I don’t usually make too many political predictions because politics is so unpredictable. That said, I’m going to make some predictions about the presidential contest. My guess is when all the dust settles, we’ll have a rather boring campaign pitting two candidates who go by their first names against each other, Jeb! verses Hillary.
While Jeb! seems to be sinking in the polls and losing instead of gaining traction, he’s still got the largest war chest and the most experienced campaign. Modern elections are not sprints. They’re marathons. In 2012, we watched GOP presidential candidates come and go. Herman Cain had his moment in the sun. Newt Gingrich seemed to be relevant again for a brief moment. Rick Perry and his inappropriately named ranch were stars of the show. Rick Santorum’s Holy War made an appearance. Even Ron Paul saw center stage. Ultimately, the GOP went with the most establishment candidate, Mitt Romney. I think the same will happen this year and Jeb! is last cycle’s Mitt.
Donald Trump may be grabbing everyone’s attention now, but I still don’t think his act is sustainable. I’m not even sure he wants to be there anymore and I’m almost certain he’s going to get bored sooner than later. He’s turned the GOP primary into a reality show where he tries to insult as many people and groups as he can just to see what happens.
Part of me thinks that Trump cut a deal with Bill Clinton. Can’t you see the conversation? “Hey, Donald, what do you think of Jeb Bush and all those Republican candidates?”
“I think they’re a bunch of clowns. I could do better than any of them. I’d show ‘em how to get some action.”
“Think you could grab the attention of the whole Republican electorate for a few months?”
“Sure. I can do that. It might even be fun. The Apprentice has about run its course anyhow.”
Ever since then, he’s been doing Stephen Colbert except instead of being a blowhard right-wing pundit, he’s playing a blowhard populist presidential candidate. And the GOP electorate’s not smart enough to realize that he’s making fun of them.
At some point, though, the voters will get the game or Trump will get distracted. However, by the time that happens, most of the GOP candidates will have spent all of their hard-raised money trying to stay relevant. The only one with the cash to stay in the game is Jeb! and his SuperPAC buddies. So, he’ll be the last serious candidate standing when The Donald exits the stage.
As for the Democratic side, Hillary is about to roll. Biden is out of the way. The Benghazi Committee will fade into oblivion once she’s finished testifying today. Their overblown expectations of bringing down Clinton’s campaign came crashing down with admissions that the whole committee is political, not investigative and that Chairman Trey Gowdy is a less-than-honest broker. Today’s show will be anticlimactic.
I imagine Sanders will make it to Super Tuesday on March 1 but will not shoot at Hillary and she won’t attack him. After he’s successfully driven the Democratic agenda and secured a solid speaking spot at the convention, he’ll bow out, urging his followers to support Clinton. Martin O’Malley will stick around long enough to be a VP contender but won’t make it much past Iowa or New Hampshire.
In the end, we’ll have a status quo election, disappointing the activists on both sides of the aisle. We’ll return to what the Clinton campaign knew in the beginning: For all of the gnashing of teeth and criticism of being the corporate Democrat, the women are going to support her. The historic importance of electing the first woman president will settle in and the rancor of this summer and fall will be a distant memory. Finally, the United States will have Madam President.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Bernie is the first name we’ll probably see on the ballot in November, 2016 in the Democratic slot. Do you realize, Thomas, that while Hillary has been desperately and furiously spending her money, Bernie hasn’t yet spent a nickel on TV ads? You Hillary-happy pundits are in for yet another shock from the Sanders campaign. This campaign hasn’t even begun yet and Bernie Sanders has quickly become a household name competing tightly with the mighty corporate candidate from Wall Street. I don’t think you understand what Hillary is up against. Even mentioning the words “Wall Street” must make her campaign committee cringe. But they (and you) are going to hear those words increasingly in coming weeks and months, especially in the context of Hillary’s unfortunately revealing exclamation that she told those guys in Wall Street to “cut it out.” How did that work out for her (and us)? Bernie will speak freely about Wall Street, Glass-Steagle, campaign finance reform, corporate personhood, the Iraq War, DOMA, legalization of marijuana, criminal injustice and a host of other basicly important issues that Hillary can only try to avoid or divert from public attention with misplaced and futile attempts to label Bernie as a misogynist, pro-gun anthropomorph. But, when you have a 40 year history of progressive activism and voting records, without scandal, negative campaigns or dirty Political Action Committees, the truth tends to seep out from all seams when someone tries to distort and malign your record.
Am most looking forward to your coming back on this blog forum right after the 2016 Democratic Convention!
I assure you that I will either (a) enjoy your comments about Bernie’s nomination victory, or (b) take to heart your gracious and conciliatory remarks about how Bernie waged a good fight, but that you will be voting for HRC as the anti-GOP standard bearer.
Can’t wait!
You do promise to come back and post, right?
I think we saw the next president of the United States yesterday. She was brilliant and steely and I was reminded of why I have liked HRC since the early 90’s.
I love Bernie Sanders, but I want him in the senate, in his insanely liberal safe seat– legislating until he is in his 90’s.
And if she is considering anybody besides Julian Castro, his name better be Joaquin Castro. That is a dream ticket right there;)
I, too, am pretty sure that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Trump and then Carson fade, one or two others blip up and fade away, Jeb! finally bows out, and that by the Spring GOP primary voters will be supporting Rubio, as a “fresh face” with “new (same-old) ideas.” With his Florida billionaire’s backing, he won’t hurt for financing as long as his poll numbers are creeping up, and the GOP will think that he can be their savior with Hispanic voters: “See, we have our own Latino!” just as Sarah Palin proved they had a woman candidate like the Dems (and Carson and Cain prove they like Negroes, too).
Not to predict this far out, but I suggest that it might well be Clinton v. Rubio–in which case Clinton will probably choose Julian or Joaquin Castro as a running mate. (I almost wrote “one of the Castro brothers” but then realized the trolls would think of Fidel and Raul).
Clinton/Castro the REAL revolutionary ticket! Lmao
Right now, based on polling, either Trump or Carson will most likely win in Iowa. Should that happen, all bets are off as to what transpires in NH and in the early-March primary states, too. Again, at this moment, these two guys share the best odds of getting the GOP nomination–better odds than any others in the Clown Car Crew.
Writing these words is a sad commentary on the state of the GOP. Both candidates are unproven as political leaders, statesmen, or campaigners; both are in the bad habit of saying something totally inane or ignorant most every week; both have a xenophobic side (Trump with Hispanics and women; Carson with Muslims and other non-Christians); neither has shown any great interest in improving the middle class; and the major appeal either has is to the GOP’s closed-minded base.
lyg – you hit it on the head!
And Jeb ain’t gonna be there at the end. His campaign announced today he is cutting staff, costs, etc. Can you say death spiral?
This election, more than ever, I wish we could vote “None of the above”. If “None of the above” wins, there’s another election, and no one who appeared on the previous ballot can run (or the previous two ballots, or three, or whatever). There are well over 300 million people in this country, and we get this bunch of clowns to choose from? As my son says, “I fear for the republic”.
The best political prognostication is this, “Character does count–and the next President will be selected by the truly independent voters who will strongly influence the choices of both the Republican and Democrat primary voters. And, as far as you saying that “the women are going to support” Hillary–don’t be so sure. We have standards and values, too. One of them is not supporting a woman candidate who is an enabler for and married to a proven sexual predator–Bill Clinton.
“A proven sexual predator”? Excuse me?
Bill Clinton was a philanderer (like some 75% of married American men), but it was Miss Lewinsky who went after him in the Oval Office and assured her friends that she was going to put another notch on her bedpost after she had sex with the president. NOT the other way around.
Get your facts straight before you make accusations.
My facts are straight. There are a number of women in Arkansas who call him a sexual predator–including a nursing home administrator named Juanita Brodderick, a married lady who accused him of raping her. And she told her story on a major television network. I’m from Arkansas and one of my best friends, who was also an Arkansas city mayor, like me, told me how he made unwanted sexual advances toward her. And she, like me, was a married woman. You need to read the depositions in the Paula Jones lawsuit against Bill Clinton’s predatory behavior toward Ms. Jones when he was Governor of Arkansas. He paid a six figure damage settlement to her to close the case. As far as Ms. Lewinsky is concerned, Clinton would have been fired by any self-respecting corporate board for using his position to have an illicit affair in the Oval Office. He was her CEO and invited the attention–because he said, “I did it because I could.”. If that is not sexual predation–then I don’t know what you would call it. And, my comments were about the character of Hillary Clinton–a woman who enabled his behavior as his wife then– and continues it to this day..
Because he would be back in the White House with her. It’s a matter of character and conscience. They have neither. They are the ultimate vulgarians.
“Methinks you doth protest too much.” I have served (and do serve now) in public office and believe that those who represent “The People” should step up to the highest standard of personal conduct as a matter of public trust and private example.. Evidently, you do not. So be it. We will cancel out each other’s votes regarding Hillary Clinton’s ability to reinstall Bill in the White House– when, or if, that time arrives.
“…those who represent “The People” should step up to the highest standard of personal conduct as a matter of public trust and private example.”
LOL. I am afraid such a criteria leaves you with no one to vote for come November 2016.
TbeT, I am pleased to say that there are a number of personally honest and forthright people running for the Presidency in both parties. And, on the Democrat side, Bernie Sanders appears to be a guy millions of people will be voting “FOR” because he’s such an authentic and trustworthy person. Focus group participants have yet to describe him as a liar or untrustworthy.
MB:
Yes, Bernie seems to be an honest and straightforward guy, with his heart in the right place. If he’s nominated, he has my vote.
But, in your posts, you gave every indication that you’d not be voting for HRC if she’s nominated, and in that scenario, you’d be voting Republican (or maybe I presume too much?)
I do not view the GOP candidates as personally honest or forthright. In my opinion (and with the possible exception of Kasich), they are all prevaricating and callous people who don’t know the difference between the truth, fiction and propaganda, and are wholly uncaring about the disadvantaged or even those in the middle class. And as they falsify and deceive, their political platforms run the spectrum from extremely radical (Cruz, Trump, Huckabee), to possible insane (Carson, Fiorina), to elitist (Bush, Fiorina), to plagiarizing-and-just-plain-bizarre (Paul), to suffering from mental scatoma, i.e., having “blind spots” in their sense of self and character (Carson, Christie, and Rubio).
Just sayin’. Again, all in my opinion. And I’m pretty sure we disagree…….
Actually, TbeT, we are on common ground. We both like Bernie Sanders and John Kasich. They are both honest, mature, proven and experienced political leaders. After all–their state citizens keep re-electing them, right? And– I believe that either gentlemen would be a very capable, caring, and trustworthy Commander in Chief. However, you’re absolutely right that I will not be voting for Hillary under any circumstance.
I am a moderate, nice and totally sane registered Republican who spends some time reading Democrat websites to more fully understand the Democrat political thought process. I am also a social progressive and an economic conservative–which requires making regular tax dollar choices to find a fair center between those two competing forces.
Fortunately, the debate process and millions of independent voters who don’t give a damn about Party politics–will winnow the field to two. And that’s as it should be, They’re the balance beam for America.
Well, MB, we are really on the same page. You self-description fits me well. I guess we only differ in that if it comes down to HRC and any of the Clown Car crazies, I will definitely vote for Hillary, even though I would hardly call myself a fan of hers. The nation must not have a looney-bin GOP president rubber-stamping nutzoid legislation coming from potentially GOP-controlled Congress. It’s bad enough here in NC, where one has a spineless and not very bright governor rubber-stamping nutzoid legislation coming from a GOP-controlled NCGA!
Glad to know we think very much alike, TbeT. There’s hope for us yet!! (chuckling….)
One more reason to vote for Hillary, even if you have to hold your nose: the President nominates Supreme Court justices,and by Jan. 20, 2017, three current justices will be over 80 years old.
lyg, you are right about the next President probably appointing the next three Supreme Court Justices. However, there’s no appointment without the “advice and consent” confirmation of the Senate, (which is currently majority Republican). That forces the process to veer toward the right of center, which I approve.
And, I’d still never vote for Hillary because she has spent a lifetime living by the “Poll of the Moment” and triangulating for political purposes. And, of course, there’s always her lifetime “partner”–Bill Clinton–lurking in the background with all his sordid baggage and pulling her strings, as usual.
Supreme Court Justices have been appointed by both Republican and Democrat Presidents since the founding of our nation– and its long process of swinging back and forth on Constitutional interpretation will continue as it always has. So, voting for the worst Democrat candidate for President would, in my opinion, not be a wise action for our country. Our Constitution depends on it.
Post-2016, a conservative Republican in the WH, with a conservative Republican majority in the Senate (and House) offers the prospect of a nation being torn apart. Whole segments of the US population disenfranchised, mass deportations, women’s reproductive and workplace rights reversed, further income inequality, little chance of universal healthcare, worker/union rights suppressed even more, elimination of federal minimum wage, and Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid programs diminished and privatized.
Indeed, there will be a revolution, but not the sort that GOP firebrands currently like to envision. Rather, It will be one against federally-sanctioned regressive conservatism. (But maybe that’s just what the GOP wants anyway? Then it can further claim that the federal government is broken and unnecessary, further under-fund it, and further seek major constitutional changes?).
But as for your prospectus and opinions on the SCOTUS and its future justices, Melinda, I’ll offer this reaction:
-one mustn’t forget that the Senate could very well go back to the Democrats. Were that to happen, so much for any substantive “veering” to the right of center on the Court when/if new appointments need to be made in 2017 or 2018.
-yes, the SCOTUS has swung to-and-fro on constitutional interpretation since its founding. But, realistically, the “starting point” of the appointment/approval process will be in terms of the the judicial leanings –left or center or right– of whomever the POTUS proposes to fill a court seat. A Dem POTUS + a Dem Senate majority could likely result in a new Justice being left-to-center. On the other hand, a GOP POTUS + GOP Senate could likely result in a new Justice being right-to-center, but with the overwhelming influence of uber-conservatives among the GOP’ers in the Senate, more likely a new Justce would be right-to-far-right.
So, IMO, lyg is onto something. If one wants to avoid major national civil unrest and divisiveness, as well as a nation regressing head-long in its civil/voting rights protections, healthcare, and social programs, then steering clear of a GOP POTUS is the way to go.
I guess you will understand that I am progressive in my politics.
TbeT, I applaud and appreciate your very logical analysis of the SCOTUS situation that lyg originally outlined. And I understand your progressive thinking that “If one wants to avoid major national civil unrest and divisiveness, as well as a nation regressing head-long in its civil/voting rights protections, healthcare, and social programs, then steering clear of a GOP POTUS is the way to go.”
On the other hand, to my way of thinking, there’s a far simpler alternative that could suit your purpose right now.
Bill Clinton’s appointments–Stephen Breyer, age 77, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, age 82, could resign now permitting Obama to nominate two new Democrat inclined Justices without fear of the White House going GOP next year. That is, of course, if Breyer and Ginsburg agree with you, if they also fear for the future of the current Supreme Court, and if they are willing to retire for the good of the Nation to counter-balance a potential Republican Presidency.
Currently there are four expected Republican votes (Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Scalia), four expected Democrat votes (Kagan, Sotomayor, Breyer, Ginsburg), and one moderate conservative swing vote (Kennedy) that regularly determine the 5/4 decisions on controversial issues.
With two SCOTUS retirements now– perhaps you would not have to jeopardize the Democrat’s chances of winning by voting for Hillary as the Democrat nominee.
Just my opinion, of course. As you know, I’m a confirmed “ABC voter”–anybody but Clinton.
Melinda:
I truly do not believe that you are as naive as your idea suggests!
Were Ginsberg and Breyer to resign now, it is a certainty that the GOP majority in the US Senate would fight tooth-and-nail against anybody that Obama would nominate and would delay a vote until after the 2016 elections. The Benghazi fiasco, the IRS hearings, and the Surgeon General re-appointment process have all proven that the GOP will pervert and extend any hearing process ad infinitum for political purposes.
TbeT, thanks for thinking I’m not naïve. Actually, you and I agree that if Ginsburg and Breyer resigned now for health and/or personal reasons–there would be a fight by the Senate GOP to put Obama’s SCOTUS nominees through the ringer and delay, delay, delay.
However, according to Google, Gallup noted two years ago that 42% of American voters are independent. If Ginsburg and Breyer resigned now, and Obama put two nominees up for the American voters to consider during the primary election process–how big of a General Election issue would this be for both sides of the Senate aisle to face with the independent electorate demanding a balanced and sane Supreme Court going forward? How many Senate candidates would be trying very hard to run for re-election without alienating the massive middle of the road voters?
Personally, I think it would be the best thing to happen to America–running on the agenda to ensure that the Supreme Court continues to protect all Americans–not just the rich and powerful, etc. etc. etc.
Dg:
I think Melinda’s main point is that she won’t support HRC because she feels that HRC “enables” Bill’s philandering behavior. And that, to me, is a real stretch.
Many–MANY–married women, like Hillary, find themselves having to deal with such spousal infidelity; I know such women myself. Some of them still truly love their husbands, forgive them their past sins and shortcomings, and absolutely do not enable such behavior. I suppose that if someone wants to view remaining married in such situations as an “enabling” action, that’s their right. But I certainly don’t see it that way.
Disgusted, I have evidently pressed your hot button. So, let try to me clarify my thinking in more detail.
As a result of long years of observation and careful analysis, I believe Hillary is not a wise choice for President–whether one is a Democrat, Republican, Independent, Libertarian, or whatever.
I believe she will bring Bill Clinton back to the White House and enable him to continue pulling her strings– telling her what to do– and when to do it. She will do this because she is his puppet.
As such, she cannot be a strong, valiant and independent Commander in Chief. Bill will continue to twist and turn her toward whatever political wind is blowing to feed his own psychic benefit..
She does not have the depth of strength necessary to stand on her own two feet and steer our “Ship of State”.
I have clearly seen, over many years, her inability to exist and perform as a public figure without him as her “Master Puppeteer.” As such, I believe she enabled his narcissistic predatory nature because, as he has confirmed, “I did it because I could.” He could because she never stopped him and could not leave him in condemnation of his behavior.
I believe she is an emotionally and psychologically stunted woman– weak beyond belief. He is staging her now to wipe the dirt from his own slate. And make millions more in the process.
So, the question remains–is Hillary our best choice for America to move forward?
My answer is no. We can do better.
Disgusted, it appears that you are a proponent of the old playground taunt, “Just because you say it, doesn’t make it so.” Suit yourself, sir. I see with my eyes and you see with yours.
In the final analysis, it doesn’t make much difference what you or I think or feel. We’ll be cancelling each other out on voting day if she’s ultimately on the ballot..
By the way, did you notice that, in spite of her best efforts, she lost against Obama the last time she ran for President? And he was the untested rookie on the field of play with a very short resume of proven leadership. The voters didn’t trust her then, either.
Dear Disgusted. I haven’t made comments about women in general. I have only referenced Hillary Clinton’s personal ability to be an honest, effective, strong and trusted Commander in Chief.
However, if you want to debate the status of women in general–then let’s move to another blogspace elsewhere on the internet.
There we can discuss why there are so many physically and emotionally battered and abused women in this country and throughout the world. And, there we can examine the statistics of wife and/or female abuse, battery and and murder right here in Wake County,
Good morning, Disgusted. Having read your last missive declaring your current support for Bernie Sanders, I am closing our debate with my congratulations. You are currently supporting the best Democrat in the primary race–the person most qualified– having the best character, competence, and clarity of conscience on the issues. I truly hope you stick with him on Primary Election Day for President. Depending on who wins the Republican primary–Bernie could get my final vote too. On that we could agree.. He and his wife, as First Lady, would be honorable residents in the White House and able to make all Americans proud of our Presidency once again.
By the way, Disgusted, I neglected to suggest that you might be interested in reading a new book coming out by Nation Magazine Contributing Editor, Doug Henwood. It’s called “My Turn”, which was an outgrowth of his October 2014 Harper’s Magazine cover story entitled, “Stop Hillary”. It will give you an overview of the Clinton history from a nationally recognized liberal/progressive writer. A history I know well. It may reinforce your support for Bernie, and fill in your historical spaces on Hillary’s past and present.
Blaming Thomas for Bernie’s eventual defeat is rather ridiculous. Reminds me a bit of the McCarthyites of the early 1950s, who attacked CIA analysts who said that Mao’s Communists would win the Chinese civil war several years before they actually did. In the end the analysts got blamed for “losing China” when all they did was call it like it was. Some people just can’t handle the truth.
With all the downsides to what you predict aside, Thomas, I agree with you. While I’d prefer a Dem nominee with a far more progressive agenda and less baggage, what you forecast is still the most likely outcome of the nomination process (with, IMO, a Rubio nomination on the GOP side still in the cards somewhere).
But I am still hoping that The Donald extends his run long enough to “out” more and more of the GOP base as xenophobic and clueless nutzoids.
Of course, an even better outcome might be that somehow Trump wins the GOP nod — to delight of that crazy base, and to the dismay of his party’s establishment. He would be sliced and diced in any debate with HRC, and would have a very tough time gaining black, Hispanic and female votes. He would lose come November 2016.
A Trump nomination and presidential campaign would also reinforce the growing perception of the GOP as an extremist sect, weaken–hopefully once and for all– that party’s radical ideological veering to the ultra-right, and maybe even relegate the GOP to near-minority status for many years to come, which would be a very good thing, IMO.
Thomas, you are as blind and hoodwinked as most of the rest of the US. Public; no doubt the corporately owned and controlled US. Media has you as brainwashed as the others. The only two candidates that will do for you are the corporatist advocates because you refuse to acknowledge just how rotten the politics in this country are today. Both of the candidates you endorse by your purported prediction will continue and further the right-wing neo-con agenda of fascist authoritarianism, and you are inadvertently helping to promote that. Did it not strike you odd that Obama kept almost every neo-con from the Bush administration in their department positions in his administration? Einstein was absolutely correct when he said:” Two things are infinite, the universe and man’s stupidity, only I’m not sure about the universe.” Hillary is frightening in her own right – especially in light of her political record; the things coming out of Jen Bush ‘s mouth should have average Americans terrified. Enjoy the status quo of austerity for the less fortunate – which included most of us , accelerated environment degradation and US. imperialist war, you are part of why it’s going to continue unabated.
You’re wrong!
(Jeb’s first name is John, Jeb is just his nickname.)
Hillary supporters like Thomas are hoping for a Bush vs. Hillary contest, believing that Clinton will win, as happened with Bush-Clinton in 1992. Both are indeed flush with money. But Jeb is not getting any traction. My own opinion is that Donald will stumble (although he may not) and that Marco Rubio (and not Ben Carson) will be the Republican nominee. If so, I see Rubio beating Hillary in a close race. He has a clean, youthful image (like Obama had in 2008) and will appeal to the Latinos. I personally intend to stay true to the person who champions the interests of the middle class and the poor — Bernie Sanders. As we all know, it is a long time between now and November 2016, and all of our political predictions may come to naught.
#BernieOrBust #FeeTheBern #Bernie2016