It's up to Biden

Only Joe Biden can put to rest doubts about his mental acuity

For most of the year, I’ve believed that if the economy is strong, people are working, their wages are increasing, and we’re not at war, Joe Biden would be re-elected. The choice is too stark and the alternative too frightening. Today, I have my doubts.

What’s happening in the country right now is disturbing. The Democratic Party is fragmented despite a strong economy and Biden’s remarkably successful legislative legacy. The president can’t get his approval ratings out of the dumpster, in large part, because he can’t consolidate his base. The press is harping on his age and it’s difficult to know how much of the coverage is driving the question or how much it’s a reflection of the public’s concern.

On the other side of the aisle, the GOP is falling in line. From Mitch McConnell on down, the Republicans are rallying their support behind Donald Trump. We’ve watched this show since 2016. The former president can do no wrong and he is not subject to any sort of accountability from his party. When he said he would not defend NATO partners and encouraged Russian aggression, the party faithful either supported the statement or pretended he didn’t mean it. The press largely ignored it. That’s what normalizing Trump looks like.

There are also two alternative candidates running who seem to be connecting with at least a portion of the younger voters who are an essential part of the Democratic coalition. RFK, Jr. and Cornell West are running to the left of Biden. Both are funded primarily with pro-Trump money, but younger voters are not savvy enough to understand the politics at play. I suspect West will not make it much longer, but RFK, Jr., could play a spoiler like Ralph Nader did in 2000.

Democrats have a lot of work to do. Despite what I have hoped, they can’t just wait for the economy to cheer everybody up. Too many Americans have lost or are losing faith in Biden to do his job. Young people are angry about his support of Israel in the war in Gaza. Other voters are unaware of his accomplishments because Democrats have failed to tell people about them. Age, though, is the biggest factor dragging Biden down and the Biden campaign has done a lousy job addressing it.

Biden needs to sell his record to the American people. When he was checking off legislative accomplishments, nobody took to the airwaves or the road promoting his success. Had Trump been in office, all we would heard for months was about how he was the most successful president in history. The Democrats just moved on. Today, people have forgotten the gun control legislation, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPs Law, and the Inflation Reduction Act and its impact on transitioning to a clean economy. Most people aren’t watching Washington that closely and are just moving from news cycle to news cycle.

Last week, the campaign and administration did little to convince the public that Biden is ready for a second term. First, the special counsel’s report painted a picture of a “forgetful” old man. Biden’s response was an angry press conference where he battled with reporters and confused Mexico with Egypt. The two episodes brought renewed attention to the fact that he turned down a pre-Super Bowl softball interview on CBS. Somehow, he’s got to shake the perception that he’s too old or at least that he’s more competent than the alternative.

Biden needs to be in public more often to reassure a skeptical public of his mental acuity. He should be doing interviews and probably some rallies. It’s his job to convince the American people of his ability and it can’t be done with 30 second commercials or memes of Dark Brandon. If Biden’s not up to that challenge, then maybe it’s time for an alternative scenario.

If Biden got out of the race, which I doubt will happen, his most likely successor would be Kamala Harris. While Harris might make a fine president, she makes a lousy candidate. She doesn’t connect well with voters. Her jokes usually fall flat and she seems to be trying too hard to make people like her. I realize women candidates have it tougher than men, but I don’t believe Harris can beat Trump.

Democrats have created a problem by front-loading primaries. By the end of April, most of the largest states will have held their primaries. If Biden decided to get out in March, like Lyndon Johnson did in 1968, only a handful of primaries would be left and most would have already closed ballot access. I guess there’s some scenario where the nomination gets thrown into a brokered convention, but that would leave a lot of uncertainty during a summer when Trump and the GOP could be building a campaign. And still, Harris would enter that scenario as the front-runner.

That said, a fresh face on the Democratic ticket could change the dynamics of the race. Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan would bring a strong record from a swing state, presenting a moderate candidate in the mould of Biden without the age. California Governor Gavin Newsome has been running for something all year and has shown charisma and fight. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is immensely popular and has shown he can deliver. Maryland Governor Wes Moore has star power, though he’s only been in office for year. There’s no shortage of good candidates on the Democratic bench. There are just logistical problems to getting them on the ticket and well-known enough to defeat Trump.

If Biden is to stay on the ticket, he will need to communicate more with the voters in less controlled environments. His campaign needs to do a better job of spotlighting Donald Trump and his foibles. At the very least, they need to bring more focus on Trump’s mental health. As I said last week, for Biden to win, the race needs to be either about Trump or a comparison of the two men. Right now, the race is about Biden and his ability to serve.

I don’t think Biden’s mental capacity is lacking. Too many people who work with him, including heads of state and Members of Congress, both Democrat and Republican, report they’ve seen no cognitive decline. But the campaign cannot rely on third party verification. They must convince the American people that the president is up for another four years. Only Joe Biden can effectively make that case. If he can’t, then we need to do something different—and fast.