As much as some folks might not want to admit it, there are now two North Carolinas. Governor McCrory is going to have to appeal to both to win reelection.

The first North Carolina is traditional North Carolina – the small towns and rural areas that dot the landscape and once made up the bulk of the state’s voters. People here espouse traditional values, are skeptical of government interference, and the areas in which they live have been economically depressed for some time now. College education is a luxury, and the young people who do leave for college often don’t come back. The population is in decline.

Then there’s the New North Carolina – dynamic, progressive, vibrant, etc. etc. etc. These are the urban areas of the state – Charlotte, the Triangle, Asheville, Wilmington. The people there live in relative prosperity and aren’t really hurting for jobs. Many of them were born outside of North Carolina and outside the South. They’re more secular, less conservative socially, and more open to government intervention. The population skews younger and the area’s abundance has been a magnet for both jobs and people.

Rural North Carolina wants jobs. It voted overwhelmingly for the governor the first time around. McCrory is going to have to convince voters here that things are improving – not just for North Carolina generally, but for the rural, overlooked parts as well – the towns that never make the Forbes “Best Places to Live” lists. Landing an automobile manufacturer would be a huge coup and a symbolic victory for the governor.

If McCrory can’t point to improvement, he’s likely to lose quite a few of his 2012 voters. People here have had enough with the social liberalism of the national Democratic Party, but gubernatorial elections are a different story. McCrory’s prospective opponent Roy Cooper comes from small town North Carolina and can appeal to these voters, especially in Eastern North Carolina. But if things are looking up for these sections of the state – which hasn’t happened in a long time – then they’ll be hard-pressed to pull the lever for a Democrat. For a very good shot at winning reelection, McCrory needs to convincingly argue that it’s morning again in small town North Carolina.

What about New North Carolina? McCrory did very well in the state’s urban areas in his first election, at least for a Republican. Because of McCrory’s perceived shift to the right, he’s going to lose a lot of these voters in 2016. People here want two things: things are going pretty good, so they don’t want anyone to screw it up, and they don’t want someone who is too conservative. If McCrory can point to general economic improvement and isn’t caught up in divisive social issues, he should be in good shape with voters here. One aspect that hasn’t been touched on is that McCrory still maintains some residual loyalty in the Charlotte area. That could go a long way to helping him get reelected.

Bottom line: McCrory is vulnerable because to win in 2016 he has to appeal to both North Carolinas. Of course, so does Attorney General Roy Cooper. If the economy has discernibly improved throughout the state and the cosmopolitans perceive him as a competent moderate, the governor will be in good shape. In fact, I think he only has to satisfy one of these conditions to win reelection. The good news for McCrory: he has numbers on his side to support his argument. Last year, the state’s unemployment rate decreased by 1.8%, the second-highest drop in the nation.

Carolina Comeback? Maybe. But before we can state that definitively, we’ll need proof of a turnaround in the fortunes of rural and small town NC.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.