Well, the first poll since the primary has come out, and it’s … pretty weird. The topline numbers are what you’d expect (Tillis leads by 1 point, obviously within the margin of error) but dig deeper and you find some things that question the validity of this poll.

Before I begin, it’s important to note that most candidates get a post-primary honeymoon stage, where they receive a temporary boost in their polling numbers. It happened to Kay Hagan in 2008, and it happened to Elaine Marshall in 2010, where she actually pulled within a point of Richard Burr in a Rasmussen poll. So I’d expect it to happen again to Thom Tillis. Most of the media coverage of Tillis has been that the GOP got their favored candidate, and that he’s Kay Hagan’s worst nightmare. PPP will be conducting a poll this weekend, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it finds Tillis ahead by a couple of points.

But let’s return to the Rasmussen poll. We haven’t seen a poll from them on this race since January, where they found Tillis leading by 7 points. Yeah, I thought that was pretty high too. This poll feels more in line with other surveys … and Democrats, of course, can feel free to say that Tillis’s 6-point drop is an epic collapse for his campaign.

But it’s in the sample where things get really weird. They have Obama with a 51/48 approval. With likely voters. Uh, no. And they also have McCrory with a 48/44 approval. That’s much higher than other polls. Where in the world do you find a sample of voters who think that both McCrory and Obama are doing a great job? If Obama’s approval rating is that high, then how is Hagan not running away with this?

Yeah, I wouldn’t put too much stock in this poll.

6 Comments

  1. Thomas Ricks

    RandGoldOwl secret knowledge says libertarians have ninja secrets to win..only they know the true constitution, only they know the true basis for economic activity or government or society…their superior morality will FINALLY show through and everyone will change their mind and vote L…which is NOT for Loser.

    • Ray

      Rasmussen’s ninja secret is to change the name of the guy they disapprove of, to “Some Other Candidate.” Don’t try to tell Rasmussen you want small government. They know what you want before they ask. They’re ninjas.

  2. cooldela1966Jimmy Rouse

    It is a little too early for polls. But Kay should win based on three important factors:

    1. She is the incumbent.
    2. She is a female.
    3. She has much more campaign money.

    Hard to imagine she would not win.

  3. Ray

    I wonder how much more than 5% Sean “Other Candidate” Haugh would have gotten, if the poll had been objective, by naming all three names like the ballot will. And what is Haugh going to need to get into the debates. Getting one ninth of the D or R showing (and quintuple the D-R difference) on less than a hundredth of the money & coverage is noteworthy.

  4. Paleo Tek

    Ha! That’s nuts. I totally agree with you, where is Ras finding these happy voters? In the current hyperpartisan environment, having Obama and McCrony both above water seems most unlikely. Rasmussen has a slight to moderate Republican “house effect” in their polls, so given that, and the nonsensical crosstabs, I’d read this one as “Advantage Hagan.”

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