The filing period is now officially over. First, a look at who filed for U.S. Congress. Some takeaways:
*In good news for Democrats, they got a candidate in every U.S. House district (including Thomas Mills in the Eighth). While 10 of the districts are lopsidedly Republican, just having a name on the ballot helps – it prevents incumbent GOPers from running unopposed and racking up huge margins for their party. That means the total popular vote for Congress throughout the state will be less Republican than it would otherwise, helping Democrats further the narrative that the current district lines do not legitimately represent the views of North Carolinians.
*On a related note, Republicans goofed by being unable to field a challenger to G.K. Butterfield in the First. They wouldn’t stand a chance anyway, but by not recruiting anyone they’re helping Democrats increase their margin in the statewide popular vote.
*The Second District comprises Central North Carolina but the Democratic nominee, wedding photographer Adam Coker, lives in Boone.
*There are “only” five Republicans running in the Second District GOP primary. There had been rumors that more might jump in, including former Transportation Secretary Tony Tata.
*Josh Brannon, Democratic nominee in the 5th in 2014, is challenging Foxx once again. Foxx won 61%-39% last time around.
*Candidates for the 6th congressional district are so numerous that one would think it’s an open seat. It’s not – and Rep. Mark Walker is immensely favored to win reelection, both in the primary and in the general.
*Rep. David Rouzer in the 7th was sitting pretty, with no Democratic or Republican opponents, until the last day of filing, when he got one from each party: former NC GOP official Mark Otto, and J. Wesley Casteen, Democrat. Casteen ran as a Libertarian against Rouzer last year but switched parties to run as a Democrat this time around.
*PoliticsNC editor-in-chief Thomas Mills was the last person to file at the State Board and he did so against Rep. Richard Hudson in the Eighth. If you’re a regular reader of this blog, staying up-to-date on this particular race should be easy.
*Rep. Robert Pittenger was unopposed last year. This time, he’s facing fellow Republican George Rouco in the primary, as well as businessman and LGBT activist Christian Cano in the general. Pittenger’s district, the Ninth, is the fastest-growing in the state.
Bottom line: in any race, recruiting a top-tier candidate is key. But barring that, filling the ballot is the way to go. As can be seen by the number of candidates who filed for Congress, neither anti-establishment Republicans nor Democrats are giving incumbents a pass. Even if they don’t win, they’ll at least have stepped forward and made our politicians earn their time in Washington, and that’s a good thing.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
David Hurst NC3CD. Just waiting for the Republican primary. Walter Jones, Sarah Palin and Phil Law in a no holds barred cage match. Should be fun to watch. Filling in for Sarah will be Taylor Griffin selling the 3rd District to Hamilton Place Strategies.
Merry Christmas.
With hotly contested races for President, Governor, Senator and all major state elective offices, Democrat turnout should be maximized in 2016. Conventional wisdom that token Democrat opposition in heavily Republican Congressional districts in NC will substantially increase Democrat turnout is wishful thinking.
More likely, challenging GOP incumbents in “safe” districts could boost Republican turnout. Libertarians and disaffected conservatives turned off by the by the top of the GOP ticket could be motivated to come out to vote for a conservative representative with a Democrat opponent. Conversely, moderate Republicans who won’t support a Conservative Presidential candidate could come out to vote if their local GOP Congressman faces Democrat opposition.
In short, if Democrats can’t maximize their voter turnout in next year’s races for President, Governor, Senator et al, Democrat challengers in heavily Republican districts won’t be of much help increasing their turnout.
I do believe that a few districts will switch, but for a most surprising reason….angry Republicans will either stay home or split their tickets because they’ll view the loss of a seat for two years as addition by subtraction to get rid of a few unaccountable GOP congresspeople. For some of the people I’ve talked to, the Ryan budget was the last straw.
Rumination from a RINO???