A poll out this week shows the political atmosphere for Republicans is still perilous. Donald Trump’s favorability rating continues to fall while support for impeachment grows. Overall, people are not very satisfied with the direction of the country, a warning sign for incumbents. 

The Meredith College poll tests registered voters as opposed to likely voters. That’s pretty standard this far out from the election. However, the poll also should skew slightly more Republican. Self-identified Democrats made up only 32% of the respondents while Republicans made up 33% and unaffiliated voters made up 30%. That seems a little too GOP leaning but not by much. In addition, only 14% of the respondents were black when African-Americans comprise more than 20% of registered voters in the state. The poll should be about as good as it gets for the GOP and it’s not good. 

Sixty percent of the registered voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country even though a majority thinks the economy is either excellent or good. While a plurality, 41%, think the economy will stay about the same, more (30%) see it getting worse than getting better (20%). If the economy is not the driving factor of their dissatisfaction, it must be something else.

Which leads to the president’s approval ratings. Only 40% approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job while 55% disapprove. That’s a big split and one that could be difficult to overcome in a year’s time. In addition, the poll was done before Trump capitulated on Syria, an event that’s been panned by members of both parties and the international community. 

The poll asks about head-to-heads between Trump and his Democratic opponents but it makes the mistake of giving respondents the option of “someone else.” If there were no other viable choices, that might be okay, but in the midst of a contested primary it makes the results less meaningful. In the poll, Trump is tied or leading all of the Democrats. However, supporters of Elizabeth Warren, for instance, would likely choose “Someone else” when asked to choose between Trump and Biden and vice-versa. The most significant take away from the head-to-heads is that Trump never gets above his approval rating of 39%. The 20% or so that would choose someone else would most likely break heavily for the Democrat. In other words, Trump is probably trailing the leading Democrats by at least a few points. 

In contrast, Roy Cooper is still popular. Forty-nine percent approve of his job performance and only 32% disapprove. Those are much better numbers than a poll just month or so ago. In addition, he holds a 12 point lead over Lt. Governor Dan Forest, his likely general election opponent. 

In the Senate race, both Erica Smith and Cal Cunningham are essentially tied with Thom Tillis. That’s another warning sign for Tillis. Nobody knows Cunningham or Smith yet so a lot of those supporters are probably just anti-Tillis. On the generic Congressional vote, the voters gave Republicans a statistically insignificant two point advantage. 

The best news in the poll for Republicans is that Thom Tillis is not losing and the Congressional vote gives them a slight advantage. Other than that, there’s not much good in it for them. The president is deeply underwater and people are not satisfied with direction of the country. At the state level, the Democratic governor is still popular and leading his main GOP opponent by a wide margin. Still, the state is evenly divided and 2020 will be a year of heated electoral fights.