High Republican Turnout isn’t Going Away Just Because Trump’s Off the Ballot

by | Nov 23, 2021 | Politics | 13 comments

Behavioral economists have long recognized a cognitive bias known as “loss aversion.” For example, when asked to estimate the price of a coffee mug someone else has, people will offer figures significantly lower than if they are asked to price a mug that is in their possession. People respond more forcefully to what they may lose than to what they may gain, even if the value of what they could add to their well being equates to the cost of losing something. They’ll fight for what they have.

This tendency is on full display in the world of Republican politics. Across red America, Trump voters are fervently grasping for the privileges of race and creed that they long believed were a given for white Christian Americans. They’re responding to challenges to their status that have materialized since 2008, just like earlier generations of GOP voters swarmed to George Wallace and Richard Nixon out of reaction against the social revolutions of the Sixties. That explains the high Republican turnout in Virginia last month.

To understand the intensity of their motivation, it helps to assume the mindset of a Republican base voter. The overwhelming majority of GOP primary voters are white and evangleical; most of them are middle aged or older, and a disproportionate number are rural. The last 20 years have been a cultural disaster for white rural evangelicals. Since the peak of religiously conservative influence with the election of George W. Bush, same-sex marriage has become law, trans people have made significant gains in visibility, organized religion has diminished across the board, attitudes toward premarital sex and cursing have continued to liberalize, and a Black man has held the presidency of the United States. From a position of secure hegemony, white evangelicals have fallen into a minority position in our culture.

And the evangelical core of the Republican Party simply cannot accept being a patch in the country’s multicultural quilt. In white evangelical circles, the conviction that America belongs to them holds enormous power. Partly this is because of the insularity of their communities. Many evangelicals have never encountered people who don’t share their worldview or life experiences–and that makes the cosmopolitan images they see in the media seem like a monstrous Other. But the more important factor driving the evangelical faith that America is theirs is a kind of Jacksonian nationalism. “Real” Americans are white, Christian, provincial, and employed in making things. Any other type of person who happens to inhabit the country is at best a guess in the Jacksonian household.

So, seeing their perceived ownership of the country slip away, Republican base voters have thrown themselves wholesale into the arena of political combat. Increasingly, they are opting for bullying, authoritarian politicians like Donald Trump and Madison Cawthorn, through whom they experience the vicarious satisfaction of seeing Democrats smack down. With these men leading them and Fox News tending to the fires of grievance, Republican base voters can be expected to come to the polls in heavy numbers for the foreseeable future. Fasten your seat belts.

13 Comments

  1. phoenix

    And here, once again, prominently displayed for all to see is EXACTLY why the left is losing and will continue to lose. And why Americans simply don’t buy anything they espouse or the future it brings.

    When the left learns to be Americans again maybe they will have a chance. Until then good riddance.

    • cocodog

      So, what you accept as true is the notion those who do not believe as you, (the left, as you choose to label them) are not real Americans. Enlighten us, as to what you perceive to be the “real Americans”. Try to be logical and to the point.

      • Phoenix

        All you have to do is listen to them. Everything the espouse is hatred for anything that made the country what it is, and what it can be.

        I can’t explain what a real American is, but ironically listen to Pelosi AOC , the squad Hillary etc. and the disdain they have for “flyover country and everyone wholived there, (Actual hatred to be honest) and of course this article. you can easily see what an American isn’t.

        • cocodog

          I suspect asking you to be logical and to the point was a bridge to far. The only flyover for you pal is a Cuckoo’s Nest. Nothing you say makes much sense. Moreover, “them” are not out to get you.

          • phoenix

            The same can be said of you. How do I know I am winning the argument. You hurl insults.
            Its all you have.

          • cocodog

            Perhaps, I should rephrase the question. Some of the Jan 6 insurrectionist have had their day in court and testified that in their mind they were carrying out the will of the former president (Trump) or words to that affect. Do you classify these folks as real Americans? Do these folks fit your criteria?

  2. cocodog

    The chant from those who marched in Charlottesville Va. was “you will not replace us”. This slogan has become associated with folks who believe that “real Americans” primarily folks described in your article (white, Christian, and provincial) are losing their place in our country to non-white, non-Christian and moreover are not the same as the folks who founded this country.
    The slogan is thought to be based on the writing of a French author Renaud Camus. In his book “The Great Replacement” he claims that a global elite is colluding against the white population of Europe to replace them with non-European peoples. Of course, his book addresses a phenomenon he believes is taking place in Europe, not the United States. But it is convenient for those who foster hate and disunity to adopt. Moreover, is in direct conflict with the notion that all men are created equal and endowed by their creator with certain inalienable rights.
    Some Republicans believe this concept has political value and incorporated it into their efforts to drive those who find it appealing to the polls. And for the most part it appears to be working. At least for now!

  3. Jennifer Bremer

    And we have to counter that with registration, mobilization, and education. Otherwise, we lose.

  4. Mike Leonard

    In the 1980s I was on active duty in the Navy, living in Virginia Beach. A few blocks away was a gigantic “mega-church” called ‘The Rock’ which must have been home to hundreds of white evangelicals. Way back then I didn’t understand their worldview, but these days I sure do.

  5. Donna Hammond

    Well said

  6. Susana Dancy

    This is one of the more condescending articles I’ve seen on this topic. What a shame for a website that typically offers stellar insight and analysis.

    • Henry Cecil Thomas

      You’r.e entitiled to your opinion, but that is the problem, you don’t think other should have an opinion in contrast to your ..Ithink they’re just a bunch of whiney,mean self centered people that wantts to control everybody and everything and that;s going to happen in this country anymore, your get use to it;.

  7. Jim Bartow

    You exactly nailed it with the post.

Related Posts

GET UPDATES

Get the latest posts from PoliticsNC delivered right to your inbox!

You have Successfully Subscribed!