In another bad sign for Republicans, Democrats won a special election in a district in New York that’s considered a bellwether. Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a district that has tracked presidential results, with Biden winning it by two points and Trump and Obama winning it before that. Democrats won the seat in the 2018 wave and held it in 2020, though Republicans held it from 2012 to 2016.
Analysts initially believed that the seat would easily go to Republicans in a lower turnout special election with the president’s approvals in the tank. Molinaro tried to make the race a referendum on Biden, inflation, and crime. Ryan has fought to make the race about abortion and protecting democracy. Polls showed Molinaro with a very narrow lead heading into the election and Republicans have significantly outspent Democrats in their attempt to take the seat.
With more than 90% of the vote counted, Ryan leads Molinaro by about 2%. There’s not much way Molinaro can catch him. The seat was vacated by Democrat Antonio Delgado who left Congress to become lieutenant governor, so the balance in the House won’t change.
In another New York special, Republican Joseph Sempolinski only defeated Democrat Max Della Pia by about 6% in a district that the Cook Report called Solid Republican. That race margin should scare Republicans as much as Molinaro’s loss. Five-thirty-eight says it’s an R+15 district.
These races are just two special elections. Alone they don’t predict much, but with the outcome of the Kansas abortion referendum, they’re mounting evidence the political environment has shifted significantly in favor of Democrats. They’re also evidence that abortion is as salient an argument as inflation. Republicans who were confidently predicting a red wave just a few months ago should be seriously reassessing the election cycle. At this point, issues, abortion in particular, are driving this election more than presidential approval ratings.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
For my money (and vote) democracy and civil and human rights are on the November 8th ballot. But so is pushback against a corrupt and anti-democratic political party.
Good grief! How could any rational person vote for Republicans in this election cycle? Seriously! That party’s cult leader tried to overturn an election, attempted a coup, fomented a violent insurrection, and may have violated the Espionage Act. He failed to protect the American public from the worse pandemic in at least a century during which countless souls needlessly died because of Mr. Trump’s ignorance. And don’t tell me that he did not conspire with the Russians to win election in 2016. The Republicans need to be sent packing from the courthouse to White House. That is the message that needs to be sent in the coming election, for Republicans in this ear only understand power. We need to give them some of it and kick them to the curb.
Donald Trump tried to overthrow our government. Then he was caught with dozens of stolen classified documents. It just never ends with this freak. He’ll get a great military parade in Red Square after he finally flees the country.
Trump’s childish behavior and a couple of bad Supreme Court appointments sowed the seeds for a Republican defeat, if not leveled the playing field! Voters are concerned about democracy and a women’s right to make decisions affecting her health.
Get ready for Roevember!