The initial analysis of the competitive NC Senate districts this year is now complete. But wait, wasn’t the latest entry in the series Senate District 25? Aren’t there 25 more districts left? Well, yes, but none of them appear to be competitive. As you get higher up in district numbers for the Senate, you move to the western part of the state, which outside the major cities is strongly Republican. That said, there are a couple districts that deserve a mention, but aren’t competitive enough to warrant a full post:

SD-26 (Berger) Two weeks ago, in a segment on NC Spin, Democratic strategist Brad Crone said that internal polling showed Sen. Berger with only a small, single-digit lead over his Democrat opponent, psychologist William Osborne. Could we be in for a major surprise this November? Highly, highly doubtful! Not only was this poll taken in the midst of an acrimonious legislative session, but it was also taken when Berger Jr.’s defeat was in the news, and after McCrory compared the Senate leader to Harry Reid. And if Berger is in any way threatened, he will be certain to use his vast campaign warchest of over $1,000,000 – more than any other incumbent in the legislature, House or Senate, Democrat or Republican – to quash his opponent.

SD-27 (Wade) This Guilford-based seat won’t be competitive because Democrats didn’t even put up a candidate against the freshman Wade. They might want to rectify that in 2016, as this is probably a seat they will need to pick up if they want to take back the State Senate.

SD-49 (Van Duyn) This is the Nesbitt seat, which Democrat Terry Van Duyn was appointed to following his death. Republican Mark Crawford has raised more money than the incumbent. The Van Duyn campaign recently conducted a poll which showed her leading by 15 points, an indication that her being arrested while protesting at a Moral Monday rally doesn’t appear to be affecting her standing with voters in this Asheville-based district (at least not negatively).

SD-50 (Davis) Republican Jim Davis was elected in the Republican wave of 2010, displacing Democrat John Snow. Snow sought a rematch against Davis, and some observers felt it would be one of the hottest Senate contests of 2012. What happened? Davis won by 14 points. This time his opponent is Democrat Jane Hipps, who lacks the name recognition of Snow and probably can’t hope to do any better. She has outraised the incumbent though, but this is still a 60% Romney district.

SENATE RANKINGS – AUGUST 13, 2014

Solid Republican
SD-02 (Sanderson)
SD-06 (Brown)
SD-07 (Pate)
SD-11 (Newton)
SD-17 (Barringer)
SD-24 (Gunn)
SD-26 (Berger)
SD-27 (Wade)
SD-29 (Tilman)
SD-30 (Randleman)
SD-31 (Krawiec)
SD-33 (Bingham)
SD-34 (Brock)
SD-35 (Tucker)
SD-36 (Hartsell)
SD-39 (Rucho)
SD-41 (Tarte)
SD-42 (Wells)
SD-43 (Harrington)
SD-44 (Curtis)
SD-45 (Soucek)
SD-46 (Daniel)
SD-47 (Hise)
SD-48 (Apodaca)
SD-50 (Davis)

Solid Democratic
SD-03 (Smith-Ingram)
SD-04 (Bryant)
SD-05 (Davis)
SD-13 (Smith)
SD-14 (Blue)
SD-16 (Stein)
SD-20 (McKissick)
SD-21 (Clark)
SD-22 (Woodard)
SD-23 (Foushee)
SD-28 (Robinson)
SD-32 (Parmon)
SD-37 (Jackson)
SD-38 (Ford)
SD-40 (Waddell)
SD-49 (Van Duyn)

Likely Republican
SD-08 (Rabon)
SD-10 (Jackson)
SD-12 (Rabin)

Tilt Republican
SD-09 (Lee)
SD-15 (Open Seat)
SD-18 (Barefoot)

Pure Toss-Up
SD-01 (Cook)
SD-19 (Meredith)
SD-25 (McLaurin) *Democrat-held seat*

Senators Rabon, Jackson, and Rabin all have very strong advantages in their respective races but not so strong as to be considered invulnerable to defeat. It would take a huge Democratic wave and some campaign missteps to put those seats into play, however. They’re worth paying attention to but barring something drastic, they’re not going to be competitive.

The last two categories on this list, then, is where the real action is going to be this November. Cook, Meredith, and Barefoot are the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents and Democrats have recruited strong challengers to face them. Districts 9 and 15 are both open seats in New Hanover and Wake counties respectively. In a normal year they would be favored to go Republican but Democrats have a better shot than usual in those places because of unrest with the state legislature. And finally, SD-25 is held by Democrat Gene McLaurin and is one that Republicans could conceivably pick up and might actually be favored to do so.

If Democrats have a great year in North Carolina, then they’ll knock off Republicans Cook, Meredith, Barefoot, and Lee, and also pick up the open seat in Wake County while protecting McLaurin in SD-25. This result would surely indicate a greater than anticipated level of discontent with the state legislature and a comfortable win by Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race.

On the other hand, if there’s a red tide at the national level, then Republicans could see all of their vulnerable incumbents reelected, while picking up the McLaurin seat in SD-25, boosting their majority in the State Senate by 1 while Thom Tillis knocks off Hagan at the top of the ticket.

Both of these scenarios are absolutely possibilities at this point in time, but it’s too early to say which one is more likely to unfold. We’ll know a lot more in one month’s time. Until then, it’s on to analyzing the House races.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.