Mark Harris sure took a long time to come out of his shell, but he might be coming out at just the right time. And Harris might have been doing what he needed to do to be competitive in May–raising money. Now, he seems to on the rise while Thom Tillis and Greg Brannon seem to be stuck.
Throughout the fall and winter, Brannon was the most visible candidate. He was attending events and garnering endorsements. But not all of the attention was positive. He was in court for misleading investors and got caught plagiarizing on his web site. While he’s always been an outsider, his attacks on the GOP establishment seem more shrill and his problems may be giving primary voters second thoughts. His popularity may have peaked and he might be stuck in the upper teens.
Tillis has been on cable and broadcast since New Year’s but he can’t seem to break 30%. He’s ignored the traditional glad-handing that goes with retail politics in favor of television ads and is avoiding the more inflammatory rhetoric that plays to the Tea Party set. His ad buy (paid for by Karl Rove) begins in earnest this week, though, and he may get a charge out of it. However, he’s hoping to appeal to moderates who make up a shrinking portion of GOP primary voters.
In this environment, Rev. Mark Harris is making his move. He’s been more visible in the press and took swipes at Tillis this week. On Monday, he said that he would have the money to get up on television before the primary. Harris may be set to peak at the right time.
Voters are not yet engaged in the primary but they will start tuning in over then next few weeks. If Harris starts communicating at the same time they are tuning in, he might emerge as the anti-Tillis. He’s mainstream enough not to scare folks, but has the solid conservative credentials that primary voters want. And he’s genuine and sincere, something that Tillis certainly is not.
Right now, the primary looks headed to a runoff. However, some candidate will probably need to reach at least 25% to force one. If his buy is large enough, Harris just might be that candidate.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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