….
Sure …its late so lets settle for a republican lite…makes sense to me.
Meh. Doesn’t set my world on fire, but then again time is running out and nobody else seems to be interested. What realistic alternatives are there?
Enough to make a maggot barf. I remember asking him when he first ran if he was a Blue Dog. The man had to ask his handler what that was, and yes, he was one for sure. Perhaps this is some Clintonian clap trap, trying to resurrect the damned DLC and slide everything further right. There is no reason anyone who is a “real Democrat” should go for Shuler. He is a Republican!
I am from what was the 11th district and worked hard to get Shuler elected the first time. He is arrogant and a very poor politician, and I would not vote for him again. He use to say that Bill Clinton talked him into running the first time and I wonder if that isn’t the case again.
Progressives can forgive him for being pro-life because we know we can’t win if we focus on divisive social issues. However, we can’t tolerate lobbying for Duke Energy Regress. Coal ash pollution will affect our quality of life for many years to come.
State party insiders know of another leader planning to challenge Burr who is a talented speaker with an inspiring story, a leader who will leverage the power of current events and the media to further mobilize the base.
I would hope that his stance on environmental issues evolves to the where he can be compatible with the base. Either way there is definitely room for a more progressive Democrat in the race, but where are they? Until this inspiring mystery candidate emerges I’ll take a 3 term congressman and former professional athlete who is sure to get the attention of the DSCC. 2016 is a great opportunity to replace a non-entity like Burr and I for one won’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
yessiree…a Duke lobbyist will evolve sorta like our troll Duke gov and add that to winning 3 terms in the House where he consistently voted against a sitting Democratic president ..and being football jock ..I am sold.
Control of the U.S. Senate in 2016 is going to be very close. Demanding ideological purity is self-defeating. While Schuler might not be the most inspiring choice, consider how many supreme court justices are near mortality or retirement before saying there is no difference between he and Burr. I have no problem with moving the ideological center into the Democratic caucus if it yields a majority.
What good will that majority be if Shuler votes with the Republicans as he has done before?
The good in the majority is that Democrats will have control of the committees meaning climate change denier Jim Inhofe would no longer be chair of the Environment and Public Works committee, Pat Leahy will be chair of the Judiciary instead of Charles Grassley, etc.
Again I am not advocating that Shuler be the nominee, just that there are reasons not to oppose him if he were to be.
Of course you aren’t…just three times.
I understand how reluctant you are to support Shuler but also understand the deeper reasoning you are justifying it by, unlike your knee-jerk detractor. And agree, but then again, I’m biased. Just the thought of Burr not getting a strong challenge makes me sick. And Shuler is a credible challenger, the first of any I’ve seen mentioned. Of course, that credibility comes into play in the general election, as a primary candidate, I concede he has little chance.
I seriously doubt the control of the US Senate will be decided in North Carolina.if I am expected to vote Democratic I want to vote for a Democrat and holding the majority of the Senate or the Supreme Court as a reason to vote for Shuler …well that dog just want hunt.
Jeez! Heath Shuler? Give us a choice, not an echo!
Here is the issue with Shuler: Yes, his policies are far more in line with Senator Burr’s and those of the Republican Party rather than mainstream Democratic ideology. But the bigger issue is if Shuler is the nominee, he’s going to draw away NC Dem money and time resources from other races in the state, specifically Cooper for Governor.
I don’t want to spend time and money canvassing for a “Democrat” who essentially is identical to Richard Burr, only for Roy Cooper, a true, viable opportunity to knock McCrory out of Raleigh, to suffer.
Hell no to Shuler. Burr’s record on things like gay rights and healthcare is better than Shuler’s.
This life-long Democrat would vote for Burr over Shuler any day.
In a few words…hell no! Shuler voted against ACA along with other important DEMOCRAT legislation. We have Manchin in the Senate we certainly do not need to send them Shuler. We need a candidate who will vote for Democratic values. Progressive or not. Shuler is well suited for his current gig as a lobbyist and he should stay put. Are we that desperate for someone to take on Burr that we have to even consider Shuler.? Whats the difference at least Burr has seniority and rank.
One reason he voted against some Democratic legislation, such as the ACA was that he was representing a conservative district. Having a to represent a state wide constituency would probably result in a different voting record. I’m not saying he is by any means an ideal choice for Democrats to run against Burr but that he should not be dismissed out of hand, particularly when even one Senate seat could determine who controls the Senate.
Shuler didn’t vote for the Democratic nominee to control the House!
Why would we expect him to vote for Democrats to control the Senate?
Shuler even fails the pathetic “vote for any Democrat to control the Senate” test.
He’s more likely to vote for the Democratic leader in the Senate then Richard Burr is. But once again he would be representing a state wide constituency in the Senate, not just one conservative House district. He did vote for Nancy Pelosi to be speaker twice which is more than Burr ever did when he was in the House.
Again I am not advocating Shuler be the nominee, just pointing out that things are not as simple as they may appear.
Of course you are advocating Shuler..twice. But you are wrong…twice.
blue-dogs lost big time in 2014. We need candidates and electeds committed to fixing economic inequality. Sorry but I don’t see Shuler being very involved in that. He would ride coat-tails of an HRC and a Roy Cooper, but if HRC wasn’t on the ballot Shuler wouldn’t be able to run on Roy’s coat-tails.
He may not be “committed to fixing economic inequality” but if he helps Democrats regain control of the Senate he will empower many who are such as Elizabeth Warren by giving them the platform (such as committee chairs) that come with that majority.
Having said that I doubt he would be the best candidate to challenge Burr although given how small the Democratic field is the options seem pretty limited so for that alone I’m willing to give him a hearing.
Sounds like he’d lose a primary.