Dr. Michael Bitzer has been doing more great analysis on registration and turnout in North Carolina. This time, he’s taken a look at young voters 25 and under. The behavior of these voters may well shape the outcome of 2018.
Among younger voters, Bitzer notes that they tend to stay home in off-year elections, though the percentage seems to be creeping up. In 2006, only 11% of 18-25 year old voters cast a ballot. By 2014, the last midterm election, that percentage had creeped up to 18%. In contrast, in presidential years, the percentage is reversed. In 2008, the Obama election was a high point when 62% of these younger votes showed up. By 2016, only 53% did.
By registration, younger Republicans are more reliable voters than younger Democrats. In both 2010 and 2014 midterms, 23% Republicans 18-25 turned out while only 17% and 19% of young Democrats made it to the polls. In presidential years, young Republicans turned at 60% in both 2012 and 2016. Democrats showed up 60% in 2012, too, but only at 54% in 2016.
Turnout rates among younger unaffiliated voters are even more abysmal. In 2010 and 2012, they voted at 12% and 14% respectively. In the last two presidential elections, only 48% of these voters showed up. They tend to lean Democratic, so those are more votes the party is leaving on the table.
With the exception of 2006, as the youth votes drops, so do Democratic fortunes. If Democrats want the wave they need to sweep them back into power in North Carolina, they’ll need a big assist from younger voters. To get it, Democrats need to give those voters a reason to come to the polls. Maybe this debate about guns and mass shootings will do it. Democrats need to hope that the energy we’re seeing at marches translates to voters on election day.
Democrats also need to adjust their communication strategy accordingly. They’re less likely to find and persuade younger voters with big TV buys or heavy direct mail programs. This generation increasingly lives online, not on the tube. They watch less than two hours per day of television. They talk to each other through snapchat and texts, not on the telephone. Almost 80% use people under 25 use messaging apps. People over 50 don’t even know what those are. The Parkland teenagers are so effective on twitter, because they’re native to the platform. It’s not something they learned. It something that’s always been there.
The rallies and online tools can keep a good portion of younger voters engaged, but Democrats need solid programs that move from online to offline. Social media is a means to organize. Boots on the ground is still the most effective way to put people in the polls. A field program run by and targeted at younger voters is key to Democrats success this fall. If they’re not making that type of investment, they’re missing an opportunity to shape the outcome of future elections, not just this one.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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