Andrew Dunn has created a great new site called Longleaf Politics that, among other things, is tracking polls in North Carolina. The most recent entries look at Congressional races in NC-09 and NC-13. The polls were conducted by PPP for the Democratic SuperPAC Patriot Majority USA.
Patriot Majority has been a major player in the world of SuperPACs for the past few cycles. They played early and heavily in the Hagan-Tillis race in 2014. It looks like they will be playing in Congressional races in 2018. They looked at a total of twelve Congressional districts in the current round of polling.
According to their polls, Dan McCready trails incumbent Republican Robert Pittenger in NC-09 by only five points, 42-37. Since at the time of the poll, McCready had not been communicating across the district and he’s a first-time candidate, the 37% probably reflects the support for a generic Democrat, not a bad place to start. Meanwhile Pittenger has been in a back-and-forth with his Republican primary challenger, Mark Harris, and his favorability is upside down with 31% approving of his job performance and 39% disapproving. McCready has raised an impressive $1.9 million so far, outraising everybody else in the field. McCready has a token primary opponent but will almost certainly be giving Pittenger a run for his money assuming Pittenger gets past Harris.
In NC-13, Kathy Manning is only trailing Republican freshman Ted Budd by three points, 43-40. The district was the closest Congressional race in the state in 2016. Like Pittenger, Budd’s approval rating is upside down with 38% disapproving and 33% approving. Again, Manning had yet to start communicating and is also a first time candidate. She’s raised more than $1.2 million, outstripping Budd’s $907,000. Like McCready, Manning has to survive a minor primary challenge but she’s up on television and will likely win handily.
The third district that could be in play is NC-02. Incumbent Republican George Holding will face either former legislator and 2016 and 2012 Democratic lieutenant governor nominee Linda Coleman or Raleigh entrepreneur Ken Romley. (Full disclosure, I work with the Romley campaign). The district is the most urban/suburban district in the state still held by a Republican. It was the second closest Congressional race in 2016, just a little behind NC-13 . Romley, who has self-funded much of his campaign, is up on television and could keep up with Holding financially in a general election matchup. As Indy Week said, “Romley could be a formidable challenger in the fall. Meanwhile, his family-man, middle-of-the-road persona could be attractive to the kinds of well-educated suburban Republicans who are fed up with Trump and willing to pull the lever for a moderate Democrat.”
North Carolina may have three competitive Congressional races in November. Once again, the national spot light will focus on the Old North State. After that, get ready for 2020 when we have a US Senate contest, a gubernatorial race and the presidency to hold our attention.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
You might want to take a closer look at the NC-07. Dr. Kyle Horton is running a strong campaign against incumbent David Rouzer. As a medical doctor Dr. Kyle appeals to many voters whose number one concern is health care. Dr. Horton has a long and strong history fighting for veterans in a district with large numbers of veterans. Dr. Horton has taken strong environmental positions about GenX in the Cape Fear River and opposition to seismic blasting and offshore drilling. She is appearing in multiple campaign events across the district every day with record standing room only crowds. She is quickly approaching the $250,000 contribution amount. She has surrounded herself with a top notch campaign staff of paid workers and an enthusiastic cadre of volunteers. You might pay some attention to this race because it may be biggest NC surprise on election day in November.
Question: Was Manning mentioned as essentially a generic Democrat in the poll about NC-13? Wouldn’t ANY Democrat have polled roughly the same in a race against Budd? Wouldn’t Manning’s opponent, Adam Coker, have polled about the same? Coker has been campaigning very hard and Manning barely at all. Neither has any real name recognition. I think this primary is going to be much closer than you believe.
Personally, I think PPP has a record of shoveling manure and calling it a poll, which might explain a few of the things you’re pointing out. Their NC-13 viewpoint strikes me as unduly optimistic because Budd appears to be popular with his base and that’s not a part of the state where I’d expect a Dem to outperform, but of course, maybe the “wave” will change all that. NC-02 on the other hand, makes PPP a lot easier to believe as George Holding has dropped a ton in the estimation of his base (his constituent service sucks as bad as GK Butterfield’s), and it will be interesting to see how well his underfunded primary opponent does against him.