The map you see to the left depicts the partisan breakdown of new voters by county. Unaffiliated voters constituted the greatest number of new voters in 74 of 100 counties, colored purple on the map. In five counties, Republicans outnumbered everyone else. And in 21 counties, a plurality of new voters were Democrats.
What’s a ‘new voter’? Exactly like it sounds: someone who just voted for the first time. In this post, though, it’s going to be used as shorthand for something completely different and very specific: a North Carolina voter whose registration date is somewhere between January 1st, 2013 and the present. What this post is, is really an attempt to go county-by-county and see the partisan makeup of the new voters registered in this period.
Here’s another way to look at things. Let’s take out the unaffiliated voters, the purple people, and just look at the two-party breakdown. Counties colored blue had a larger number of new registered Democrats than Republicans, counties colored red had more new Republicans than Democrats.
For North Carolina as a whole, the 2013-2014 period saw over 600,000 new voters. These were people either new to the state and recently registered, longtime residents who for whatever reason only decided to register recently, young people registering for the first time, or intrastate movers who relocated to another county and updated their voter registration.
Of this group – those with a registration date of January 1st, 2013 to the present – 31% registered as Democrats, 26% registered as Republicans, and 43% registered as unaffiliated voters. Excluding unaffiliated registrants, the breakdown of new voters statewide was 54% Democrats, 46% Republicans. In other words, North Carolina continues to trend Democratic, at least if we assume these unaffiliated voters are divided roughly evenly in their “true” affiliation, with the rest of them being pure swing voters.
The 54-46 spread doesn’t seem like much, but over a few electoral cycles it adds up. Democrats gained 30,000 new voters over the GOP in this period, almost a third of Mitt Romney’s 2012 margin in the state. And this doesn’t even take into account voters who died, a group that is probably disproportionately white and conservative.
Now, a couple caveats: just because someone in the voter file has a voter registration date of 2013 or later does not mean they actually registered for the first time in that period. There are some voters who registered back in the 1960s or earlier, but because they moved to a different county, they have a registration date that is much later. That also makes it impossible, unfortunately, to compare the breakdown of new voters across time because those registered say, ten years ago, might have already moved away or otherwise dropped off the voting rolls.
The county helping Democrats the most, at least for the 2014 cycle, is Mecklenburg County. 64% of new voters there registered as Democrats, compared to only 36% registering as Republicans. In other counties the ratio of Democrats to Republicans is even steeper, but Mecklenburg’s sheer size makes it a tough area in which to be lagging behind by such an amount. Out of Mecklenburg, Democrats netted about 12,000 new voters. Now, a lot of this might be replacing voters who dropped off the rolls, and not all of these people actually showed up at the polls, but the same is true for other counties.
The second “worst” county for Republicans if we use this measure: Durham. Durham often gets overlooked because its neighbor Wake is much larger, but Wake is much more balanced in the composition of its new voters. While in Wake the breakdown is 58-42 Democrat, in Durham it’s 79-21. The result is that Democrats netted over 6,000 new voters in Wake, but over 8,000 in Durham.
Using this same measure, we also find that the brightest spot for Republicans is Union County, where they made a net gain of over 2,400 voters. At least some of these are people who moved from Mecklenburg County, accounting for some of the GOP drop there. The same is true for Iredell, the second richest source of newly registered Republicans. Notice, though, the net gains for the GOP aren’t nearly as large as the numbers for the Democrats in the big urban counties. If the GOP wants to turn these numbers around, they need to either stop the bleeding in the urban areas, or hope that exurban and rural counties become even redder.
Another possibility is that conservatives are less likely to register Republicans, while liberals are more partisan. This means unaffiliated voters would be a more Republican-leaning group, but I haven’t seen any evidence of that. More data that would be helpful: where these new voters are coming from, age, racial data, sex, etc. That might come in a later post. This information is all found in the voter registration files on the North Carolina State Board of Elections website.
For those interested, the following is a table of the partisan breakdown, in percentage, of those with registration dates of January 1, 2013 to the present:
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
I keep hearing that NC has been trending Democratic over the last few years but it’s odd given how Republicans have had such statewide success since the 2010 elections…if anything the state has been trending Republican downballot over the last 2 or 3 cycles…
Will 2016 be a turning point for Democrats in North Carolina thanks to changing demographics? Thoughts?
Mike L the only reason why the Republicans have had such statewide success is due to gerrymandering. Both parties do it but as of recently the Republicans have done it better. It’s not because they have great ideas or they are for the people. Do some research and homework first. Also there is a lawsuit in the courts now based on the gerrymandering that the Republicans have done.
Sorry perhaps I should have clarified. I was speaking of statewide races based on the popular vote, not gerrymandered districts such as state house, state senate, congressional districts. I’m referring to races such as the 2010 and 2014 GOP senate wins, NC going for Romney in 2012, GOP voting for a Republican Governor and Lt. Governor in 2012. I’m not touting their successes (I’m not a Republican personally) I’m just pointing out that starting with the 2010 elections Democrats in NC have been on a bit of a losing streak when it comes to statewide races (which have nothing to do with gerrymandering).
One has to assume, with the influx of progressive transplants to the urban areas Democrats are poised to make a comeback over the next few cycles, at least when it comes to races that are not decided by gerrymandering…In my earlier post I was just wondering aloud if 2016 would be the year that the pendulum starts swinging back for Democrats in NC…
Thomas, I’m mildly insulted by your comment characterizing independent voters (or unaffiliated, if you prefer that term) as being “divided roughly evenly in their “true” affiliation, with the rest of them being pure swing voters.” That characterization makes it sound as if unaffiliated voters are not committed, consistent, thoughtful voters. I am an independent voter, registered as “unaffiliated.” I vote for the candidate I think is best for the job whether that candidate is independent, Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, Green Party or what have you. My true affiliation is independent. I do not “swing” between Democratic & Republican candidates. I think both of the primary parties (Republican & Democratic) are self-contradictory. They both claim to stand for something which their actions indicate they do not stand for. They both appear from my viewpoint as intellectually dishonest organizations more concerned with their own power than with achieving the goals they espouse. I know too many people who vote strictly based on party affiliation even when they know that a different candidate is better for the job. I think that most unaffiliated voters know what their positions are and realize that neither the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party shares those positions. The unaffiliated voters are not secretly in line with one party or another. They do not swing from one view to another. They vote for the best candidates they can even when none of the candidates are appealing.
That was me who wrote the post, not Thomas, so blame me for not being clearer with my thoughts. I was just trying to say that, for the purposes of this post, we’re assuming that the new unaffiliated voters don’t overwhelmingly lean to one party or the other, as that might change the analysis.
Most studies find that the overwhelming majority of “independent” voters are not actually swing voters, they have very definite partisan leanings, with some of them being Democrats or Republicans in all but name.
People who truly vote the person and not the party are relatively rare, and I wasn’t commenting on whether or not they are well-informed or not. Just like their partisan counterparts, some are, some aren’t. Since you’re on this site to begin with, you’re probably in the first group.