Last week, the governor garnered some rare support from progressives with his bold vetoes of two controversial bills. This led to speculation that by distancing himself from the conservative legislature and firmly placing himself in the middle, McCrory would win increased support from moderates, assisting him in his reelection campaign.
That’s not an unreasonable theory. But so far PPP hasn’t found any evidence of it. In fact, they find that the governor’s moves have probably backfired. McCrory hurt himself with the conservative base while failing to significantly improve his standing with moderates. Let’s do a little digging into this new poll and see what we can find:
McCrory Approval
Numbers in parentheses = change since last poll in April
38% Approve (+2)
44% Disapprove (-1)
The general trend in the approval numbers is not cause for alarm. He’s gone from -9 to -6. Not good, but PPP concedes that McCrory’s numbers might improve further once the legislature is out of session. These numbers point to a toss-up race next year.
Cooper Favorability
32% Favorable (+5)
24% Unfavorable (+1)
Cooper’s numbers are stronger than two months ago. His name recognition is at least 56%. So long as McCrory’s approval is underwater, the GOP is going to have to drive up the Attorney General’s negatives.
2016 Governor
44% Cooper (+3)
41% McCrory (-3)
Now, this is not good. Cooper leads even though his name recognition is not that high. McCrory is at 41%, a dangerous place to be for an incumbent governor. If McCrory continues to move to the middle but his approvals don’t budge, it might be time to ask if voters have made up their minds on the governor and nothing he does will change their opinions of him. Right now, though, it’s too early to say.
Burr Approval
35% Approve (-1)
36% Approve (-1)
Nothing has changed since April, except technically Burr has gotten more anonymous. Typically, numbers like these indicate a reelection that will be determined by how the national winds are blowing. There’s just one problem for Democrats: they don’t have a candidate, and in the past Burr has proven to be a formidable candidate and a strong fundraiser.
Democrats’ Senate Candidates Favorability
Numbers in parentheses: net favorability. The number after that is change since April.)
Mike McIntyre 17/16 (+1) N/A
Grier Martin 10/11 (-1) +1
Dan Blue 16/18 (-2) +1
Jeff Jackson 8/13 (-5) +2
Kay Hagan 39/51 (-12) +4
Of the Democrats, only Mike McIntyre’s favorability is above water. But McIntyre just took a position with a law firm and is very unlikely to run. Kay Hagan is the best-known candidate but also the most disliked. Notably, all the candidates’ numbers have gotten better, but that’s probably due to a more favorable sample.
2016 Senate
Burr 43%
McIntyre 34%
Burr 49% (-1)
Hagan 40% (+2)
Burr 48% (+1)
Blue 34% (-2)
Burr 46% (no change)
Martin 31% (-1)
Burr 48% (+2)
Jackson 30% (no change)
Burr leads everyone. His leads range from 9 points to 18 points. McIntyre and Hagan come closest to Burr. From these numbers, it looks like McIntyre would actually be the strongest candidate of those included in this poll. He holds Burr to only 43% and he’s the only candidate with a positive favorability rating. But again, he’s not at all likely to run.
Lieutenant Governor
41% Forest (+1)
37% Coleman (+1)
In a potential Forest/Coleman rematch, Forest leads by 4, a lead identical to two months ago. Forest is probably the most high-profile socially conservative politician in the state, except for maybe Phil Berger. The difference is that Berger has a district that’s well to the right of the state as a whole while Forest has to run statewide. Forest probably has his eye on the Governor’s Mansion in the future. A healthy reelection for Lieutenant Governor would certainly give him credibility should he seek that office. But that’s not at all a sure thing, especially if Democrats run a strong campaign. More than any other political figure in the state, his reelection will be less about him and more about political forces outside of his control.
The bottom line: McCrory’s move to the center has yet to reestablish his moderate brand with voters, but it may have disenchanted his base. He’s going to have to walk a fine line if he wants to maintain the support of both groups. On the Senate side, Burr is showing strength that belies his relatively low numbers and general anonymity. And for Lieutenant Governor, Forest is favored in a rematch against Linda Coleman, even though he hasn’t shied away from social issues. Overall, not much has changed since PPP was last in the field two months ago. Interestingly, McCrory’s performance against Cooper seems to be converging with his overall approval rating. We’ll see if that continues in the months to come.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Polls don’t mean squat – they can be rigged to produce any desired outcome; however, voting machine ‘paper trails’ are a game changer and a must if we are to prevent the republikans from becoming the dominant, authoritarian ruling party of this conflicted country.
RE: PPP; ranked in top ten of US polls for accuracy in 2014 and even higher in 2012.
And of course his corporate masters won’t him too far off the leash. I mean, what’s he going to do without all that Koch-Kash?
Is anyone surprised by a.) PPP results? and b.) these results? Bueller? anyone?
I’ll agree with you about PPP, such that if I were McCrory, I wouldn’t be too concerned and if I were Forest, I wouldn’t take too much comfort. As for McIntyre, he’s the one Dem I can think of who actually would have a pretty good shot at either McCrory OR Burr because a lot of far right Reps would like to show either the door. But of course, the Dems are prioritizing purity over electability, and thus, it is highly unlikely that McIntyre is even an option.
I think it’s pretty late in the game for any McCrory “move to the center” to have much effect in voter’s minds. For better or worse, McCrory is tied to the NCGA brand in NC, which doesn’t look to get much better either. A couple of vetoes aren’t going to make much difference to the folks who aren’t political junkies, in fact most people won’t even notice. And for those who do notice, seeing McCrory veto bills from his own party, and get overridden, just makes him look weak.
Advantage Cooper. It’s not clear to me what McCrony could do at this point to improve his reputation. And it’s obviously not clear to him either.