The Congressional race in NC-11 is heating up. Two polls show the race is tight in a district that Republicans hoped to hold easily. Democratic nominee Moe Davis released a poll yesterday showing that he is in a statistical tie with his Republican opponent, Madison Cawthorn. The poll was conducted back in July and shows Cawthorn leading by a thin 42-40 margin. The poll memo notes that the district was redrawn after the redistricting lawsuit and unites Buncombe Country for the first time in a decade. A second poll by Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shows a five point race. The last time all of Buncombe was combined, Democrat Heath Shuler held the seat.
In addition, Cawthorn has seen a rash of bad news reports in recent days. Questions about his honesty and use of symbols tied to white supremacists have surfaced recently. Cawthorn is running for the seat once held by Mark Meadows, President Trump’s chief of staff, and won a primary against an opponent backed by Meadows and Trump. But he’s had a bad few days.
Cawthorn starts with a remarkably thin resume. He’s only 25 years old and a college dropout who, in 2019, said his only jobs have been manager of a fast-food restaurant and “staff assistant” in Mark Meadow’s Congressional office. He received a recommendation to the U.S. Naval Academy by Meadows but was rejected.
That’s where some of his problem begins. Cawthorn was in a car accident when he was 18 years old that left him in a wheelchair. During the campaign, he has repeatedly implied that the accident kept him from going to Annapolis but, in reality, he was rejected by the Academy. The implication makes him look less than honest, despite his boy-next-door looks.
Cawthorn has also been displaying imagery related to white supremacist groups. He named his business, from which he derives no reported income, SPQR, Inc., a Latin abbreviation that has been adopted by white supremacist groups. He also frequently uses a Betsy Ross flag as a backdrop, another symbol adopted by white supremacists. And recently, photos from his Instagram page emerged that showed him visiting Hitler’s home in the Alps, calling it a “bucketlist” trip and referring to it as the “Fuhrer’s vacation home.” Maybe it’s all coincidence but it’s a bad look for a Congressional candidate.
For his part, Moe Davis is a retired Air Force colonel who grew up in Shelby and came back to Asheville after his service. He served as Chief Prosecutor at Guantanamo and taught law school at Howard University. He has excited Democrats in western North Carolina. Now, he needs to show that he has campaign that can take advantage of the momentum and win in a tough district.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Thank you for the recap. I’ve checked Cawthorn’s Instagram and he is agressively anti-liberal. This isn’t a good tactic for someone who, if elected, should represent all his constituents not just those in his own party. We’re far to polarized as it is – we don’t need someone who will make it worse. Moe Davis is getting my vote.
I’m glad that this election is getting a bit more attention.
It becomes apparent quite quickly that Davis simply has more gravitas than Cawhtorn who, up until now, has been able to coast on a very sympathetic personal story but seems to have a very shallow and superficial understanding of the issues. It should also be noted that the March primary was very crowded and that he won the runoff in part due to a backlash among Republicans over Mark Meadows timing his last minute announcement that he would not run again in a manner obviously designed to clear the field for a personal friend of his wife.
Cawthorn also benefited in that runoff from a lot of bad blood between district Republicans and Lynda Bennett, his runoff opponent, as outlined in this article:
https://www.smokymountainnews.com/news/item/29326-some-wnc-republicans-won-t-back-trump-endorsed-candidate
With the return of all of Buncombe County to the district NC-11 still favors Republicans demographically, but history has shown that it can be competitive. Jackson, Haywood, Swain, Madison, and Yancey counties have shown a willingness to support Democrats who can connect with them, as they did for Heath Schuler during each of his runs, and as they did back in the 80’s when then supported James McClure Clarke during his time in office. Back then NC-11 was arguably the most competitive district in the country with incumbents being defeated in 1980, 1982, 1984, 1986, and 1990. (Clarke and Republican Bill Hendon swapped the seat back in forth in 82, 84, and 86.)
The district has shifted more towards Republicans since then, but with the right candidate running the right campaign Democrats have a shot.