I am not a fan of “Sweep of History” arguments. The conviction that “history is on our side” threatens to encourage complacency and is sometimes wrong. History is up for grabs.
In the case of HB2, however, the Whigs have a point. Tim Moore, Pat McCrory, and Phil Berger will have to back down. Either that, or their stubbornness will trigger such a devastating economic fiasco that McCrory’s numbers fall near Bush levels, positioning Cooper to win the governorship and costing nearly every Charlotte-area legislative seat. Then, Cooper will be able to string together a coalition of Democrats and economic-minded Republicans to repeal the law.
All this is because the Fortune 500 not will not back down. HB2’s architects seem to have a “this too shall pass” mindset. If that argument ever had any plausibility, it is rapidly losing it. Seemingly every entertainment company has pledged not to operate in the state. Now, PayPal is cancelling a large expansion. The momentum of resistance is growing, not diminishing, with time.
It will continue. Large corporations have a financial interest in defeating this bill. Failing to exert pressure could cost them customers. On the other side of the coin (pun intended), defeating HB2 will only enhance the public’s impression of these firms’ corporate might. At a time when Big Business has come under assault, this is an opportunity for companies to redeem their images, and they’re not likely to turn it down.
Moreover, many companies are sincere in their opposition. In particular, the Hollywood and technology firms reflect the social values of their California base, which only further ensures that they will not let up. The small-time lawyers and fake businessmen who run state government will eventually wither under the economy’s real forces, or the electorate’s disgust.
Alexander Jones is an original contributor to PoliticsNC.
The economic damage to North Carolina will not occur in a single event like the Great Recession of 2008. The economic harm to North Carolina has already begun, and it will continue to erode the vitality of our businesses.
There have been some high-profile announcements of lost jobs, lost conventions, lost tourism and a growing list of entertainers who will not come to North Carolina. What we will not see or notice are the thousands of decisions by smaller businesses or individual tourists who reject the state. We will not hear about projects or opportunities where the state is never considered because of the damage done to the state’s reputation. When the British Travel office issued a travel advisory, travelers immediately eliminated the possibility of visiting North Carolina. The news of the travel advisory reached around the world, and travelers made decisions accordingly.
The economic harm will be a slow drip of losses doing marginal damage to the workforce, our businesses, and our governments tax base. The North Carolina brand is damaged, and the recalcitrance of the Governor and the General Assembly to own up to the transparent fraud that is HB2 makes the state look even more pathetic.
We did not vote to put representatives in office to fight a losing battle against the Fortune 500. HB2’s architects failed to anticipate that their actions would create a national movement against North Carolina, that North Carolina would become known as a place for racists and state would be dismissed as a place where ignorant rednecks run state government.
Texas and California are populous enough to make markets change for them, but North Carolina is not. The vast majority outside North Carolina opposes the law. It is not a close call. North Carolina’s bathroom law is a trending topic for comedians and satirists, and the embarrassment reanimates every time the governor says something ridiculous on the news.
Opponents are not into a power play; they are hoping McCrory and the General will come to their senses.
Well said!
And while I sadly agree that further extended damage to the state’s economy and reputation will most likely come from a thousand small and under-the-radar cuts, I also hope that some big victories (e.g., in the courts) and some big “or else” messaging (e.g., from corporate CEOs/investors/donors) force an epiphany upon Berger, Moore, et al, sooner than later.
My personal analysis is that McCrory and the NC GOP think their base is more likely to support them if they keep up the bathroom charade. Even if (more likely when) they lose the legal fight with DOJ, they can still appeal to said base by having appeared to risk their own reputations (and taxpayers’ money) in the cause of protecting helpless little girls (who they assume don’t even have cell phones to seek aid–as if) from attacks by rapists in dresses. (Also, apparently no adult women use public bathrooms, which is certainly news to me.)
My reason tells me that even North Carolina Republican voters are not that stupid: but given the current Trump-Fest, I’m beginning to think I’ve been too generous in evaluating the intelligence of Republican voters, here or elsewhere. With right-wing lunatics turning our state into their own public asylum, and the TrumpMonster attempting to do the same to the nation, perhaps anything is possible, including the Apocalypse (in which case, I hope they all go–and leave the rest of us to breathe a sign of relief and go about our business unhindered for a change.)
I think the only thing that would move the NCGOP to repeal HB2 is losing the NBA or losing the education funding (which is unlikely to happen quickly). The economic impact right now is primarily in the larger cities and suburbs, and many of the GOP reps are probably actually happy about that. It is not smart given the larger longer term economic impact, but if they were smart, they would have avoided this mess. They don’t even appear to be smart enough to figure out that they can easily divide the opposition by repealing everything except the bathroom portion of HB2 and get this off the front pages of newspapers, look like rational people who want to play fair, etc etc etc.
While I wish for everything you write to be the case and/or to come to pass, I’ll only believe it when I see it. Beyond its arrogance, the NCGOP is too dug in and bunkered down.
And how do we know what will happen, and the order in which things will unfold, if they do at all??
Will the NCGOP wave the white flag on Hb2 based solely based on adverse corporate/business reaction (including a lessening in corporate campaign contributions, and more reneging on expansions/re-locations)?
Or will surrender on HB2 happen because the NCGOP simply loses its case in federal court. And what if it wins on a technical, narrow ruling? And what if it loses, but simply says “Screw the federal funds! HB2 stays!”?
Or will it be because of declines in tourism dollars and convention traffic?