No need for much of an introduction here. Democrats need four seats to turn over Republicans’ supermajority in the State House this year. They have a fair chance of doing so, but unlike the Senate they have a number of vulnerable House members they’ll need to protect. Without further ado, here’s my pick for the top ten seats most likely to see a change in party in the 2016 elections:
10. HD-22: William Brisson (D) Brisson, who represents a rural district in Eastern North Carolina, takes this spot for two reasons: one, he might retire. Two, there’s the chance that Republicans might pick up his seat anyway. The GOP should hope for a retirement here as they failed to knock him off in 2014 even though Brisson hardly campaigned. Not that it matters: the incumbent is the most conservative Democrat in the House, and might as well be a Republican for all intents and purposes. If Brisson retires, this seat moves up to the very top of GOP takeover opportunities.
9. HD-115: John Ager (D) The strongest opponent for Rep. Ager would no doubt be Rep. Nathan Ramsey, who Ager defeated for this Buncombe County-based district back in November. But even then, Ager would be the slight favorite. This is a swing district that went for President Obama back in 2012, but suburban moderates are not down with the GOP legislature, and it will be hard to convince them to replace a Democrat with another Republican. In addition, the district appears to be trending Democratic, and 2016 will be a presidential year. All of those factors makes this seat relatively low on the list of top pickup opportunities for Republicans.
8. HD-35: Chris Malone (R) The 35th House District makes this list because Malone is a potential retirement prospect (there have been rumors about him seeking statewide office.) Regardless, the district is fairly friendly GOP territory, but not entirely safe. In an open seat during a presidential year, things could get interesting – but Democrats need to recruit a strong candidate and to spend some money here.
7. HD-51: Brad Salmon (D) It’s impressive that a Democrat carries this seat considering that Mitt Romney carried the district with 57% back in 2012. But Salmon has proven to be an exceptionally strong candidate, a moderate who can appeal to the remaining conservative Democrats in this rural district which comprises parts of Harnett and Lee counties. If he seeks reelection, Salmon is favored. If not, then it’s likely because he wants to run for State Senate in District 12, which would be bad news for Senate Republicans and good news for their House counterparts, as no other Democrat is likely to run as strongly as Salmon for this seat.
6. HD-44: Rick Glazier (D) Glazier will be leaving soon to head up the NC Justice Center. He did his party a favor by not leaving before the 2014 elections – Thom Tillis carried this district and Republicans would have had a good shot at picking up an open seat in that GOP tide. Instead, they’ll probably have to go up against an appointed incumbent in an environment that will be much more friendly to Democrats. Given the demographics here, this district could be especially prone to a change in turnout dynamics.
5. HD-36: Nelson Dollar (R) One might be surprised to see Dollar on this list. While he’s a good fundraiser and occupies a powerful position in the State House, he represents a (sort-of) swing district in Wake County. He won by single-digits in both 2012 and 2014, years where he was opposed by the same underfunded challenger. In a presidential year with a strong opponent, things could get interesting here. And he already has an opponent – businessman Brian Tribble. The Democratic caucus will have to invest substantially here to be successful.
4. HD-116: Brian Turner (D) Rep. Brian Turner is on a short leash. The freshman Democrat was elected by a larger margin than his fellow Buncombe Democrat colleague, John Ager, yet Turner is much more vulnerable. The reason is because he occupies a district that, at least according to the numbers, should not be friendly to electing a Democrat. Turner won by defeating Tim Moffitt, a polarizing figure. Against a Republican with softer edges, Turner should find himself in a toss-up contest. To combat attacks from the right, Turner has joined the Main Street Democrats and his voting record is less liberal than one would expect from a Buncombe Democrat. Turner has a few things going for him, though: the district appears to be trending Democratic, and he’ll benefit from incumbency. But it’s still a Republican district and Turner will have to gird himself for a tough reelection campaign.
3. HD-49: Gary Pendleton (R) This district takes in some Inside the Beltline neighborhoods and snakes its way through North Raleigh. And it’s anyone’s guess how voters here will react to a House member seeking reelection. In this district full of swing voters, Pendleton appears to be doing a good job representing his voters’ interests. He’s a Republican but not someone who emphasizes social conservative issues and occasionally votes against his party’s agenda in the House. But if voters here are in a foul mood toward North Carolina Republicans, Pendleton could go down anyway. This district will fall down in ranking if Democrats fail to recruit a strong candidate.
2. HD-92: Charles Jeter (R) There’s no question. Charles Jeter is the most vulnerable Republican, not only in the State House, but in the entire legislature. It’s not because of anything Jeter’s done – he’s as close to a moderate Republican as there can be in the North Carolina legislature. But his district in western Mecklenburg County is changing out from under him, becoming less white and less open to Republicans. President Obama carried this district in both 2008 and 2012, and Kay Hagan won here by a high single-digit margin in 2014. Jeter running for reelection would no doubt be the GOP’s strongest chance of holding the seat, but even that looks dicey in a presidential year with high minority turnout.
1. HD-6: Paul Tine (I) Party-switchers have not fared well lately, in state or national races. But, once Tine became an Independent and announced he’d caucus with the GOP, his reelection strategy became pretty clear: vote a consistently conservative record in the House, seek the Republican Party’s nomination for the seat in 2016, and hope for the best. Instead, Tine has voted against almost every major plank of the GOP agenda. It will be tough to go before a conservative primary electorate with that sort of record – which kind of makes one wonder what the heck Tine’s plan is. When the dust settles, it’s unclear which party will hold this seat in 2017, but one thing is certain: Paul Tine has a tough road ahead of him.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Surprised HD-02 didn’t make the list, I assumed it was a swing district as it was in 2014.
One would think that Rep. Mark Brodie would be on this list. When you consider all the civil suits that have been filed against him in the last 10 years for not paying for materials and labor, in my opinion he apparently takes advantage of other businesses to enhance his bottom line. I think he must rank right up near the top with the other crooks in the NC Legislature.
Why wasn’t Michele Presnell, who retained her seat with only 689 votes, mentioned on this list ? Presnell won by a mere 51.4% of the vote.
Agreed. Presnell represents a blue leaning district (at least below the presidential level) and barely hung on in the Republican wave of 2014. She is certain to be a prime target of Democrats in 2016.
Absolutely. Even some Republicans were surprised she won.
Thanks, such a list for the lowly Counties would be a real service. I might be able to present one for Orange later in the week.
John John John…..really #8? You heard rumors, so you throw this in? won by 13 points in 14, every single precinct on election day! Let’s talk soon and I’ll show you some data from the District…you could have picked better man. “Most Likely” indeed….