Based on a draft opinion leaked to Politico, the United States Supreme Court appears likely to overturn Roe v. Wade by the end of the year. That decision would rocket abortion to the top of the issues motivating American voters. Women would lose rights in half the country, in many cases automatically once the Supreme Court’s decision activates latent provisions in state laws providing for an immediate ban on abortion in the event that the Court overturns Roe. Evangelical Christians would see their fifty-year foray into partisan politics culminate in a sweet victory, while pro-choice activists–particularly those fighting heroically in red states–would suffer a devastating blow.

I’m interested in how Roe will play out in North Carolina. Without a doubt, North Carolina Republicans have already devised a sub rosa plan to legally ban abortion at the first opportunity. Their preparations probably resemble the approach that top GOP legislators took regarding voter suppression, when Senate Rules Chair Tom Apodaca exulted upon the announcement of Shelby County v. Holder that “now we can move forward with the full bill.” Republican legislators will probably blast an abortion ban through both houses of the legislature and make Governor Cooper veto it, triggering their base’s well honed instincts for demonology. It will not be unlike the approach they took with the absurd “born-alive” bill–except this time with far higher stakes.

The response we see from North Carolina voters will be multifaceted. Historically, North Carolinians, like most Americans, have had an ambivalent disposition towards the abortion issue. Roe v. Wade helped Jesse Helms to turn eastern North Carolina Democrats into Republican Jessecrats. Throughout his career, he stood as the most adamant anti-choice Senator in the country. But his political team gravely feared the abortion issue, because while his extreme stance resonated with the GOP’s new base voters, nearly every poll showed that North Carolinians as a whole did not favor a complete ban on abortion. When Harvey Gantt attacked Helms for his anti-abortion extremism, polls moved strongly in Gantt’s direction. Gantt only lost momentum with a gaffe related to sex-selective abortion.

More recently, abortion was a continual political headache for failed Governor Pat McCrory. McCrory’s numbers first flipped underwater when he signed the infamous “Motorcycle Abortion Law.” After violating his promise not to curtail abortion rights, his support for sweeping abortion restrictions insultingly deployed caused his numbers to flip from slightly positive to 10 points underwater. He bumbled along, breaking his promise again and again, until he finally went down to ignominious defeat. It couldn’t have happened to a worse governor.

Today, polling continues to show North Carolina voters standing well to the left of other Southerners on abortion. In 2020, exit polls found that 59% of Mississippians wanted abortion to become illegal in all or most cases. By contrast, a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for the research group Carolina Forward (to which I contribute policy analysis) found that only 41% of North Carolinians favor a ban in abortion in all or more cases. A plurality of North Carolinians support continued legality of and broad access to abortion care.

Individual political actors may play a key role here. For example, Democrats have made a fortuitous choice by supporting a prominent woman to lead the statewide ticket. As the first Black woman chief justice of the state Supreme Court and being well versed in constitutional law, Cheri Beasley is almost the ideal candidate for an abortion-centric election. Meanwhile, the Republicans will probably nominate a man in Ted Budd who fairly reeks of toxic masculinity. The contrast will not be lost on North Carolina’s pro-choice plurality. As always, turnout will do much to determine the outcome in this extremely polarized state. The Trumpified Supreme Court may have just waved the turnout magic wand once again, but will pro-choice women respond in turn? That is the question.