Yesterday, Civitas released its monthly poll of North Carolina politics and it’s brutal for Republicans. It may just be an outlier but the numbers suggest a political environment that’s collapsing for the GOP. The issues on people’s minds favor progressives, Donald Trump’s numbers are sinking and the generic ballot heavily favors Democrats. The political environment has been very unstable but this poll indicates a wave may still be forming.
According to the poll, North Carolina voters believe the country and the state are heading in the wrong direction, a surprising number given the improving economy and voters’ relatively optimistic economic outlook (two-thirds think the economy is staying the same or getting better). The dissatisfaction seems to be more with the people governing. Trump is underwater by 11 points, with a majority holding an unfavorable opinion of him. Thom Tillis is also under water by 11 points, 26-37.
In contrast, voters like Governor Roy Cooper despite two contentious sessions of the General Assembly now under his belt. Fifty-one percent say they approve of Cooper himself, while only 34% disapprove. And by a 22 point margin they approve of the job he’s doing as governor. Cooper’s support can help legislative candidates across the state while Republican leaders might hurt them.
While the poll did not test the legislature, per se, Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot by five points. In addition, voters don’t like the way Republicans are handling education. It’s the most important issue to voters and they believe it’s underfunded and teachers aren’t paid enough. Given Civitas’ conservative bent, the poll fishes for support asking, “In North Carolina, per-pupil spending on public education totals more than $9,100. Do you feel that is sufficient amount of funding to properly educate children?” Still, 56% of respondents said that’s too little.
They also found support for teachers in general. Sixty-two percent of people believe teachers were justified closing school to attend a rally. A whopping 85% said they were aware of the rally. If education is the driving issue of the campaign, Democrats are well positioned to take advantage of it.
A lot could change between now and November, but, if this poll is not an outlier, the political environment is collapsing for Republicans. They don’t like or approve of the president. They think the most pressing issue, education, has not been handled correctly and, since the GOP controls the legislature, Republicans are easy to blame. The five point generic ballot is probably understated, because the undecided voters will likely vote against the party in power. This poll has the makings of a wave. We’ll see what next month looks like.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
If this trend continues, I predict that Republicans in the GA will move to close our state’s public colleges: voters are just getting too dad-gum smart to vote against their own interests. Heck, they might do away with public schools: learnin’ is a dangerous thing in the eyes of our current overlords.
We progressives better not be seduced by the polls. Remember they showed Hillary a clear winner. We must work like we are the underdogs, ‘cause we just might be!
If Civitas did the poll and published it, it is not an outlier. All of the empirical evidence (polling and special elections) from all over this country reinforces the conclusions of their poll. Republican and conservative pundits are whistling past the graveyard trying to reassure themselves, as Trump bloviates, that there is a “red wave” coming in November. And, the way Trump, the national and state GOP legislatures are currently behaving and keep shooting themselves in their feet, only makes the “blue wave” even stronger. Look at what they are doing on health care, education, immigration, and taxation and tell me this is the path to victory for Republicans? Democrats may have often snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but in the November 2018 election, Republicans seem foreordained to do the same.
Totally agree, now’s The time to stand up for a Candidate. Speak Up in his/her programs, Speak up for your candidate’s platform. Don’t stop at the election now is time to both email an call your elected officials at least 3 times a month. Don’t fall alsleep on this most important nob