We’re now in the final three weeks of the election. It’s time to take a brief look at the state of the US Senate race in North Carolina. Kay Hagan has held a small but sustainable lead since mid-August. Last week, though, movement shifted toward Thom Tillis. A couple of public polls showed him closing the gap and the NRSC announced Monday that they are investing $6 million in the race.
The New York Times reported that Tillis has a small $200,000 cash-on-hand advantage after the 3rd quarter report. That’s misleading, though. Hagan bought the final four weeks of television in August while Tillis was still struggling to get his fundraising up and running. On a cost per point basis, Hagan paid about half what Tillis will pay now.
Back in August, when the DSCC bought $9 million in TV time for Hagan, Republicans mocked the Democrats for hitting the panic button. Now, it looks like the GOP missed an opportunity. The NRSC buy will go less than half as far as the DSCC buy. They are paying more and getting less. All of this means that Hagan and the Democrats will go into the final weeks dominating the airwaves.
Instead of fighting over the same issues, the campaigns have different audiences and different messages. The Hagan campaign is heavily focused on women right now. They are slamming Tillis on equal pay and access to health care. The GOP has shifted scare tactics from the ominous Obamacare to the even more ominous ISIS and Ebola. Hagan wants to make the race about Thom Tillis and the legislature. Tillis wants to scare voters into voting against Obama. Who knows? He may be just one Ebola patient away from victory.
All cycle, Tillis has had difficulty consolidating his base. Tea Party folks have never trusted him and Greg Brannon, the Tea Party candidate who lost the primary, won’t endorse him. But gay marriage might unite them. The only thing scarier than Ebola and ISIS is gay people getting married.
By all indications, Democrats have a fierce field operation underway. New registrations are up and Democratic ballots lead Republicans in mail-in absentee ballots, a form of voting traditionally dominated by the GOP. The modern Democratic ground game, built by Obama ’08, is now in its sixth year in the state. Tillis will probably need a couple of points advantage in the polls to offset the voters put into the polls by the Democratic GOTV effort.
Right now, the race is probably about tied but Hagan may still have a slight advantage. In-person early voting starts a week from today. About half the state will probably vote early. If Tillis can’t get a little more traction between now and then, he goes into Election Day at a significant disadvantage.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Thomas, I appreciate your leaning toward optimism about Hagan’s chances, as it may help buoy my own spirits. At the moment, I dread that Tillis’ attacks on Hagan via Obama, his misrepresentations re: Hagan’s record, and his more recent use of ridiculous scare tactics will be too much for NC’s gullible, undecided, and mostly disengaged voters, and that he will eke out a victory.
Beyond your optimism, I need the polls to immediately show Hagan with a return to her earlier 2-4 point leads.
I was hoping to see an ad in which Hagan touts her own record and what she has done for NC rather than another attack ad against Tillis before early voting begins. I will still vote for Hagan, but I really wanted her to take the high road before the election.
The architect of what the GOP is calling a great NCGA session is struggling to develop a lead against a very unpopular Democratic senator. And the best Tillis can do is go after Obama.
We’ll see how deeply racist this state is… what will they hate more: Obama or what Tillis and NCGOP have done to education, environment, jobs, etc.? We’ll know in November.
Dear “Some One,” I hope that the voters of NC are smart enough to figure out that this race isn’t about Obama – he’s a lame duck president. It is about who and what is best for NC and that is Hagan. Why she is so unpopular is a mystery to me. I think she has done as well as could be expected considering what she has been up against in DC!
So if your candidate loses its because everyone else is racist. What a jerk.
This race isn’t about Obama or Isis or Ebola. It is about who will work for NC and its citizenry and it sure as H isn’t Tillis!