According to PPP’s latest poll, McCrory’s approval is up quite a bit. He’s still in negative territory, but at 42/47 he’s doing much better than he was over the summer. He’s improved with both independents and with voters in his own party.
McCrory obviously won’t face the voters until 2016. But it’s never a good thing for the leader of the state party to have the kind of numbers McCrory had around August. The numbers have moved from ‘toxic’ to ‘not popular’ territory. That’s a big difference.
Things have also changed when it comes to the generic legislative ballot. Democrats have a 45-43 advantage currently. That’s the same or a little more Democratic than last year’s result. And keep in mind that PPP is using registered, not likely voters. Factor that in, and it’s possible that Republicans lead in the generic ballot test.
It should go without saying, then, that 2014 is looking far less rosy for Democrats than it was just a few months ago. There’s a good, but not a great, chance that Republicans will maintain their supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature. Of course, there’s still a year left until the election and much could change. But in the short session Republicans are unlikely to do anything as controversial as they did during the long session. If McCrory can get his numbers in positive territory again, then next year will be another good one for the North Carolina GOP.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: firstname.lastname@example.org.