It’s a slow-news Friday, so why not take one last look at social media rankings before the May primary? Maybe they can’t tell us who’s going to win next Tuesday, but they might be able to tell us who has the momentum in the final days. As always, the first number listed is Facebook ‘likes’, and the second is Twitter followers, the third number being the combined social media score. Let’s go!

1. Thom Tillis 62,038 + 21,100 = 83,138 (April total = 66,846) +16,292
2. Greg Brannon 73,599 + 5,871 = 79,470 (April total = 75,870) +3,600
3. Kay Hagan 57,795 + 5,864 = 63,659 (April total = 60,142) +3,517
4. Heather Grant 1,815 + 15,500 = 17,315 (April total = 10,969) +6,346
5. Mark Harris 10,695 + 2,527 = 13,222 (April total = 9,777) +3,445
6. Ted Alexander 1,414 + 905 = 2,319 (April total = 2,209) +110
7. Edward Kryn 141 + 45 = 186 (April total = 153) +33

No campaign accounts were found for Alex Lee Bradshaw or Jim Snyder.

We have a new leader in the social media rankings. It’s Thom Tillis! He added an amazing 16,292 followers over the course of the last four weeks. Caveats about candidates buying followers apply, but if social media is a reliable gauge of support, then Thom Tillis has the momentum going into Tuesday.

Brannon, Hagan, Grant, and Harris all added very similar numbers of followers in the 3,000 range.



Percentage change in support over the last month could perhaps be a more reliable gauge of momentum. Under this metric, the candidate with the momentum is …

***Heather Grant +57.85%***

Mark Harris +35.24%
Thom Tillis +24.37%
Edward Kryn +21.57%
Kay Hagan +5.85%
Ted Alexander +4.98%
Greg Brannon +4.74%

Yes, Grant had the largest percentage gain in followers! This probably came from getting more press coverage through the debates, if it’s rooted in any cause other than “buying” followers. But regardless, it’s probably too little, too late for Grant, whose chances of coming in second are quite improbable.

The candidate with the dubious distinction of having the least momentum, according to the Momentumeter, is Dr. Greg Brannon. This is perhaps a matter of peaking too early, and maybe getting Dr. Rand Paul to campaign for him too late?

This will be the last “social media” post before the May primary. Now, if social media followers are any indication, Tuesday should be a very close contest between Dr. Greg Brannon and Speaker Thom Tillis, with Tillis placing first. The polls, however, show Tillis with a strong lead and a good chance of avoiding a runoff. In the future we might have to adjust our social media “model” to get it to conform with reality. For example, is there a way to control for candidates who “follow” a large number of people? Perhaps divide number of “followers” by “follows”? In the meantime, just remember that this is just a fun exercise, don’t take these sorts of posts too seriously.


  1. Unaffiliated Voter

    WE the PEOPLE choose Dr. Greg Brannon! the BIASED rantings of leftwingers like Rob RielleWho are showing their colors again…

    Brannon OWES NO ONE in politics! HE is the natural born LEADER that we NEED NOW !

  2. Jimmy Rouse

    What difference at this point does it make?

    Greg Brannon told Glenn Beck:

    “We are pulling back the veil and showing who the wizard is and they are getting exposed,” Brannon said of Tillis, whose conservatism he questioned at multiple points. “We are going to win this without a runoff. There’s no doubt in my mind. The wave is coming.”

    Dr. Brannon will win without a runoff!

    • Thomas Ricks

      “Romney WON! CHECK AGAIN! CHECK AGAIN!” Karl Rove 2012.

  3. fiddlestix

    How many of Brannon’s followers are actually voters in NC? His numbers are inflated by the nationwide Paul-ites echo chamber.

  4. EQV

    People can buy twitter followers. That’s no secret and I would just bet Mr. Rove lent his minions’ expertise to the Tillis campaign to do just that.

    There’s even a site called “twitter audit” to see how many fake followers you have. Celebrities, esp. “reality show” celebs, buy fakes all the time.

    Not impressed by Tilli$’s “momentum”.

    • Jimmy Rouse

      Dr. Brannon will win without a runoff as he told Glenn Beck of Beck’s radio show. I believe Dr. Brannon and I believe Glenn Beck. Thank you.

      • Thomas Ricks

        There is no greater self identifier of that which one should avoid than “I believe Glenn Beck.”

    • Bibbity Bop 1-2

      They weren’t bought, and they’re mostly legit. Appreciate the speculation though.

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