The political environment seems to be holding in North Carolina to favor Democrats and could be getting better. A High Point University poll shows Democrats with significant leads on the generic ballot questions and a look at recent voter registration numbers shows a surge in young voters since the #NeverAgain movement took off. Those younger voters will almost certainly support Democrats in November.
The HPU poll gives Democrats a seven-point lead, 42-35, among registered voters on the generic ballot question for Congress. The races for legislature offer similar results with Democrats holding a six-point lead in the state house and a five-point lead in the state senate among registered voters. Plenty of voters are undecided but, clearly, the GOP is down right now.
Two questions give insight into the voters’ mood. Donald Trump is underwater among registered voters by a margin 49-41 and overwhelmingly voters are unhappy with the direction of the country. Sixty-two percent of registered voters think the country is on the wrong the track. That’s bad news for the party in power and, in North Carolina, the GOP is in power up and down the ballot. With the economy seeming to be growing and consumer confidence increasing, Trump, his governing style and the inability or unwillingness of Congress to reel him in seem to be likely drivers of the sour mood of the electorate.
Another bit of good news for Democrats shows up in recent voter registrations. According to an analysis by Dr. Michael Bitzer, in March, a surge of people 18-21 registered to vote. In January and February, 26,000 people registered each month but in March that number jumped to 29,000. Almost one-third of those voters were 18-21 years old.
For Democrats to hold the momentum shown in the poll, they’ll need a healthy number of younger voters to show up in November. They lost in midterms in 2010 and 2014 when young people stayed home. The shooting at Parkland seems to have politicized the younger generation and they are change voters. It’s too early to know if the trend will continue and if they’ll stay engaged for another seven months, but if they do, they might be the determining factor in whether 2018 is just a good year for Democrats or real wave. Still, Democrats should be optimistic right now.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Stay tuned for Republicans to try raising the voting age to 21. For the integrity of our elections, you know …
Interesting analysis, and definitely encouraging for the Dems. One question about the 18 year olds. Many of them will be in college or new jobs (hopefully) by the fall. A lot of states have made it increasingly difficult for college students to vote. For those entering college, which is its own challenge, the additional obstacles put in their way by voting restrictions may lower the turnout. Obviously this may be a small issue, but I would not be surprised to see the fall races decided by close numbers.