Assuming the district lines don’t change again (which could be a big assumption), the title of this post aptly describes Renee Ellmers’ situation. Already embroiled in a heated contest for renomination, Ellmers now finds herself in a dramatically transformed district. And now it looks like she’s going to have to deal with an even stronger opponent: incumbent Representative George Holding, whose campaign announced he plans to run in the new Second, and against Ellmers, should the lines hold up.

The reaction from the Ellmers camp? Apparently, they’re really stunned that Holding isn’t just stepping aside and will instead fight to stay in Congress. The key quote, from a presumably horrified Ellmers spokesman: “Frankly, to want power that bad … it’s an extremely aggressive move.”

Clearly, the Ellmers campaign plans to depict Holding as an extremely aggressive, power-hungry male who is not afraid to invade a woman’s territory. It’s a silly line of attack but they don’t have much to go with. Ellmers can’t credibly run as an outsider or anti-establishment. Holding’s voting record in Congress is also more conservative than hers, so the gender card is the only thing left.

Moreover, the new Second is mostly Holding’s territory. Only 18% of the new district is from Ellmers’ old district – her home county of Harnett and a few precincts in Wake County. The legislature also added a portion of Johnston County, an area to which Holding’s family has ties.

Even further complicating Ellmers’ situation is the moving of the primary date to June. With no presidential contest or anything else at the top of the ballot, turnout will be terrible. A good number of people will be on summer vacation. The people who do show up will be the most active and informed conservative voters, which should advantage the candidate with the most conservative voting record.

The one saving grace for Ellmers might be that the new Second looks like the district she represented during her first term in Congress, to which she was elected in 2010. But that was a long time ago. Voters have very short memories. There’s also the fact that one of her former primary contenders in the old district, Frank Roche, is still going to run against her. Maybe the anti-Ellmers vote will be split. But I wouldn’t count on that being a significant factor.

It’s early and this might not be the final map, in which case this entire analysis is probably moot. But it’s very difficult to find a path to victory for Rep. Ellmers in this new district.

1 Comment

  1. delow241

    I am just glad I can now participate in getting Big Government Barbie out of Washington now! Even if it means putting/keeping a Holding family member up there, that can be dealt with in the future.

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