Idle Musings on Kavanaugh and the Senate

by | Oct 6, 2018 | Features, The Kovach Corner | 3 comments

After a tumultuous few weeks, the United States Senate confirmed Brett Kavanaugh to his lifetime appointment as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court.

Liberal groups have lamented his nomination from the beginning, and although vigorous in their protestations, his success was all but guaranteed upon his nomination. Susan Collins, widely considered the swing vote in his road to confirmation, had apparently telegraphed to the White House from the beginning that she intended to vote for Kavanaugh. In her near-hourlong speech Friday, it was obvious from the beginning that she would vote in the affirmative. The crux of her argument emphasized the presumption of innocence and, ultimately, how in her opinion the case against the judge fell short.

As I wrote earlier, without more evidence or substantiated allegations, I figured that the nomination would carry on. The largest unknown that I addressed in that column was the effect that Kavanaugh might have on midterm elections. Though the appointment is for life, we will feel the political repercussions in just one month. Polls indicate that the backlash to the “smear campaign” against Kavanaugh lit a fire under conservative voters. The possibility of losing a generation of conservative dominance in the highest court excited them as nothing else could. Indeed, this is one place where President Trump is able to corral the often disparate actions of the Republican Party; irrespective of their differences on issues of trade, immigration or temperament in general, conservatives understand and value the ramifications of a conservative majority in the Supreme Court. Democrats would be wise to mimic their determination.

In fact, had Democrats taken seriously the threat of a Trump presidency, they would have turned out in droves during the fall of 2016 to secure Merrick Garland’s appointment to the Court. Alas, that time is past. Moving forward, though, the Kavanaugh confirmation should actually be a boon for Democrats.

Polls in recent weeks, as I mentioned, have shown a renewed vigor in the conservative base. Fearing his confirmation was in jeopardy, Republican voters were ready to flock to the polls to protect their majorities. Now, we have to wait and see how the polls change since his ascension to the Court. As many have speculated, the Republican victory in confirming him may cause their gains in enthusiasm to dissipate. For Democrats, the opposite is true. Democratic energy seems to have waned somewhat from its peak in the summer, but anger over the loss of another Supreme Court seat could be the needed impetus for November gains.

I could be wrong, but retaking the Senate this year looks like a fool’s errand. Despite his impressive campaign, Beto O’Rourke will likely fall short by a few points. That’s no small feat in Texas, of course, but the state just isn’t ready to turn purple. Continued demographic shifts could make it competitive in the future, but not in 2018. Similarly, Georgia looks like it could be moving toward a competitive status in the near future, but this year it isn’t. Democrats would do better in shoring up seats they already hold, without becoming too ambitious. Missouri and New Jersey, of all places, are tight races for Democrats. They should focus more on maintaining the seats they have now than pouring money into bank-shots like Texas and Tennessee. Granted, you can’t win if you don’t compete, but I fear Beto will become another Jon Ossoff: an attractive candidate that receives an inordinate amount of money that could’ve been used elsewhere.

3 Comments

  1. Faris Harton

    Any thoughts on the NC 7th US Congressional District where Dr. Kyle Horton is running against David Rouzer?

  2. Rick Gunter

    This is one of the saddest days I can recall for my country in recent years. It is not as sad a day for me as the day Mr. Trump and the Russians won the 2016 U.S. presidential election, but it is very sad indeed. The story on now Justice Kavanaugh is far from over. He did not encounter a smear campaign. He encoountered highly credible allegations of sexual assault, of lying under oath, of deception, plus his display for the world to see of a judicial candidate without the requisite temperament to be a member of the U.S. Supreme Court. Those who enabled him to reach this pinnacle will face the judgment of history. At 74, I won’t live to see that accounting. But I hope it is as exacting as I believe it will be. Donald Trump should never have been allowed to nominate any candidate for the high court. For crying out loud, he is under a counter-intelligence investigation. That accounting is coming. You can bet the next house payment that the Republicans will view Mr. Mueller’s report just as they viewed the credible allegations of Dr. Chriostine Ford. They will belittle it. But the truth has a way of emerging. It will emerge still yet against the new juistice. It ultimately will emerge regarding a U.S. president who should be in prison rather than in the Oval Office. We already know the truth about McConnell and his gang of fools in the U.S. Senate. They sold out their institution and the Supreme Court for political power. They do not reflect our country. Like those senators, I am an old white man. But unlike senators McConnell, Hatch, Grassley and their colleagues, I view my country as more than what it was before the New Deal. They want to take it back to that era. The decent people in this country must fight back, beginning Nov. 6.

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