More thoughts on Virginia, part 1

by | Nov 5, 2021 | Editor's Blog | 10 comments

The takes from Virginia keep coming and I’ve still got more. That said, I think we need to remember that an election, much like a poll, is a snapshot in time. Right now, Democrats are struggling with a difficult national environment, some of their own making and some not. The election, particularly in Virginia, should be instructive, not predictive, for 2022. 

My first thought is that too many people are trying to blame race for Terry McAuliffe’s loss on Tuesday. While it certainly played a role, race is present in every election in the South and has been forever. That won’t change in the foreseeable future. 

But it’s also simplistic to blame just race. While Critical Race Theory is the latest bugaboo Republicans are using to scare White working class voters, the broader culture wars play just as big a role. Democrats have allowed themselves to be branded as the party that’s attacking traditional values. From defund the police to CRT to gun control to the debate over transgender rights, Democrats are seen by conservatives, especially in rural areas, as a threat to their way of life. The CRT attack didn’t happen in a vacuum. It was believable because people had preconceived notions about the Democratic Party.

What’s most concerning should be the turnout. The GOP showed up without Trump on the ticket. In 2017 in the Virginia gubernatorial race and 2018 in the midterms, the GOP base that drove up turnout in the 2016 and 2020 elections largely stayed home, while the Democratic base, angry and scared of Trump, came out. This year, the GOP base showed up in force in the off-year election without Trump on the ticket. If Democrats hope to win in 2022, they need their turnout to keep pace with that of the GOP or reduce the reasons Republicans have to go vote against them. 

One op-ed in the New York Times calls on Democrats to push back against CRT by educating voters “that powerful elites and special interests use race as a tool of division to distract hard-working people of all races while they get robbed blind.” I’ve been hearing some version of this all my life, but I don’t think the authors have spent much time around those rural White working class voters, at least not in the South. Those voters aren’t thinking about politics. They’re reactionaries responding to negative stimuli.  

Instead of trying to educate working class White Southerners about the evils of racism, Democrats could make themselves less scary. They should have forcefully pushed back against the Defund the Police narrative when it first came out. They should dismiss the CRT fearmongering by assuring parents, often and repeatedly, that schools will teach history, not an agenda. It might not convince many to change their votes, but it could slow turnout driven by fear. 

And Democrats need to run on the issues they are trying to pass, not against Donald Trump. As so many progressives have pointed out, the Build Back Better agenda is popular, but nobody knows what it is. Spend more money telling people that Democrats are pushing for paid family leave and universal child care. Let them know that Democrats want to give Medicare the authority to negotiate drug prices to save money for consumers. And remind them that Democrats want to expand Medicaid to hold down health care costs for everyone. Don’t run on a slogan. Talk about how good legislation will impact lives of working class Americans and make sure voters know that Republicans are standing in the way.

Race and cultural issues are never going away for good and they will always be most potent when people are uncertain about their future. We are in the midst of a historical reckoning and global pandemic at the same time. It’s no coincidence that CRT and defund the police worked to scare people to people the polls. Democrats should work to make themselves less threatening to people who are driven by fear.  

I’ve got more thoughts but this is enough for today and I may need to express it better later.

10 Comments

  1. Rick Gunter

    Thomas, as usual, your insights are keen and incisive. But I beg to differ on at least one aspect of your analysis. I do so as a person on the ground here in Virginia during the recent unpleasantness known as the gubernatorial election.

    Some voters, frightened by the specter of a new racial bogeyman known at Critical Race Theory, voted their fears rather than their hopes.

    But too many of my fellow Virginians, yearning for the balm of normalcy, viewed the Youngkin-McAuliffe joust as a typical Virginia election in which the issues of economy and comfort were paramount. Unfortunately, these still are not so-called normal times. The main issue in this election, as it promises to be going forward in other elections stretching into the uncharted territory of 2022, 2024 and perhaps into the midterm and presidential elections immediately thereafter, is the future of democracy. Most voters cannot relate to that issue or fail to comprehend its impact on their lives and those they love and who will follow after them. But democracy is the prime issue. Do we save democracy or let it swiftly die at the hands of a party and its members and leaders who put power and a two-time impeached and disgraced president of the United States ahead of their country? For if we lose democracy, then capitalism, the proverbial two chickens in the pot and multiple sets of wheels in our garages won’t mean very much.

    Perhaps I am in the minority in this view. Based on the results of the Virginia election, I clearly am in the minority. I hope I am wrong. I hope against hope that Trump and Trumpism will fade. But I fear that we as a people lack the conviction and the will to defeat them. They already have radicalized perhaps 30-to-40 percent of Americans. If that does not keep you awake at nights, then I don’t know what will. The enemy is not at our gates. The enemy is insider them. We, at this very moment, are in an outgoing national crisis in which the January 6th insurrection at the U.S. Capitol was only one battle in a wider war. There will be others.

  2. phoenix

    I have a few nit picks, but overall your are getting there.

  3. Andy Stevens

    Not only “defund the police” but disarm the citizen is the rally cry of North Carolina Democrats. Remember, they are strongly behind the perpetuation of racist Jim Crow law and enthusiastically support “woke” urban Sheriff’s who deny budding new gun owners, many of minorities and especially young women, of their permission slips to purchase and to carry firearms. Remember, next summer the Supreme Court will be weighing in on such practices, and gun owners as a group are regular and reliable voters.

    Plus, voters are certainly going to be tired of outsider groups such as Eric Holder’s “Sue Till Blue” interfering with the necessary primaries in their efforts to jiggle the election maps to their liking.

    No, you will have one hell of a fired up conservative base for the 2022 elections in North Carolina; you can count on it.

    • cocodog

      I would be interested as to where you got this information about NC Democrats advocating “De fund the cops” and Sheriff’s deny firearm permits? NC is a “shall issue” state, the only reason a sheriff may refuse to issue a permit is the applicant has something in their background which is disqualifying. Please enlighten us?

  4. cocodog

    Tom, you made some great points. I am looking forward to more. Fear is a pathway to action for folks who fail to grasp the issues. Folks usually fear what they do not understand. I do not believe there is any question as to what Biden means by “build back better”. It sort of speaks for itself. Kind of like a fire plug, almost everyone knows what they are designed to do. The more folks who can see tangible results, the better Democrats will do. I hope today is the truing point!

  5. Adam

    “…the Build Back Better agenda is popular, but nobody knows what it is.”

    How is the above statement not a self-contradiction? How can something which is unknown be popular?

    • Norma Munn

      I have wondered about this, but even when an elected official tries to talk about real content a great many media folks turn to the usual “he said/she said” questioning mode which tends to obscure even a modest amount of real information from the elected official. Still, the information is out there if one is willing to spend even a few minutes trying to find it.

      • cocodog

        Clove and a few others do not care what “Build Back Better Means”, nor will he invest the time to enlighten themselves. They are just playing a game that gives them a great deal of personal satisfaction. We have seen this before. Folks make comments that reflect the thoughts of a few right-wing broadcasters. Most websites bar these folks from playing this game, but Mills seems to believe in freedom of speech, regardless of how ridiculous it may be. I tend to fully agree, nor am I offended until it advocates violence.
        Moreover, on the positive side, it allows us the opportunity to point out the truth based on the facts and common sense as you did. This is highly valuable. Misinformation and corruption (as we are finding out through various committee hearings and prior to the testimony of some very brave folks ) lurks in the shadows.

    • JWN

      When informed what is in the BBB Act, voters respond overwhelmingly positive to the specifics of the legislation. But when asked if they support the generic BBB Act, voters respond “huh”? And since the details are still being negotiated and therefor in flux, few know what the hell is in the legislation.

  6. Jill McCorkle

    I so appreciate this smart and instructive point of view! Thank you, Thomas. As always, thoughtful and well said.

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