In Crowded NC-06 Primary, Berger King

by | Apr 11, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Campaigns, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, National Politics, NC Politics, US House | 3 comments

North Carolina’s 6th Congressional District – Howard Coble (R)

North Carolina’s 6th congressional district is a funnel-shaped district centered around Guilford County. It includes a number of counties along the Virginia border, stretching from Granville County in the east all the way to Surry County in the mountains. It is presently represented by Republican Howard Coble, who announced his retirement a few months ago.

Although Coble has been in Congress since 1985, the newest iteration of the 6th district is substantially different than the one he represented for the vast majority of his tenure. This new district is much less Republican, with Democrats actually having a plurality in voter registration. But even in an open seat situation, Democrats shouldn’t get too hopeful, as Mitt Romney won the 6th district with 58% of the vote compared to Obama’s 41%. Therefore, most observers will be watching the Republican primary, as winning there is almost tantamount to election.

Republican primary
The Republican primary is quite crowded. This tends to be the case in open seats where an incumbent has served for a long time, in a district that favors a certain party (the mirror image to this is the 12th district). The candidates include:

Phil Berger Jr. (Rockingham County District Attorney, son of the NC Senate leader)
Kenn Kopf (lawyer)
Zack Matheny (Greensboro City Councilman)
Jeff Phillips (small business owner)
Charlie Sutherland (veteran)
Bruce VonCannon (banker, businessman)
Mark Walker (pastor)
Don Webb (financial adviser, former chairman of the High Point Republican Party)
Mike Causey (2012 GOP nominee for Commissioner of Insurance)

Berger Jr. is the clear leader in the primary. He has the name recognition, the money, and endorsements from various well-known conservatives. The question is whether or not he can win the primary outright by exceeding the 40% threshold. In such a crowded field, that’s a difficult task, although his campaign is working hard to do so. Yesterday, a poll was released showing Berger with a good chance of doing just that. But since the poll was conducted on behalf of Keep Conservatives United, an entity supporting Berger, its results should be taken with a grain of salt.

In the event of a runoff, who might emerge as the anti-Berger? It seems like Councilman Zack Matheny and businessman Bruce VonCannon are likely bets. But Matheny appears to be more of a moderate in a GOP hungry for hardcore conservatives, while VonCannon spent a career creating jobs in Hong Kong – a significant liability in a district which has seen many losses in the manufacturing industry. The threat of VonCannon, of course, is that he is a multimillionaire who would be able to write his campaign a check and compete with Berger on the money front. But his resume, his living outside of the district, and his still being a registered Democrat back in 2011 probably dooms his candidacy from the get-go. There’s also Pastor Mark Walker, who seems to have the best chance of emerging as the ‘Tea Party’ candidate.

If I had to make a prediction for this race – and given the dearth of information on it, that’s difficult to do – I would say Berger places first on May 6th, but will have to go into a runoff. Now, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will place second, but I’ll go out on a limb and say Mark Walker. In any case, Berger shouldn’t have much difficulty winning the nomination. What Berger’s opponents lack is a major reason why conservatives shouldn’t back Berger. Instead, the Rockingham District Attorney seems to be getting the best of both worlds – being embraced by the establishment while still receiving the enthusiastic support of the more conservative elements within the party.

Democratic Primary
This one will be decided on May 6th, as there are only two candidates. The first is Laura Fjeld, former general counsel to the UNC System. The second is Guilford County Commissioner Bruce Davis. Most observers expect Fjeld to win fairly easily. One reason why Fjeld is favored is her huge money advantage. Davis has raised peanuts in comparison. Davis’s base is in Greensboro, and his supporters will probably be disproportionately African American and from the Guilford County area.

General election
In an open seat situation, with a Democratic wave, this would be a competitive district. Unfortunately for Democrats, the political winds are blowing the other way. Fjeld is a strong candidate, and one reason for that is her being a woman. For some reason, women seem to be more adept at overcoming the “politician” image and appearing more genuine. Berger could also be hurt by his connection to his father, who leads a chamber of the unpopular General Assembly, but that will probably be a very minor factor. Expect a lot of noise in this contest, with some declaring it a “sleeper” race, but in the end Berger should win comfortably, probably high single digits. After that, Berger should be safe through the end of the decade, until the next redistricting cycle.

nc-06

Counties in district: Alamance (part), Caswell, Durham (part), Granville (part), Guilford (part), Orange (part), Person, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry

Primary Rating: Likely Berger
District Rating: Likely Republican

2012 Result
Howard Coble (R) – 60.9%
Tony Foriest (D) – 39.1%

Voter Registration
39.9% Democrat
35.4% Republican
24.4% Unaffiliated

80.2% White
15.2% Black
4.6% Other

Results in Other Elections

2012 President
57.7% Romney
41.3% Obama

2012 Governor
61.2% McCrory
36.5% Dalton

2010 Senate
62.0% Burr
35.7% Marshall

2008 Senate
48.5% Dole
48.3% Hagan

3 Comments

  1. Paleotek

    In keeping with tradition, I’ll throw down my prognostication. I’m going with Baby Berger in the primary with 36%, Baby Berger in the runoff with 64%, and Baby Berger in the general, with 56% (note, BB is underperforming in the district, because he is an odious candidate to a significant chunk of the electorate). Good luck, Laura!

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